Here we go, my 2 baht. I'm an American Citzen, who is studying as an exchange student in Thailand. Since I arrived, I have discovered that I Love my King, King Rama IX, the King of Thailand. But this.... I read this in the Bangkok Post... and This, regardless of the elections, who wins or not, this really troubles me.
The Following is CW BangkokPost, Your Money, Oct. 28-2547BE.
In Asian currencies we trust


MICHAEL PREISS

On the back of the US dollar it says; "In God We Trust". Trust in the US dollar, however, is increasingly being shaken by a fiscally irresponsible American government. Recently, news that the US government reached the $7.384 trillion legal limit on how much it can borrow had forced the Bush administration to shuffle funds among accounts and suspend some intra-government payments was not widely reported.

Nevertheless, every investor should pay attention to this and think of the long-term consequences and what it means for your portfolio and net worth, which most people still tend to calculate in US dollars.

The Congressional Budget Office said last month that the deficit was likely to be $415 billion in fiscal year 2004, which ended on Sept 30. That exceeded last year's $374-billion shortfall, the previous record in dollar terms. The debt ceiling covers about $3.5 trillion in publicly traded Treasury securities (more than 51% owned by Japan and Chinese investors alone), plus savings bonds and borrowings from the Social Security trust funds and government pension funds.

Congress set the first debt ceiling of $11.5 billion in 1917. It crossed the $1-trillion mark in 1981. While the US Treasury must sell debt to fund government operations until taxes are received, the rising deficit is forcing the Bush administration to ask that the limit be hiked for a third time in less than four years.

Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and US Treasury Secretary John Snow have both called in the past for Congress to eliminate the debt ceiling, noting lawmakers determine the amount of debt that must be sold when they approve government spending measures. By any account the US debt levels are unsustainable and one day sooner or later the day of reckoning will come.

Asian central banks led by The People's Bank of China, through the Asian Bond Market Initiative, are co-ordinating how best to diversify out of the dollar. They have become the marginal buyers, or de facto buyers of last resort, of excess US dollar balances in the global economy. Without these purchases, the dollar would be much lower in value versus Asian currencies and US interest rates would be much higher.

This is a potential nightmare scenario for any US administration. John Kerry raised this very sensitive political issue of how much the US depends on Asian creditor nations during his election campaign, very much to the displeasure of the incumbent President George W. Bush.

Global imbalances including the US current account deficit pose a risk to world economic growth and prosperity. Most of the imbalances are concentrated in the external account of the United States. Deficits observed in the mid 1980s led to a significant correction of the dollar.

This time, the magnitude of the problem is so much larger and if market sentiment for a weak dollar increases, there would be a rush to convert dollars into other assets and that could impair the inner workings of the international financial system. Hence, the need to expedite the Asian Bond Market Initiative.

In the meantime, something has got to give and the most elegant solution to China's complex economic challenges is to let the currency appreciate. Asian currencies including the Thai baht, Singapore dollar, new Taiwan dollar, Korean won and Japanese yen should all benefit from this and appreciate in line with the yuan. Once China lets its currency adjust, Malaysia is expected to follow suit and abolish the currency peg to the US dollar.

Especially if oil prices continue to stay at current levels or even rise further, Asian central banks will allow their currencies to appreciate and the soft-dollar block will dismantle.

Rising currencies would reduce the extent to which Asian economies are importing oil-related inflation. And inflation is one of the key challenges facing Asian' economies, foremost China.

I believe the Fed knows that real interest rates should be 2% at this stage of the business cycle, not zero/negative as they are now. This is why gold and commodities have soared in value as the capital markets reflect an extremely expansive monetary policy and the dollar has started to weaken again in earnest. The Fed will tighten in November, in December and several times in 2005. So I expect short-term dollar rates will rise above 3% when this interest rate cycle peaks.

Therefore, I believe the long Treasury bond is irrationally expensive at a mere 4%. With a rising inflation risk, a US trade deficit out of control, potential fiscal gridlock in Washington and a fragile dollar once China revalues, the risks in the US bond market and the dollar are rising exponentially. The US debt markets live in a fool's paradise. Put options on the Chicago long T-bond futures contract never looked so attractive to me.

So while you anxiously follow the outcome of the US presidential election, in order to stay Ahead of the Curve, do not lose sight of the economic realities that all signals seem to point to this: higher US interest rates, renewed dollar weakness and a subsequent rise of Asian currencies.

Michael Preiss is a Research Fellow with the Asian Bond Market Forum and a guest lecturer at the Graduate School of the People's Bank of China. He can be reached at: Michael@michaelpreiss.net



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Now having been able to see my homeland from a very diffferent point of view here in Asia... THAT worries me...
What do you all think?

Ok, well, you said Americans.

p.s. there is no constitutional seperation of church and state, only one imposed by a bad court call :-\\

i did mean americans, there are 8000 deaths and injuries of american troops in iraq combined.



Bad court call? the whole reason the pilgrims came to the US is because in england there was no seperation of church and state. The pilgrims were prosecuted by the state because the church basically ran it. No, i think it was a very good court call

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances..."

Thats what the constitution says, you can ignore the part after the semicolon but its the same ammendment.

In english, this reads, "You can't make a law that makes one religion the official religion, and you can't make a law that stops someone from practicing their religion"
There is nothing here that says "If I'm insulted by something I see in public I can sue!" And it Also says congress can't make laws, which would mean, that a Judge can display anything they want to display.

However, the law has been interpreted down the line by court decision that said "sepereation of church and state"



What about marriage is a secular issue? Why does your spouse get benefits more than your kids? Why does your spouse get benefits more than your mistress/boytoy who's been the one really keeping you happy in the office?

Depends on how you define injuries, there've been what, 1100ish deaths.. Certainly not 6900 lifethreatening injuries.

And no, they came to escape a state-mandated religion. That doesn't mean that there's seperation of church and state in the sense that you and most others use the word.

I think I'll chime in again here and point out some interesting history. Sometimes it seems schitzophrenic on what they wanted when they made the Constitution.

For example, John Adams once said, "Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people," and also "It is Religion and Morality alone, which can establish the Principles upon which Freedom can securely stand". Also, it is not very prevelent on the federal documents other than the Declaration of Independence, but it is interesting to read state documents for religious connotation. For example, I was very surprised to see the preamble of one very early state explicitly say that the state's people are "grateful to Almighty God for our freedom".

On the other end we had deists like Thomas Paine, who found religion downright distasteful. He explicitly advocated to creating a secular government. After the US revolution he felt his goal had been successfully achieved and went to Europe to insight a few more revolutions, which did not work out as well as he planned. Upon returning to the US, he was disappointed to find that the religious-neutral government he advocated was not, or so he believed, due to popular belief in seperating the two. Rather, he bitterly accused (I believe in "Age of Reason") that because America had so many competing religions within small confines that no one single religion was able to dominate the others, and each would rather have no sanctioned religion than have it be "the other guy's religion".

The government has a very fascinating history on-line on how the founders debated this very topic when they drew up our Constitution: Library of Congress.

People focus on the 8000 or so deaths of service men and women in Iraq. Before the conflict, there were many many more. If you can get hold of a book called Cyber Gypsies (Indrah Singh I think is the author), the descriptions of the Kurds under gas attack is sickening and fair play to a country like the US that stands up and steps in. If this war results in a stable country after both the UK and the US spent so long messing it around then the whole excercise has been worthwhile.

Having said that, no-one's stepping in to Sudan or Burma and JeeDubia only pushed into Iraq because France and Russia were first on the bankroll for oil when the sanctions were to be lifted. (France and Russia were the most vociferous opponents of the invasion)

For this and the whole f##ked up US foreign policy (it is no joke how stupid and shallow the stereotypical American is now portrayed on the other side of the Atlantic, and I know enough americans to know otherwise) there are a few hundred million europeans praying for the democrats. I seriously do not know anyone this side of the ocean who wants to see the stunted little nutcase on our news screens for another 4 years.

A little englander's rant. Sorry.

Well.. I happen to know a lot about History and the U.S. Constituion, I'll let some of you in insight:

It says in the Constitution that everyone is born equal, but, there is something false about that. Not everyone is equal, men and women are not equal in America (Before you feminists yell at me, read the next sentence), a bill to make men and women equal has been proposed in COngress but never passed, why? That means women will not always get the child in divorce cases, they won't get paid so much for child-support, they'd have to be more self-reliable. Many Political women have voted against this bill for reasons like those, there are many others, but you get the point from it.

Plus, nowhere in the constitution it says Church and State are separate, it only says people have the freedom of religion. The Patriot Act strips freedoms from muslims some America, but more then 90% of those muslims are not citizens of America.


I'm voting for Bush.

Not only did you insult the President of the United States (Who should always be given respect, not because of him, but because of the office he holds), you also insulted every American. Bravo Englander. Sometimes I wondered why America would bother with England, when they hate the Americans.

Three words.

I. Am. Canadian.


No voting for me!

-Etanru

When i posted I realised that my comments were disrespectful not only to your president, but also to everyone who supports him. For this I sincerely apologise.

My views might appear strong for someone who is not directly affected by results in the US elections but I am not inaccurate when I suggest that the overwhelming majority of people in Europe share them, or are at best ambivalent. The US foreign policy is reported this side of the Atlantic with something approaching disbelief. How can a country that has the largest ecological footprint per capita anywhere in the world ignore Kyoto? What was the U-turn on steel import tariffs all about? Who mentions the roadmap for middle eastern peace any more? Why is someone like Michael Moore seen as the only voice of reason coming out of America. To most people's mind, all of these half truths and cock-ups are down to the guy in charge. The last thing I want to do is offend anyone's political views or try and sound like a voice of authority on your country's politics, but the results of this election will have an effect on how America is viewed overseas and I would personally like the relationship to be good, particularly between yourselves and the one country that has stood at your shoulder through thick and thin in the Iraq situation. It's for these reasons that I would vote George Bush out.

You comment about the Sudan? and Other places we arn't going into? You can blame the U.N. for that. They were going to go help and send in food, but then they decided it was too dangerous to help people. Then the African Union asked the U.S to send troops, at the same time condeming the U.S for going to Iraq.

The corruption in the UN as easily seen by its Oil for Food program, and its desire to fund the investagion with the money IN the oil for food program is just disgusting.

You can't have it both ways.

America is one of the ONLY countries I know of, that do what they think is right and help other nations because that nation needs help, and not because of some deal its making, and they don't not help people cause it might hurt another deal it made. The others tend to be countries that support Bush and America in its current effots.

You seem to be trying to have it both ways. If the US doesn't help, it's the UN's fault. If it does, it's the US's credit. The US ignored the UN on Iraq, so why not do the same for the Sudan or Zimbabwe? After all both distinctly need help yet the US (and the UN too, it's hardly blameless but it is pretty much paralysed by the conflicting interests on the Security Council) does nothing.

the U.S did not ignore the UN in going to Iraq. The U.S was the one who spearheaded the coalition to be the ones to enforce the Resolution the UN had earlier passed. For the U.S to help in Sudan, it would have to get permision from someone unless it planned on declaring war.

Since the UN voted, and had allready agreed to a course of action in the Sudan, it could have been fixed. However, the UN had to pull out for its own reasons. This is similar to the case in Serb/Albanian conflict, where the UN declared a city to be a safehaven and had a dutch army supporting it. When the city got massacred and the Dutch asked to go save them, they got told by the UN that they were "peace keepers" and were not to get involved and help the civilians.

What I'm suggesting, is that you don't ask the U.S to solve all the worlds problems, while at the same time condeming it for what it does try to do. And if you want the U.S to solve all the worlds problems, give it the resources it needs to do so, and the political environemtn in which it is safe.

oh, and some outrage at the inafectualness and corruption of the UN might be nice to hear from places other than people I know. I think Fox just now started at hinting at how bad they are.

This is interesting news. You ARE aware that the UN would not support the US military action in Iraq, despite the bucketloads of false intelligence that was handed to them by Rumsfeld?

There's so many things that are screwed up about Bush's actions it makes me cry to think about it. The plummeting dollar, budget deficits rising, taking away citizens' fundamental rights through the patriot act, approving use of torture on Guantanamo bay, failing to heed the warnings of an incoming 9/11, anti-abortion and anti-gay legislation, running the errands of the big corporations (anyone who wants to argue this point, send me a message and we can have a little chat), ignoring the entire international community, being a puppet of his cabinet and advisors, bringing US troops into the Quagmire of Iraq, and so on and so forth.

Basically, Europe hates Bush, that much is certain.

It's important to know that Europe hates Bush, not the Republicans, not Americans. The UK's alegiance with the USA has hardly ever come into question before and it's a shame to see it damaged so much now.

ive been gone for 3 days, so im a little behind on the argument

i cant get the quote, but someone said that there wernt 6900 american life-threatening injuries. while thats true, it still isnt fun getting shot in the leg, or anywhere for that matter

Well Usama Bin Landen just came out and said any state that votes for Bush will be a target for terrorism. If that isn't a reason to vote for Bush I don't know what is.

"There's so many things that are screwed up about Bush's actions it makes me cry to think about it. The plummeting dollar,"
-- That would be because of 9/11 not bush.
" budget deficits rising," -- That happens during war. there has never been a non deficit budget during wartime, at the same time, economies always get better during wartime, as this one has and is continuing to do so.
" taking away citizens' fundamental rights through the patriot act" --Name one fundamental right that has been removed. As far as I know, the library is not a right
", approving use of torture on Guantanamo bay," -- You definition of tortue must be the same as the definition of interagation.

"failing to heed the warnings of an incoming 9/11" -- That would be the entire world's fault, nobody payed attention to Israel. And If you want to get picky with the U.S that would be Clinton's fault who did not take head when the towers got bombed in 93 and reduced Military funding, headed by Kerry.
" anti-abortion and anti-gay legislation" -- Saying that you don't want activist judges is not anti anybody legistlation, and reconfirming the definition of a marriage, is not anti-gay. Gay people can get married just like someone who's not in love with someone can get married.
"running the errands of the big corporations (anyone who wants to argue this point, send me a message and we can have a little chat)" -- Haliburton has been agknolweded by everyone to be the ONLY U.S company that can handle the type of job needed to be done in Iraq. Its a VERY niche market. And its monopoly on the situation is what gave them ability to be corrupt, which the BUSH administration, is investigating. Crime Haliburton commited under the Clinton administartion were ignored by him, it was only under Bush's cabinet that the company became investigated.

"ignoring the entire international community" -- I didn't know that Europe was the entire international community, last I knew, Japan, Poland, Austrailia, Philipines, Mongolia where all also part of the Internatinal community

"being a puppet of his cabinet and advisors" -- Show me one once of proof of this, or even hint that its true. Bush has gone through many advisors in his time, often removing them if they don't see the issues the same way he does. That would indicated that he's a bullheaded stubborn person, not a puppet.

"bringing US troops into the Quagmire of Iraq, and so on and so forth" -- I just had the opportunity to talk to a JAG reservist, who was very clear that Iraq is FAR from a quagmire and that the Miracle that is the new Iraq, is something everyone should be happy about. Just like any country in the world, Iraq does not have a monolithic opinion but when a judge says "You mean I can make up my own mind, and use my own judgement?" and has a look of bewilderment and confusion.. Its a good day for the world.

Next time your going to bash someone, Use facts, not rhetoric and hearsay and rumors. Its not nice to people who don't have the time to research everything you say.

And the UN resolution I was speaking about was the one written in the 90s not the one voted over in 2002.

The only reason you hate Bush, is because people lie to you and you believe them.

Geez, that was good timing then wasn't it? Do you guys have reverse psychology in the States?