Vote Daganev.

Well, last time a guardian spoke up and I argued that he probably wasn't a guardian because why the hell would a guardian speak up, everyone jumped on me and had me killed and it turned out that he actually was a guardian after all. Of course, knowing that Eldanien was believed last time, it makes sense for one of the Soulless to claim to be the guardian. I want to know who Daganev's 'Seer' is, after all if he's protecting them it should be safe for them to come forward, if they exist. If they don't, and no one convinces me that I shouldn't, I'm gonna go for Daganev.

I like that logic and will vote Daganev also.

Day 3

Daganev - 6 (Annelia, Shiri, Kashim, Shoshana, Shamarah, Rauros)
Shiri - 3 (Nyla, Jalain, Daganev)
Anonymous - 1 (Tsuki)
Tsuki - 1 (Summer)

You missed Rauros voting Dags there, Soll. It's:
6 - Daganev
3 - Shiri
1 - Tsuki
1 - Anonymous

>_< BOLD VOTES, PEOPLE

It's not like we can be sure if you're an Elder or Soulless, Shoshana. And the Seer definitely shouldn't reveal their identity on forums now that Daganev has revealed his. If the other guardian doesn't believe Daganev, or is already dead, and Daganev dies this day / next night, the Seer will be next to die too.

I have a question for Daganev though. Assuming he's a real Guardian, how can he be sure that the Seer who contacted him is a real Seer since he's a Guardian.

And no, Eldanien wasn't exactly believed the last time, except by a very few people. It was more of a "we'll wait and see" attitude until the Soulless made the mistake of trying to kill him in the night.

By my logic:

If Daganev is a Soulless, none of those voting for him (unless they change their votes at the last minute) is likely to be a Soulless, since they'd be in effect voting one of their own off.

If Daganev isn't a Soulless, at least some of them voting for him will be Soulless. As it would be a lot riskier to kill him at night, if they can get him voted off this day or the next, it'll look as though whatever he said is invalid.

Assuming Soulless and Elders all have an even chance of being voted off (since it's more or less random without any proof), there's 4 Soulless, 1 Seer, 1 Guardian (unfortunately for Dag) and 8 Elders left. That's more than enough to swing votes whatever way they want unless the Elders band together. (I'll elaborate more on the maths if anyone wants to know.)

Right now, with 6 votes going to Daganev, I'd say it's likely that they _want_ us to kill him off, which means that Daganev is an Elder, whether or not he is a Guardian. What's the chances of 6 out of 10 Elders (remember that there are a few not voting) all believing that Daganev is lying? The Soulless don't even all have to vote for the same person. Just enough of them need to vote to ensure that he gets killed off.

Conclusion: Daganev is not Soulless.

Changing my vote from Tsuki to Shiri, or whoever has the next most votes, even if it is myself.

Edit: Just realised a flaw in the maths. I took it that Soulless have an equal chance of dying in the night when they don't. So that means there's probably less Elders and more Soulless (which means they're all still alive if we're really unlucky).

The maths if anyone cares / wants to help me check:

Night 1: 0/19 chance that it was Soulless.
Day 1: 1 / 18
Night 2: 0/17
Day 2: 1/16
Night 3: 0/15

(1/18)*(1/16)= 5.6% * 6.2% = 11.8% chance that we voted off 1 Soulless. And that's assuming that the Soulless don't try to swing votes to non-Soulless too.

With such a low chance, I'd say it's pretty good odds that all 5 Soulless are still alive.

Therefore, out of the 14 people left: 5 Soulless, 9 Elders.

Since none of us (other than the Seers / Guardians) themselves know who is or isn't Seer / Guardian, they the same equal chance of dying in the day / night as any other Elder:

Night 1: 4 / 14 chance of a Seer / Guardian dying (28.6%)
Day 1: 4 / 18 (22.2%)
(Reduced Seer / Guardian by 1 since chance is over 50%)
Night 2: 3 / 12 (25%)
Day 2: 3 / 16 (18.8%)
Night 3: 3 / 11 (27.3%)
(Reduced Seer / Guardian by 1 since chance is over 50%)
Day 3: 2 / 11 <- Odds are, we have 1 Seer and 1 Guardian left, with a relatively okay chance of having 1 more Seer / Guardian.

So of the 9 Elders, it's either i) 6 Elders, 1 Guardian, 1 Seer, 1 Guardian or seer, -or- ii) 7 Elders, 1 Guardian, 1 Seer.

3 have not voted. With a 5:9 ratio, probability is 1 inactive Soulless, 2 inactive Elders.

Conclusion 1: 4 voting Soulless, 7 voting Elders.

If the Elders have a 50% chance of believing Daganev, 3.5 of the votes for Daganev are by Elders. But he has 6 votes.

Conclusion 2: 2 or 3 of the votes for Daganev are by Soulless.

Since the Soulless likely wouldn't vote off one of their own:

Conclusion 3: Daganev isn't Soulless.

... That's a really really good point, if a little pessimistic. Then again, even if he is a Soulless and it is all Elders voting for him, there would surely be several people trying to defend him and keep him alive. Hmm...

I'm going to see what happens for a bit before changing my vote, seeing as there is still a while before the day ends, isn't there?

Yeah well, just going by maths, which doesn't take into account all the suspicion etc etc.

The other scenario being that Daganev _is_ Soulless, and therefore, anyone voting for him is _not_ a Soulless, and most of the rest of us who are voting for someone else are Soulless.

Using the same maths, assuming Daganev is Soulless:
3.5 Elders who believe he is not Soulless, and 3 other Soulless defending him.

Total: 7.5 (including himself) who will not be voting for him. Right now, there are 5.

Conclusion: He's short of a few votes to be a Soulless.

If Soll keeps to the 24 hours extension, there's another 5 hours to go.

Then again, it's not to say that Daganev definitely isn't a Soulless. How many of us are voting for Daganev _just because Jack said so_? Since Jack is dead, and screaming to vote for Daganev, odds of Elders believing Jack and voting for Daganev is probably higher than 50%.

*ponder*

That said, it's entirely possible that I'm the only non-Soulless among the 5 _not_ voting for Daganev. Assuming you believe I'm not Soulless of course. Or you can just kill me off with the rest.

I'd say that today will be the deciding day. Either you believe that

1) Daganev and Seer are real, and follow their vote, or
2) Daganev is Soulless, and vote off everyone not voting for him

Soulless: Shiri, Shamarah, Rauros, Shoshana and either Kashim or Summer

Evidence? Reasoning? :/ I'm fairly sure Daganev's one, or else the seer he's relying on is (I'm gonna guess Nyla or Jalain here, simply because they're voting with him, but I'm not sure.) Aside from that, I'm not entirely sure. Shamarah's been awful quiet, but I don't think that's much to go off. Thing is, I don't suppose you guys can really go along with that, 'cause unlike me you're not positive I'm not a Soulless. So if I was you, I'd think Daganev (Shoshana explained why and I didn't really understand Summer there ), Shoshana, Shamarah, Lyren, and Annelia. Or Rauros. Hm.

Ack, Shiri don't point finger at me.. My reasoning that Daganev is a soulless cause its just too convient for him to pop up and say he is a guardian as soon as it starts pointing his way..
Although he could be telling the truth its a chance I am willing to take. Either way the 'seer' is unknown.

My reasoning for your potentially being a Soulless is that you're keeping quiet, and we've used that as reasoning before. I can't really tell either way, but you're just one of the more inactive ones, so it makes sense to say that. :/

Meh, I don't have much to say on any board, this one is just voting and hope that since there -isn't- a system that we might get a bullseye.

Acutally Daganev is a guardian. Shiri is a soulless. The others I just added because they voted for Daganev and they are trying to get rid of a guardian.

Anyone else realised how close the Soulless are to winning? (Assuming my maths is right about there being 5 of them left.) If we vote for the wrong person twice more in a row, they win.

You know, coming out with random stuff like that without any evidence or anything doesn't make YOUR position particularly strong either.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Summer.