Couldn't give you a precise answer but it's really, really unlikely. It almost may as well never happen.

"Probably not that often" seems about right from where I'm sitting too. The figure 1/28 springs to mind but I think that's something completely different I worked out about astrology.

Well, I don't think it's that unlikely!

My personal guestimate is 15%-20% of the time (1 in 5 or 1 in 6). This assumes villages have an equal chance of going into play in any of the signs (which could be wrong).

Wait, wouldn't it just be 1/12? On any given day the sun will be in one sign out of 12, so we'll call that fixed. The chance of eroee being in the same sign at the time are 1/12 too, assuming it has a circular orbit rather than an elliptical one. Right?

1/12 is right Shiri

Maybe 1 in 12 is correct. I won't embarass myself further by trying to explain how I got my guestimate. But... but... surely, it can't be that simple? The Sun travels through the entire zodiac belt in one year and Eroee takes around 3 months, give or take some retrograde slides. Is it just 1 in 12 or is there some other algebra to figure this out?



Anyway, if it appears that it will almost never happen, we can revisit how the Eroee Ritual works.

Right. I was basing my assumption on a measure of the average rate of holding of each of the villages and extrapolating forward based on their current standing. I got numbers closer to 1/30, which means we might not see it happen for a good 3 or 4 months.

The chance that two bodies will be in the same place at the same time when they have orbits X and Y has to be mroe than 1/12, in my opinion. I don't know the actual equation - maths was never my thing - but I'm almost sure it is more than 1/12

EDIT: The sun spends 30 days in each sign (months are 30 days long in Lusternia, right? I'm not making things up?) and Eroee spends 7.5 days in each (I think). Does that help?

It's got to be more than 1/12. Eroee would be in conjunction with the sun every 4 or 5 months. Right? Because it's in conjuction one month, then three months later it's back to the first sign, by which time the sun has moved three signs, and it would take Eroee about one more month to catch up... so four + a bit.

Oh, wait, so retrograde slides -actually- move the planet back? See, the way I read the help files, it says "appears to move backwards in its own orbit" rather than "DOES move backwards on its own orbit."

If the latter is actually the case, you can just ignore what I said, since I have no clue. But if you think of the sun sign as a given for any particular month, the eroee sign has a 1/12 chance of being the same. It will probably not be random, per se, though.

If it's anything like real Astronomy, then planets don't move backward in its orbit. Retrograde is the -appearance- that it does. So I think you're right.

Eroee has a 1/12 chance of being in any sign, so does the sun, but the chance of them being there at the same time?

Okay, so I didn't really understand much of A level maths, but the way I see it, you don't need to find the chances of them being in a GIVEN sign, you just basically have to find the chances of Eroee being, essentially in the sun. Which is 1/12.

A Lusternia year is 300 days. A lusternia month is 25 days long.

The Sun goes through the entire zodiac in 12 months (300 days).

Eroee goes through the entire zodiac in roughly 3 months (75 days).

Now, then, is there any math or astronomy geniuses that can tell us the approximate percent chance on any given day that Eroee will be conjunct the Sun.

AND, as a bonus question, can you tell us the percent chance on any given day that Eroee will be EITHER conjunct OR trine the Sun?

25 days a month, I knew that.

I was wrong, it's 1/16 or about 6.25%. This is because Eroee changes sign once every six (and a quarter) days. Even though they conjunct three times a year, Eroee moves out of conjunction pretty fast. If you add in trine, they align once a month, so 6.25/days out of 25 days/month = 1/4.

On top of that, are we talking about the day when a village starts revolting, or does it change mid-way, or what?

Ragghh. Math make Bricriu smash things, I never feel confident in my equations.

It seems really tiny to me, though.

Maybe each of the 6 villages should claim one of the 12 signs Eroee runs through, and if it so happens that it revolts when Eroee is on their particular sign, they're peaceful for influence?

Whoa, a Bricriu!

I had thought Mav's math was right but then I realized it was dependent on the start conditions. Then I realized he was right after all. Based on that I constructed the following chart, which shows the next year's zodiac positions numerically for Eroee and the Sun. Note that this should coincide to every year as the patterns are in fixed ratios.



Given this chart, there is a 6.25% chance that Eroee and the Sun will be conjunct over the course of the year, as Mav suggested, as well as the 25% chance that Eroee and the Sun will be either conjunct or trine.

However! Let's also not forget to take into consideration that this is just the chance that they'll be either in conjunction or in trine. The percent chance that a village under which this will affect will revolt in any of these days is far less than averaged out over the course of the year, the way the cycles are. Several of the possible dates can almost be ruled out entirely for some of the villages.