Well, Ye of Little Faith had a lot of alarms going off... and he turned out to be bad, so you can't rule out the possibility.

It's very possible that we wouldn't have found a cult yet. Night one, it was a two out of twelve chance that the cult member died (assuming that recruiting occurs before deaths). Last night there was only a three out of ten chance of it being a cult member going down. Odds aren't even on our side for finding one yet.

I have a question: As far as the mafia knows, the serial killer is an "innocent," right? They don't know who it is? Makes it more difficult to analyze the voting patterns if they each thought that one was as good as the other.

I asked the same question to our mod and she said Mafia doesn't know who's the serial killer (whose goal is to kill everybody but himself).

The SK is tricky to read, but possible.

First, Iridiel's got it: Mafia not only doesn't know who the SK is, they want him dead asap. The SK would think likewise. As such, it's in both side's best interest to lead the townies to good conclusions in offing them.

How to judge the votes (I'm doing just this while I'm typing) is to realize that the mafia can't just jump down and try to slaughter a townie, since when they get lynched it auto-suspects them. Killing the SK, though, is a 'good thing' so the mafia will go out of their way to get them lynched.

I'd also look at the votes for Dag, though I dislike bringing the topic of him up. He was looking VERY scummy there, so it makes him a safe pick for the kill.

Of course I think I just dumped suspicion on almost everyone in the game. BLAH!

Alright, I know my next step. Xenthos, I'll shine the light of judgement on you. It's partialy do to you having things too easy at the moment. I'll admit it's a semi-random vote, though but it's the best I've got so Vote: Xenthos

Cwin,

Could you rephrase your last post because I notice a rather nasty contradiction in it. I'm not sure if it was a mistake or what... but I think you should clarify:

How can you be talking about how the Mafia will vote after the SK when you said a line above it that the Mafia does NOT know who the SK is. That just doesn't make sense unless you either got confused or you know more than you are saying.

I'd like to know what you mean by "having things too easy"? I'm no better off than yourself, or Narsrim, or Iridiel, or basically anyone else except for Kiarlea who has drawn a fair bit of attention so far... unless you're referring to the fact that I haven't voted yet, which is because I am not convinced that Kiarlea is guilty and I'm not willing to vote on gut instinct at the moment.

My impression of the YoLF / Daganev vote is that, as far as the mafia was concerned, both of them were innocent (and thus, enemies). I doubt they had more information than that, which meant that it wouldn't matter to them which one got lynched. My gut feeling here is that most of them would have gravitated towards YoLF, with the hope of letting Daganev mess up another day if he survived the night, but they were likely split amongst both targets. That's why I said analyzing it wouldn't yield us much information, unless one of you can pull more out of that than I.

If the mafia had a scryer and knew who the SK is, then the mafia would go after him as fast as possible.
That's logical.

Scryer is a town role. The Mafia already knows who is with them and who is against them.

Wasn't in the other game that one of the mafia could scry the name of people and their profession? Like dwarf insertnamehere Ambassador of wherever.

Helped them be more credible.

Furthermore, why would the Mafia just not kill the SK if they had a scyer on some odd chance instead of "the mafia will go out of their way to lynch the SK" as Cwin put it.

Vote Cwin

You tend to come off to me as a logical person (at times, I think you try to be too logical) but this makes absolutely no sense.

There's that... uh, name checker? Whatever that role is, it gives the name of somebody. However, it doesn't give a role (so far as I know) or it would be extremely powerful, so they would have had to guess that Lolly Pringle was a serial killer. That seems a little far-fetched to me, I don't remember Lolly as being quite so aggressive.

By the way, Narsrim, I really doubt that a mafia would throw out a vote like that at this stage of the game with such a flimsy excuse. It's just... too obvious. Though as I said, with YoLF, sometimes they do stick their necks out.

If it says Lolly Pringle, poisonist and then she's not on their side they might get some idea.

But yes, must admit, Cwin claim was too well informed or just guessing madly like I am doing. That part about lynching before killing at night...

Well, that's my point. I think they can see "Lolly Pringle," but not the "poisonist" role, else they'd be able to find any power role on our side with the same ability. If this is wrong, please let me know, since this is the assumption I'm operating under at the moment.

I'm honestly not sure, Xenthos.

With regards to Cwin, I don't think it was intentional to put "too much" information on the table, but it happened. I'm more than willing to hear a good explanation and drop my vote if it makes sense, but as it stands, Cwin just seems to have some "insider" view on how things are working, which worries me.

Specifically, I don't see how Cwin could state such things as "the mafia would have tried to get this person they didn't know lynched instead of killing him, etc..." without something to back it up with.

Looks to me like Cwin is just thinking a bit too much and getting caught up in her own theories a bit, more than any 'insider information'.

Anyway, I'm going to work, I'll be back tonight to do more than skim this, and then have some thoughts.

The mafia doesn't know who the SK is. That's true. They have to figure it out the same way the townies do: Look for who is acting 'scummy' and lynch them.

As such, when YOLF acted scummy, the mafia knew that YOLF wasn't one of them, but also knew that 'something was up with this guy'. Link both together and you have "Perhaps he's a SK/Cult/other family of mafia." The day looks MUCH brighter then, since you can honestly hunt after the 'bad guys' along with the town, and hopfully kill off one of the rival baddies in the process.

In short, no, the Mafia can't tell who the SK is, but they can guess and attempt at a lynch. If they were thinking that way and YoLF didn't die that day, he would've died the following night.

Lastly, although I don't think it has anything to do with the topic: I'm not assuming that the mafia won't have power roles, even down to being able to scry properly (i.e. for cultists, being able to prove your 'innocence' ext.).

Sorry for the confusion: I blame the fact that I'm a rather typical Aquarius

I appologize in advance if something about this post doesn't make sense, I've been awake a bit longer than I should be...

First off, the SK dieing this early on is acctually a bad thing for the innocents. It means theres one less person out there with a chance of killing the mafia at night, and makes it less likely we'll get them all. It also means theres one less vote that the Mafia don't control.
I don't remember who brought it up, but theres no way Daganev would have seen anything about YoLF at any point in time. He was a vanilla townie type role, they get no night messages at all. (Also, I don't believe a Modkill counts as a lynch, and day should have continued. I might be wrong though)

I'm going to wait untill I have a full nights sleep before voting for anyone, but I'm going to FoS Cwin and Narsrim... Cwin because he is acting very.... Over-logical... Narsrim because he's still completely passed over by all parties involved as possibly suspicious... And as I said before, I don't like it too much... Also, as he was voting for YoLF before pretty much anyone else and stuck to him pretty much the whole way through the day if I remember right, he wasn't voting for a mafia member, which means he could as easily be mafia as innocent.

Give me twelve hours or so, and then I'll see if anything I just said makes sense to me. G'night

Heh, now I know why I read all your posts... I'm typical Aquairus too.

sorry for the disruption.

(p.s. If this does not count as a random allowed post, I'll delete the post, but it looks to me to fall within the rules, P.M me if it doesn't)

It's fine, Daganev.

As my ghostly last post... the members of the mafia are..................