That's the point I scolded him about that long ago, haha.

It's true that people do still perform calculations, but they are mistaken. You can calculate the odds of rolling a pair of twos, but (as Fallen stated), even if you roll a pair of twos three times in a row, your chances of rolling a pair of twos on the next roll are no different than your first roll. It's known as the Gambler's Fallacy.

All of that said, Ixion's math looks abouth right in that, on average, one set out of every 132,955 will be three annihilatingly-critical hits in a row. That statistic isn't all that meaningful, because he could theoretically get 150 of them in a row, then go without for a long time.

/over analysis

He did take into account the previous hits, if the odds were based on 3 annihilating critcals in a row.

And yes, people calculate odds for dice rolls, and they never work. Just like roulette. There are odds of hitting a particular number, but that percentage chance is always the same for every single spin of the wheel. You can say the chances are astronomical to hit 00 ten times in a row in roulette, but the fact is, on every spin, you have a 1 in 37 chance or whatever. Hitting it nine times in a row doesn't reduce that 1 in 37 chance even a little. The same applies to criticals. The chance to score an annihilating critical hit is always roughly 2%. Even if you hit 3 in a row, on the next hit, you have a 2% chance.

So saying that there is only a .0008% chance of landing 3 in a row is sort of misleading, is more the point I was getting at. Because hitting it once doesn't lower the chance of hitting it a second time, or a third time.

Maybe on a computer, in a vacum, but in reality that isn't the case.

The starting position of the ball, the speed at which the ball is released, the starting position of the wheel, and the speed of the wheel, all have an affect on spins.

Same with dice, what the roll is, and how you pick it up, and how you shake them in your hand, all have an affect. (I have a friend who I whenever I play backgammon, I force him to use a cup, because we both know he knows how to roll what he wants 90% of the time)

real life trumps theory.

In theory, all of those things could change the percentages..but in reality, they don't have enough effect to disrupt certain laws of mathematics enough to cancel the laws. Your 'points' about roulette are just as much theory as my point on a law of mathematics. So long as the wheel speed, speed of the ball, air temperature, and everything else are not static, then the odds are going to remain the same over a large span of time. So the point still stands that the chances of getting green after getting it previously is still 1 in 37, even in the real world. Dice are different because you can actively control a majority of the factors, such as what side the dice start on, the angle of the throw, the speed and such. That isn't the case in roulette, nor is it the case when dealing with odds regarding situations with no memory, because you have a memory, and if you are throwing the dice by hand, that definitely causes a conflict.

This is all true, but...it's just not funny!

Back to the funny stuff!

If 00 is facing the point where the ball starts to drop on one roll, but 29 is facing at that point on the next spin, it is going to have a different sort of outcome. And I believe that our pattern recognition abilities are good enough to sense these things, and so people win lots of money by relying on their "Gambler Fallacy"

actually, I can't access the website at all.

Actually, the majority of people lose money, regardless what they rely on. The Gambler's Fallacy doesn't actually work in practice; you'll do just as well to just bet randomly. Sometimes people do win a lot of money by following it; sometimes they lose a lot by following it. It's not inherently any more dangerous than any other strategy, so long as you don't place too much stock in it and bet tons of money.

My numbers are on a three hit series at just under 2%. Each his has almost a 2% chance for an anni crit. My odds are precisely how likely I am to get 3 anni crits in a row, disregarding all else. In any 3 hit series, the chance to have them all annis is as the odds I posted. Period. I'm NOT just as likely to have the next set of 3 be annis actually, because that would be 6 in a row. However, subsequent serieses, sure, can have the same odds.

BACK TO QUOTES!!!!!

>.<

I'd quote something but the website and nexus aint workin. However, I do have these...


An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows.

Dwight D. Eisenhower (1890 - 1969)
When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.

P. J. O'Rourke (1947 - )
How my achievements mock me!

William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616), Troilus and Cressida, Act IV
Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made.

Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), The Soul of Man Under Socialism

I always keep a supply of stimulant handy in case I see a snake--which I also keep handy.

W. C. Fields (1880 - 1946)
Love thy neighbour as yourself, but choose your neighbourhood.

Louise Beal
Sometimes I worry about being a success in a mediocre world.

Lily Tomlin (1939 - )
The only time to buy these is on a day with no 'y' in it.

Warren Buffett (1930 - )

(Bellator Societas): Daevos (from the Prime Material Plane) says, "I r immune."

after almost 2 years with my ex we discussed about the psychological profile of Severus Snape.. and my current girlfriend says "lol", "rofles" and "zohmygod" out loud with me... and she was/is great in manny aspects of normal relationships... they are not that hard to find, really..

and I love to hijack

HORNSTAR = Horn (antlers from Stagform) + Star (Shanth, the STARleaper)! Its not pornstar.

I dont like to be titled antlerstar. It doesn't sound good. Hornstar however....

Well just be content with the fact that everyone who reads it will think pornstar and have a giggle.

OMG.. rofl. Yeah, sorry Gelo, but people -will- find that title funny.. no matter how often you explain it.

I never thought that until I read this thread.

I wonder if that says something about me...

Not really, I don't see it either.

Heck, "Hornstar" is bad enough, horndog.