Anarias2006-11-27 20:53:54
I thought it'd be worth posting what Clementius, the top coder person over in Achaea, said about how the Hammer of Forging works. Here are two quoted posts from the Achaea forums. The original threads can be found here and here.
If you have a forging hammer you could say there's a better chance of hitting the extremes. The number of trials is cut in half.
So let's say you have to forge, oh, 200 times to get a particular item. To get the best possible stats, you'd have to 'roll the lucky number' 200 times. With a forging hammer, you only have to forge 100 times, with each forging being worth twice as much, and so you only have to 'roll the lucky number' 100 times.
Alternate explanation:
flip a coin 200 times. count +1 for heads and -1 for tails. The chance of getting +200 is (1/2)^200. Small!
OR
flip a coin 100 times. count +2 for heads and +2 for tails. The chance of getting a +200 is (1/2)^100. Still small, but a much bigger small!
The spread from top to bottom is the same, meaning you're as likely to get a really good stat item as a really bad one, and that the average of all items still has the same value, with or without forging hammer. But the extremes are a bit easier to reach.
Hope that helps!
and
I've explained it before. I'll try again.
The average of stats for any weapon or armour forged is not modified by having a hammer of forging.
The shape of the curve is changed: it's much flatter, which means that getting a value nearer the extremes happens somewhat more often.
Example comparison:
a ) Roll a six-sided die and double the value you get.
b ) Roll two six-sided dice and add them up.
Where they are the same:
In case a, the minimum value is two and the maximum value is twelve.
In case b, it's the same.
In case a, the average value is 6.
In case b, it's the same.
Where they differ:
In case a, any value is as likely as any other. One sixth of the time you get a twelve, one sixth of a time a ten, and so forth.
In case b, the extremes are much less likely, and the center much more likely. The chance of a twelve is one in thirty-six. The chance of an eleven is one in eighteen. The chance of a ten is one in twelve. The chance of a nine is one in nine. Etc. I believe statisticians call this a normal distribution or a bell curve.
The forging hammer's behaviour is almost exactly analogous to rolling half as many dice and doubling the result.
As for the average being better for one than the other, I strongly doubt that, all claims above notwithstanding. I've seen this code. I've spent a lot of time with it. I have told you the only difference between those with and without hammers (one has twice as many forgings as the other, each forging of which does half as much good).
Excepting for actual skewing of our pseudo-random-number-generator, which I dont' think is at all likely, the only explanation for this happening would be the usual short run effect. Everybody who is at all familiar with probabilities knows that a run of a few hundred or few thousand trials can do anything at all, and that the statistical values are probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes, excepting over the ridiculously long run.
I hope that helps!
QUOTE
If you have a forging hammer you could say there's a better chance of hitting the extremes. The number of trials is cut in half.
So let's say you have to forge, oh, 200 times to get a particular item. To get the best possible stats, you'd have to 'roll the lucky number' 200 times. With a forging hammer, you only have to forge 100 times, with each forging being worth twice as much, and so you only have to 'roll the lucky number' 100 times.
Alternate explanation:
flip a coin 200 times. count +1 for heads and -1 for tails. The chance of getting +200 is (1/2)^200. Small!
OR
flip a coin 100 times. count +2 for heads and +2 for tails. The chance of getting a +200 is (1/2)^100. Still small, but a much bigger small!
The spread from top to bottom is the same, meaning you're as likely to get a really good stat item as a really bad one, and that the average of all items still has the same value, with or without forging hammer. But the extremes are a bit easier to reach.
Hope that helps!
and
QUOTE
I've explained it before. I'll try again.
The average of stats for any weapon or armour forged is not modified by having a hammer of forging.
The shape of the curve is changed: it's much flatter, which means that getting a value nearer the extremes happens somewhat more often.
Example comparison:
a ) Roll a six-sided die and double the value you get.
b ) Roll two six-sided dice and add them up.
Where they are the same:
In case a, the minimum value is two and the maximum value is twelve.
In case b, it's the same.
In case a, the average value is 6.
In case b, it's the same.
Where they differ:
In case a, any value is as likely as any other. One sixth of the time you get a twelve, one sixth of a time a ten, and so forth.
In case b, the extremes are much less likely, and the center much more likely. The chance of a twelve is one in thirty-six. The chance of an eleven is one in eighteen. The chance of a ten is one in twelve. The chance of a nine is one in nine. Etc. I believe statisticians call this a normal distribution or a bell curve.
The forging hammer's behaviour is almost exactly analogous to rolling half as many dice and doubling the result.
As for the average being better for one than the other, I strongly doubt that, all claims above notwithstanding. I've seen this code. I've spent a lot of time with it. I have told you the only difference between those with and without hammers (one has twice as many forgings as the other, each forging of which does half as much good).
Excepting for actual skewing of our pseudo-random-number-generator, which I dont' think is at all likely, the only explanation for this happening would be the usual short run effect. Everybody who is at all familiar with probabilities knows that a run of a few hundred or few thousand trials can do anything at all, and that the statistical values are probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes, excepting over the ridiculously long run.
I hope that helps!
Tervic2006-11-27 21:06:23
QUOTE(Anarias @ Nov 27 2006, 12:53 PM) 357503
I thought it'd be worth posting what Clementius, the top coder person over in Achaea, said about how the Hammer of Forging works. Here are two quoted posts from the Achaea forums. The original threads can be found here and here.
and
and
Really? I thought that the lusternian Hammer just cuts the time to forge in half, therefore you're twice as likely to get the extremes in the same amount of time, unless the higher chance of extremes was a ninja addition that's not in the description.
My understanding is that a normal forging has a chance to add 0-2 to a random stat with each strike, whereas with the artifact Hammer, it's 0-4, but only half the number of strikes.
Although, in backwards looking, that would probably flatten out the curve, especially based on the second post.
What was my point again?
Anarias2006-11-27 21:09:14
Just as a note, the Hammer of Forging in Achaea works exactly the same way the Hammer of Forging works in Lusternia, i.e. cuts forging time in half.
Daganev2006-11-27 21:14:33
And it should get its named changed to Tongs or Billows! darn it!
Anarias2006-11-27 21:18:55
I like it being a hammer 
Daganev2006-11-27 21:22:59
Then you obviously don't forge enough hammers for people or you got lucky with a really high number for your item.
Maybe call it a mallet then.
Just anything other than something that can be forged.
Maybe call it a mallet then.
Just anything other than something that can be forged.
Anarias2006-11-27 21:24:21
Didn't you just say in the other thread that all you'd have to do is target bludgeon instead?
Daganev2006-11-27 21:26:02
QUOTE(Anarias @ Nov 27 2006, 01:24 PM) 357534
Didn't you just say in the other thread that all you'd have to do is target bludgeon instead?
assuming I don't have any other bludgeons on me.
Basically anytime I make a hammer I have to put all my other things away someplace... when I make a flail or a morningstar, or a rapier or a katana or a greataxe, I don't have to do any of that.
Anarias2006-11-27 21:29:01
Oh, I already put away everything I've got before forging. No problems for me! 
Ildaudid2006-11-27 22:07:09
QUOTE(daganev @ Nov 27 2006, 04:22 PM) 357530
Then you obviously don't forge enough hammers for people or you got lucky with a really high number for your item.
Maybe call it a mallet then.
Just anything other than something that can be forged.
I agree I dont forge hammers with it because It screws me up all the time. I wish they called it a mallet or something else too.
Estarra2006-11-27 22:11:51
Lusternia hammers are similar in the way they work as hammers in other IRE realms. I have no problem with changing the hammer into something else. Suggestions? Someone want to start a poll?
Ildaudid2006-11-27 22:14:49
QUOTE(Estarra @ Nov 27 2006, 05:11 PM) 357570
Lusternia hammers are similar in the way they work as hammers in other IRE realms. I have no problem with changing the hammer into something else. Suggestions? Someone want to start a poll?
Oh yes!!! Dag, start a poll with new names for the Hammer.... !!!!! I am a poor poll starter... and I am a poor pole dancer too.
Daganev2006-11-27 22:19:28
QUOTE(Estarra @ Nov 27 2006, 02:11 PM) 357570
Lusternia hammers are similar in the way they work as hammers in other IRE realms. I have no problem with changing the hammer into something else. Suggestions? Someone want to start a poll?
Thank you!
Done.
Ekard2006-11-28 06:52:18
Hmm im wondering. So if you have a bigger chance of getting best weapons, you also have bigger chance of getting very bad weapon. So avarage stats are still same and you cant reach beyound set limit anyway.
So if you want to look at Hammer like that, then yes you have higher chance of getting better weapon, who cares about increasing chances of getting bad weapon.
And i never had problems with forging. Use numbers guys!
So if you want to look at Hammer like that, then yes you have higher chance of getting better weapon, who cares about increasing chances of getting bad weapon.
And i never had problems with forging. Use numbers guys!
Anarias2006-11-28 07:02:14
QUOTE(Ekard @ Nov 27 2006, 11:52 PM) 357827
And i never had problems with forging. Use numbers guys!
Apparently the only people having troubles with it are the ones too lazy to use numbers. Great that they're going to change the cool hammer into something sissy though
Daganev2006-11-28 07:24:08
Nexus can't do the numbers thing so easily
Besides, who wants to have the exact same artifacts as achaea.
Besides, who wants to have the exact same artifacts as achaea.
