Level 3 Kegtap Rune

by Myndaen

Back to Common Grounds.

Myndaen2007-09-07 22:34:52
QUOTE(Estarra @ Sep 7 2007, 05:02 PM) 439575
While interesting, there's a lot of assumptions in the analysis. What if you can buy those herbs in bulk for a larger discount? What if you team up with an herbalist who provides the herbs free of charge for a cut of the profits? What if you drop the price of sips sold by 10%, undercutting the competition and sell out much faster than otherwise?


To test some various scenarios, I changed the analysis, and noted that changing the cost to 0 would still mean 5 months to recoup your investment. I think that 2 days at 200gp to sell 100 refills is actually a very generous assumption, and that it's more likely to sell out slower at 200. I hear that Aesyra's shop in Seren has the cheapest health refills, at roughly 190, and she says that she sells a keg every 2 days. I think it's actually likely to take more than 2 days at the higher price, but I think even if we say 2 days.

QUOTE(Estarra @ Sep 7 2007, 05:02 PM) 439575
However, the biggest assumption is putting a gold cost on credits. This is probably hard to understand but credits are actually worth much differently than what the credit market averages. Why? Because most people who buy credits on the market don't buy in bulk and do so usually (not always) for occasionally lessons, not artifacts. For most people, they analyze whether the time it would take to earn the gold is worth the cost of real money to purchase the credits outright. Let's say you put a cost at 1.5 million gold on the keg rune. Lets say it takes you one hour of straight bashing/influencing/questing to make 20k gold (I don't know if that's true or not but let's assume). Thus, it would take you 75 hours to purchase the keg rune. Is the keg rune really worth about two weeks of full-time work? My guess is most people would say no. Even at $10/hour, that would make the keg rune worth $750 (about 3000 credits!). Let's say you're only willing to spend 10 hours of constant bashing/influencing/questing for a keg rune. Lets say this would net you 200,000 gold. Certainly by your analysis, you would earn this back quite quickly. Lets say you can make 50k gold an hour, this would make the keg rune worth 500,000 gold, still 1/3 of what your analysis demonstrates.

In other words, the credit market is in actuality a poor indicator for such cost analysis, because most people who purchase credits value them differently. Again, I know this is a difficult concept to wrap your head around, but the truth is that the worth of credits is actually much more subjective than what is indicated on the market. Those who purchase credits usually don't put them on the market, partially because they feel their credits are worth much more and partially because they aren't as interested in gold as are in an artifact or lessons. Of course, the views of a business professional and an unemployed student would be radically different.


I understand this analysis, but I'm not quite sure how it can relate to mine. If I own a shop, I'm paid in gold. If I buy a keg rune (or any item, artifact or not, to assist with selling things in the shop), I really want to consider how long it will take me to recover the losses caused by that initial purchase. For example, if I spent 1,500,000 gold on jewelry to stock my shop, then I really wouldn't be making a profit until I made at least 1,500,000 gold. For this matter, I can't really include gold from bashing as profit from my shop. Let me try to lay out exactly what I envision happening as a shop owner. I have 300 credits right now, and I purchase a level 3 keg rune. It doesn't really matter how much it cost me to get those 300 credits, because, in the end, I plan to get them back by buying them on the credit market. Right now, I think that 5000 is a reasonable price to pay per credit. I think that in the future, the price will creep up, so if anything, it's undercutting the credit market, and legitimately could take even longer to recoup my losses, but let's ignore that for now. Assuming that the market stays at 5000 gold per credit, then I will need to make 1,500,000 gold to recover the investment of 300 credits. (Again, it doesn't matter how I came by the 300 credits, because credits are credits, whether I buy them out of game, or buy them in game. It's just like gold is gold whether gotten from bashing, questing or influencing.)
Daganev2007-09-07 23:33:17
Whenever I calculate credit prices, I do 4K or 4.5K because if you are patient you can always get them for that price.
Unknown2007-09-07 23:39:53
QUOTE(Deschain @ Sep 7 2007, 05:29 PM) 439562
Were your harvesting gloves not worth the price?


Those gloves have paid for themselves ten times over already. Every herbalist should have a pair. smile.gif
Roark2007-09-08 22:36:13
Runed kegs have the value of convenience: you never have to buy one again. This was the only reason I ever got the jewel vials when I was a mortal on Achaea. I didn't care if I recouped cost of not. I just liked not having to buy vials again and never having all my elixirs disappear overnight becuse my vials decayed when I didn't expect it. Some people didn't find that convenience worth it and did not buy the vials. Everyone places different value on intangibles. It's totally subjective. If you personally don't think the value in gold saving plus the convenience are worth the cost then don't buy them. The value on that will be different for everyone.
Arel2007-09-08 22:38:19
QUOTE(roark @ Sep 8 2007, 06:36 PM) 439797
Runed kegs have the value of convenience: you never have to buy one again.


The argument is about the worth to shopkeepers. I never had to by unruned kegs as a shopkeeper because they don't decay in the stock room.
Gwylifar2007-09-08 22:58:03
Which points up another factor: even if these runes were of no value to the shopkeeper, so what? Who says they ought to be? They only have to be useful in one situation, not every situation.
Anisu2007-09-08 23:07:38
QUOTE(roark @ Sep 9 2007, 12:36 AM) 439797
Runed kegs have the value of convenience: you never have to buy one again. This was the only reason I ever got the jewel vials when I was a mortal on Achaea. I didn't care if I recouped cost of not. I just liked not having to buy vials again and never having all my elixirs disappear overnight becuse my vials decayed when I didn't expect it. Some people didn't find that convenience worth it and did not buy the vials. Everyone places different value on intangibles. It's totally subjective. If you personally don't think the value in gold saving plus the convenience are worth the cost then don't buy them. The value on that will be different for everyone.

(emphasis mine)

That is why I started buying artifact vials!

QUOTE(Arel @ Sep 9 2007, 12:38 AM) 439799
The argument is about the worth to shopkeepers. I never had to by unruned kegs as a shopkeeper because they don't decay in the stock room.


As a shopkeeper I would say that rune is actually worth the credits, if I compare it to for example the ledger that costs 350 credits, or the tailor shears, then this rune is a lot more profitable.

heck I am even considering trading in my cubix to get a few. (the cubix honoustly has lost most of it's advantages for me because of UV)
Ildaudid2007-09-09 01:43:32
I think the cubix should have an exit into undervault, but still not be able to be used indoors.
Unknown2007-09-09 01:51:48
The cubix has an exit that takes you like three rooms away from UV. kthxbai?

I think the enchantment cube runes seem more worthwhile than the keg runes, though. I'm definitely going to get me one of those.
Anisu2007-09-09 02:01:58
QUOTE(Ildaudid @ Sep 9 2007, 03:43 AM) 439853
I think the cubix should have an exit into undervault, but still not be able to be used indoors.

well it is just useless for me because I do not really hunt astral, if I still did it would be useful, although with the changes where you always cubix to the ground floor and with the constructs providing access for bards and knights to the higher planes I nolonger see it as worth 2000 credits, more a 1200 credits now.

I personally think you should be able to cubix in the UV but with a teleport nexus delay, and exits to some of the undervault hives and to the prison, then I would pay 2000 credits for the artifact again.

but i am also greedy
Ildaudid2007-09-09 02:44:49
QUOTE(Zarquan @ Sep 8 2007, 09:51 PM) 439859
The cubix has an exit that takes you like three rooms away from UV. kthxbai?

I think the enchantment cube runes seem more worthwhile than the keg runes, though. I'm definitely going to get me one of those.


Three exits from the Celestian side entrance, which seems to be infected with lighties when I go that way is not UV. But like Anisu said, I meant actual UV exits, not prime somewhere close to UV. Somewhere close is not what I would pay 2000 credits for.

Go down from Prime and have an exit to the Prison and the 5 Hives, one for the Sea of Kephera, one for the Adorath Sea Area, and somewhere else would give you a n,s,e,w,ne,nw,sw,se exits all right there. It is on prime, and actually if it was down from prime it would give prism owners a little something too.

And yea prolonged teleport time would be nice for one too, damnit Anisu, why are we on this agreement spree!!! tongue.gif

I personally have a pyramid, which makes things easy in UV, I set at least one place in UV and one somewhere on prime. and with my little teleport ring (i think it helps, haven't tested without it) I get around down there quick enough. But as far as a 2000 credit artie goes, I do think it needs some UV exits. As of now, those free amulet/seal things that people won the beginning of the year have more exits than a 2000 credit cubix.
Shamarah2007-09-09 04:17:57
"Celestian side entrance"?
Unknown2007-09-10 09:50:22
QUOTE(Ildaudid @ Sep 9 2007, 04:44 AM) 439881
Three exits from the Celestian side entrance, which seems to be infected with lighties when I go that way is not UV. But like Anisu said, I meant actual UV exits, not prime somewhere close to UV. Somewhere close is not what I would pay 2000 credits for.

Go down from Prime and have an exit to the Prison and the 5 Hives, one for the Sea of Kephera, one for the Adorath Sea Area, and somewhere else would give you a n,s,e,w,ne,nw,sw,se exits all right there. It is on prime, and actually if it was down from prime it would give prism owners a little something too.

And yea prolonged teleport time would be nice for one too, damnit Anisu, why are we on this agreement spree!!! tongue.gif

I personally have a pyramid, which makes things easy in UV, I set at least one place in UV and one somewhere on prime. and with my little teleport ring (i think it helps, haven't tested without it) I get around down there quick enough. But as far as a 2000 credit artie goes, I do think it needs some UV exits. As of now, those free amulet/seal things that people won the beginning of the year have more exits than a 2000 credit cubix.


You're aware that a cubix only works outdoors and all of the UV is indoors? IE even -if- you had exits to all hives + prison, you could only use one then find another way out. Your quick cubix teleporting between places in the UV is not going to happen either way.

EDIT: And don't bring up the seals again. I still find it was a genius idea to make them into cubixe after everyone bitched about -one- perma karma blessing on nine or so people total. Most of those blessings are kinda useless too... amusing really.

/shameless necro + hijack
Verithrax2007-09-15 06:05:09
QUOTE(Myndaen @ Sep 7 2007, 06:54 PM) 439572
EDIT: I miss Verithrax. Now he was a good troll. I really think he should start a troll school so that all of the other little trolls can learn how to properly argue for the sake of arguing. Perhaps there can be advanced lessons on how to do so from a very tall horse.

I'm always open to requests for free advice through the Deathwyrm IRC network. However, by asking me for my ineffable troll wisdom from the heights of my incredibly tall roan mare, you automagically agree to be verbally abused by myself whenever the whim strikes.