Critical Rate Guide

by Unknown

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Unknown2008-01-17 04:52:40
QUOTE(Krellan @ Jan 16 2008, 08:25 PM) 477667
I'm so confused, can you explain what the problem is again? I sort of get it, but not at all.


The problem is that there's no gain in critical hits as you level in the mid-late 90s if you have a crit rune. You hit the critical cap, a cap that doesn't increase till 100. This is seen if you look at levels 96-100, where there's no gain for artifact users.
Krellan2008-01-17 05:39:21
So essentially, I should not buy that crit rune I was thinking about getting?
Unknown2008-01-17 06:24:35
QUOTE(Krellan @ Jan 16 2008, 10:39 PM) 477697
So essentially, I should not buy that crit rune I was thinking about getting?


Wrong. At level 100 there is a bonus. It's just those mid levels that doesn't help!

Crit Runes at 100 give you +2/+4/+6%. Which is pretty good.
Krellan2008-01-17 08:46:01
Oh cool, thanks for verifying then.
Kharvik2008-01-17 16:56:17
I've had the level 3 medal since I was in the 60's, and anytime I took it off I noticed a fair difference. I think you as well as your data are flawed, Visaeris! Flawed!
Unknown2008-01-17 18:14:48
I agree with Kharvik. There are some incorrect assumptions made here. The original report was probably closer to the truth...


Just so I have this right, though, you're saying that at level 86, I have slightly less than a 23% chance to score any sort of critical hit when I hit a mob?
Daganev2008-01-17 18:35:07
FYI, I'm pretty sure that the level of the critical hit is partly dependant on the level of the Mob.

I know I get much more impressive hits on weaker creatures.
Unknown2008-01-17 19:00:25
QUOTE(Zarquan @ Jan 17 2008, 11:14 AM) 477785
I agree with Kharvik. There are some incorrect assumptions made here. The original report was probably closer to the truth...
Just so I have this right, though, you're saying that at level 86, I have slightly less than a 23% chance to score any sort of critical hit when I hit a mob?


If you have a level 2 rune, yes.

What incorrect assumptions are being made here? The original one didn't quite match my data, this new line of reasoning gives me a much closer link between what the table predicts and what I actually see in game.

Edit: Just to add some extra verification to my point, here's a couple of sets:
QUOTE

87
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Crits: 1952
Total Attacks: 6781
Rate per Attack: 28.79%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2X (1436): 73.57%
4X (378): 19.36%
8X (108): 5.53%
16X (19): 0.97%
32X (11): 0.56%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QUOTE

89
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Crits: 3629
Total Attacks: 11581
Rate per Attack: 31.34%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2X (2551): 70.29%
4X (735): 20.25%
8X (226): 6.23%
16X (68): 1.87%
32X (49): 1.35%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------


QUOTE
94
-------------------------
Total Crits: 12608
Total Attacks: 32839
Rate per Attack: 38.39%
-------------------------
2X (7925): 62.86%
4X (3019): 23.95%
8X (1053): 8.35%
16X (404): 3.20%
32X (207): 1.64%
-------------------------
Unknown2008-01-17 21:47:34
QUOTE(Visaeris Maeloch @ Jan 17 2008, 02:00 PM) 477799
If you have a level 2 rune, yes.


CODE
Level 86: 22.6981% (L1: 25.0047) (L2: 27.4625) (L3: 30.0763) Gain: (1.0981)


This is my level. This shows that my rate is just under 23%. A level 2 rune, would make it over 27%. (For the record, I actually have a level 3 rune, though.)

QUOTE(Visaeris Maeloch @ Jan 17 2008, 02:00 PM) 477799
What incorrect assumptions are being made here? The original one didn't quite match my data, this new line of reasoning gives me a much closer link between what the table predicts and what I actually see in game.


The runes do not increase your level. They actually do increase your percentage.

You use "chance" and "rate" interchangeably, though I admit I do the same myself. The chance to get a critical hit is likely to be higher than the actual, observable rate at which you score critical hits. The chance is the same every time you swing at a mob, and it is entirely random. The rate is recorded over a long period of time and consists of your accumulated hits scored based on the individual chances. We'd all like to think that these two things match up, but there is no guarantee that they will.
Xavius2008-01-17 22:03:33
With greater than 1000 samples, the margin of error in a binomial distribution is amazingly small. Granted, he's also nitpicking over hundredths of a percent.

EDIT: Quick way to find out is to give the crit arties to someone below level 10 and see if they crit anything.
Unknown2008-01-17 22:43:03
QUOTE(Xavius @ Jan 17 2008, 05:03 PM) 477870
With greater than 1000 samples, the margin of error in a binomial distribution is amazingly small. Granted, he's also nitpicking over hundredths of a percent.

EDIT: Quick way to find out is to give the crit arties to someone below level 10 and see if they crit anything.


A. We all pull from the same pool of randomly generated numbers, so we're not dealing with any sort of uniform distribution. However, I openly admit that I'm not a statistician and probably know less about all this than most of you. I'm just pointing out possible flaws in the logic, I guess.

B. You don't get critical hits at all below a certain level, regardless of artifacts or abilities.
Roark2008-01-18 00:29:28
You need to compare the change in bashing without the rune vs. with the rune for the same level. It adds 2/4/6 percentage points to your roll. This does impact the quality as well. There is no hard cap. If you were to reach the imaginary level of 126 then you would have 100% critical hits. Some of the numbers in the above table are good, but lots of them are extremely off.
Rika2008-01-18 01:07:30
QUOTE(roark @ Jan 18 2008, 01:29 PM) 477926
You need to compare the change in bashing without the rune vs. with the rune for the same level. It adds 2/4/6 percentage points to your roll. This does impact the quality as well. There is no hard cap. If you were to reach the imaginary level of 126 then you would have 100% critical hits. Some of the numbers in the above table are good, but lots of them are extremely off.


Yes please. dribble.gif
Malarious2008-02-17 09:23:41
QUOTE(roark @ Jan 17 2008, 07:29 PM) 477926
You need to compare the change in bashing without the rune vs. with the rune for the same level. It adds 2/4/6 percentage points to your roll. This does impact the quality as well. There is no hard cap. If you were to reach the imaginary level of 126 then you would have 100% critical hits. Some of the numbers in the above table are good, but lots of them are extremely off.


Feel like giving us the real crit rates? *hope*
Unknown2008-02-17 09:27:55
QUOTE(Malarious @ Feb 17 2008, 02:23 AM) 487410
Feel like giving us the real crit rates? *hope*


Yarite.
Ildaudid2008-02-17 14:41:29
This is a very very VERY inaccurate crit thing for me at level 95. This was also from about 52-55%-60% into level 95:


CODE
Level 95: 34.3000% (L1: 37.3248) (L2: 40.5224) (L3: 42.1875) Gain: (1.4491)



Miss: 241 // Hits: 4806 // Total Crits: 1838 // Crit: 1226 // Crush:412 // Oblit: 132 // Ann: 53 // Wsc: 15 // %Crits 38% // %Misses 5%

Now the thing is when I have my basher off (autobash=0) which I have to do alot when I am hitting a heavy mob (so I can move when my 3rd form completes) It does not count those misses or crits. And It was not tagging some of my misses before (I had the line set to capture too long. example, it wouldn't notice misses on cave-fishers because the name you see attacking was alot longer.) I guess I pretty much had it set up right if I had no wrapwidth, but with wrapwidth 0 it just seems so much laggier to me.

So please don't take this as an actual "proper" numbers. I fought alot of mobs where I had to attack and turn off my bashing as soon as I did. So I could move away when my form ended. Happens all the time when I am sweeping manifestations.

And after the monk bashing nerf. I guess I am doing alot more attacks so I would end up with alot more hits/misses. Since things that would take maybe 1 string form (with 2-3 in the string) now take 2-3 string forms (making it about 4-6 or 6-9 actual 3combo attacks)
Unknown2008-03-12 18:35:37
I've been meaning to update the table, and it's accurate now. The issue was in the way it calculated artis, which has been confirmed by Roark for me. This table is accurate, Ild. There's a thing called variance tongue.gif
Unknown2008-03-15 09:19:03
Looks nice, good to see where everything is playing out.
Janalon2008-10-26 12:59:40
Does anyone have the lines for critical hit-- and in order of damage? For example:

CRITICAL HIT
CRUSHING CRITICAL HIT

etc. Just curious.
Aerotan2008-10-26 13:15:47
CRITICAL HIT
CRUSHING CRITICAL HIT
OVERWHELMING CRITICAL HIT
ANNIHILATING CRITICAL HIT
WORLD SHATTERING CRITICAL HIT
OBLITERATING CRITICAL HIT

Those are most likely out of order, but those are the ones I've seen off the top of my head.