I'll also note that Bhiele, theoretically, was a safe vote that wouldn't really attract attention - or mean anything. Absolutely careful not to offend after overextending herself going after Myrkr. Tricksy.

EDIT: Also thoroughly unhelpful in regards to narrowing down any Carebears or witches. At the very least, considering how many ponies we're down, it's not smart.

What do you think happened?

My guess is that Balizar was a witch, and his "I don't need a doctor" line was a bluff on the carebears. Then he could take out Myrkr possibly without interference from a doctor if the doctor believed him during the day. Meanwhile, either Lorick is a bear, or the doctor blocked a kill...it could be either, but I'm going to go ahead and guess Lorick in the absence of a doctor to say otherwise (they probably shouldn't out themselves at this point, I just hope we'd be making the right decision.)

And I guess either the vig if there is one didn't feel like hitting anyone, or the SK hit the same target as a bear, or...yeah, there should be a reason there's only 1 kill when we've had 3 before. Hrm. I think that detail is beyond our reach atm.

Just for the record, you're not allowed to edit even to add in comments like that. That's why there are typoes and terrible sentences all over the place.
Shamarah might let you go with a warning this time though.

My theory is a bit more simple though I now think you are correct. I was just thinking that Bali would be carebear, had been bluffing, and the witches attempeted the kill in the hope of showing he was a bear. I mean, they also need to find each other.

As for the kills, We have had odd numbers the entire time. Two kills night one, three on night two, and now one on night three.

Eep! My bad, wasn't aware.

Thing is, I'm pretty sure Bali didn't Dream Castle Myrkr, and not all of the people he's done it to have vanished... they've only vanished afterwards. I think he's innocent. But that's a gut feeling more than anything else... I have no evidence to go off of.

Well, the difference between 2 on 1 and 3 on 2 is explainable even considering that my roleblock whiffed (a doctor would have had to get phenomenally lucky.) Sometimes you'll find vigs who don't attack on night 1 but will on night 2 after getting a closer analysis. The difference between 3 and 1 means something out of the ordinary clearly happened though, probably 2 things. So in this case I'm going off the fact I roleblocked Lorick.

Vis. the witches: I don't think they need to find each other or they wouldn't be able to coordinate kills...I guess they could PM the mod and he'd choose at random but that sounds pretty dumb, this game hasn't been that out of the ordinary so far. They probably have 3-4 (guessing two groups of 3 scum but that might be unrealistic) and then Karnagan who they had to find to get his special roleblocking power in addition to the kill.

Actuaaaaallly... Celina is the CREATOR of the Myrkr bandwagon. Worse and worse.

So Bali said that he did dream castle Mykyr.

Balizar -did- put: Dream Castle Myrkr, it's a few pages back. Myrkr and Celina, I think it was. He had it on Xiel and Celina but claims he's allowed to change it as long as there wasn't a consensus yet.

His implication is that those people hadn't died because of him, which I already smelled a rat on because he shouldn't have revealed a role like that since it relies on the scum not guessing, AND he wasn't in any real danger, AND he didn't reveal his IC role which could have led to being discovered if he did it poorly.

I don't think we can afford the risk of believing him and assuming something went wrong. He's far far far more likely to be scum than innocent.

He may have been voting Celina as a way of keeping suspicion off her (given that he was also doing it to the cop) too, but then he did it to me and Visaeris on previous days so I don't hink that's it.
Just to be clear, I don't believe his dream castle thing kills the person or makes them vanish...I think it's complete rubbish and he's actually a witch who's bluffing us.

To be fair, Myrkr was lurking and Celina had no way of knowing she was a policeman at the time, right? I need to go back and find when Myrkr first started hinting.

Crap. But also Celina. So maybe my instincts about Bali are off? Still pretty sure Celina is scum, though.

Feh, I'm not going to be able to get backup for this. Might as well go for the one with more evidence.

Unvote: Celina
Vote: Bali

Ok, actually Sthai was right, Celina started the Myrkr bandwagon after Myrkr hinted at being a policeman. Also consider that she could have been doing it because Myrkr randomly roleclaiming policeman like that was scummy-seeming to her (I thought it was more of a newbie-thing, but you could at least see Celina's reasoning there.)

Anyway, she's a much lower priority than Balizar. Maybe we can consider her over Lorick if there aren't any further informing developments.

And to bed. Plz no lynch. >_>

I think lynching the liar is a pretty good policy. The evidence is pretty damning, too.

Vote: Bali

Oh btw, this confirms Shayle as an innocent almost 100% because Myrkr said so. We can trust any information she happens to have and mustn't lynch her.

Going to Vote: Bali, normally don't like to join bandwagons but he does appear suspicious.

Now I have to go get ready for the day, I'll try and check back later.

Silferras Diamondas Sthai Othero Alianna me makes 6 votes.

With 17 left he should need 9, so add 1-2 more, then I guess let him roleclaim but don't immediately trust him and unvote without properly analysing it like normally happens though.

I just wish Myrkr didn't bring attention to herself so early on.

Hmm.. Going on the assumption that transformations into random witchy animals is a witch kill, means, yeah, the carebear and SK kills were either both blocked by a roleblocker (Shiri?) and a doctor, or that the SK didn't make a move and the roleblocker OR doctor got lucky. The latter is fairly unlikely, since it's to the SK's advantage to off as many as possible as soon as they can.

Hence, if there's only one roleblocker (again, Shiri?) and one doctor, it follows that if Shiri is not lying, Lorick must either be an SK or a carebear.

Those scenarios have too many ifs and assumptions for my liking, though it's something to consider once Bali is lynched. I'm also inclined to treat anyone who hesitates to vote Bali with suspicion, unless they have a very good reason, since last night proved that he was blatantly lying/not being truthful about his supposed 'dream castle' power.

There are always too many ifs, but you seem to concede it as at least a scenario worthy of consideration. Btw, the two kills on night 1 had nothing to do with me, I whiffed and hit Karnagan (who had no kill and died in any case.)