I don't believe the day ends until we solve both the challenge and decide the lynch, so doing the lynch in order to get information probably won't work.

I don't believe the day ends until we solve both the challenge and decide the lynch, so doing the lynch in order to get information probably won't work.

Placeholder post. I'm typing with a Wiimote so it'll take a while but I will post around 3-4 my time. I have a test in 2 hours to study for and I'll post from campus.

Also, don't lynch Sylvanus until I post

Thats 4-5 hours from now

I think we get info after a kill, rather than at day's end. That's how it usually works.

Ah, ok. Wiimote, for shame!

Unvote: Requiem

With regards to whether roles are only revealed when the day ends, or when the lynch majority is reached.. Some clarification from Bali would be nice. If the former, then whether we lynch or leaderify someone first doesn't matter. If the latter.. well, lynching first, then analyzing the evidence later sounds like a good plan.

Oh wait, it says "Roles will be revealed at the end of a lynch and night." Lynching first gets the green light in my view.

Yep. In the meantime we can go with the latter, since it's how it normally works. Shouldn't matter for a while though, a few people are abandoning Silvanus and we don't have any other obvious targets right now unless people are going to restart bandwagoning Daganev (or start on Thul or something.)

Anyway, going to bad so if you didn't understand any of my explanations, Daganev, it'll have to wait till tomorrow.

Yep. In the meantime we can go with the latter, since it's how it normally works. Shouldn't matter for a while though, a few people are abandoning Silvanus and we don't have any other obvious targets right now unless people are going to restart bandwagoning Daganev (or start on Thul or something.)

Anyway, going to bad so if you didn't understand any of my explanations, Daganev, it'll have to wait till tomorrow.

Damn double post.

Let me just clarify that me agree with lynching first den voting on leader. Me was just finding d'idea of -discussing- leader only after a lynch suspicious logic. Ye can discuss witout voting!

I'll be back a little later guys.

I'm afraid I have nothing concrete to offer in terms of proving myself a Water Mage at present (no Bag of Tricks or anything.) I would like to note that I gave a highly detailed claim on myself fairly early on... nobody has yet jumped on me for any glaring inconsistencies in the claim itself. I would suggest that everyone double check that and ask if something's standing out as odd.

It's occurred to me, though, that we can go around roleclaiming all day long, and still get nothing done. I'm hypothesizing that the scum have full and detailed roles atop their warlock/psycho/whatever affiliations. For example, my thought when Visaeris roleclaimed was that he was a dragonslayer and a psychopath.

This opens up the possibility, of course, that I could be a Water Mage and a warlock, which would vaguely make sense from a thematic standpont. I can't really offer any solid defense at this point, seeing as how we don't really have a lot of solid information to play with. But then nobody else has the means to conclusively prove themselves innocent either.

At this point, the only way to conclusively prove yourself innocent is to get yourself lynched and role-revealed, but I don't think that's an option for anyone (sane). The thing is, the leader challenge forces us to have a certain level of trust in others' roleclaims, but at the same time have a modicum of suspicion for every claim made, because like it or not, the leader mechanic would benefit the warlocks and psychopaths more.

I actually have no problem with your claim. It's possible you're a warlock, or a psychopath (insofar as it's possible for any of us) but I haven't noticed anything especially off-putting about you or the role you've cited.

Spectator: 19 pages in less than 24 hours.

I think Silvanus is very probably town. What mostly makes me think this is not his actual defense (though I do find it satisfactory) but the speed at which the bandwagon upon him grew. In my experience day 1 bandwagons are conspicuously slow to grow on scum whereas they are conspicuously fast to grow on townies. Think back to Kickapoo, for those of you who were involved in it - on day 1, the main bandwagon was on Shaddus, who came up townie and the bandwagon turned out to have almost the entire mafia on it. That bandwagon grew from nothing sickeningly fast whereas the other bandwagon that I was leading on Othero, who turned out to be scum, was noticeably sluggish in its growth. Natually, this alone doesn't necessarily mean that the target is scum or town, but it's a very useful day 1 indication. Silvanus, in this case, ended up with an enormous bandwagon on his head rather quickly (was at lynch-2 for a long time). However, I don't think that means we can directly infer that any of the other bandwagons are necessarily on scum.

I think Shiri is acting the most suspicious and lynch-worthy of anyone in the game at the moment. He was pushing very hard for Silvanus's lynch, and all of a sudden decided to change his mind. Admittedly, Visaeris did the same thing too, but I found Visaeris's change of heart a bit more believeable, given that he was actively arguing with Silvanus whereas Shiri's just seemed to come out of the blue. This post in particular stuck out at me:



Shiri knows what he's doing, and I know he knows when to abandon a lost cause. Personally, I'm doubtful that Silvanus will be lynched today, and I think it was fairly apparent that he wouldn't be once everyone started accepting his roleclaim (which I think seems fairly valid, really). The above post looks to me like Shiri realizing that people were starting to think Silvanus was innocent and it was time for him to back off and look for a new target in order to avoid looking too scummy.

This is admittedly mostly intuition and just my scumdar pinging, but it's really all I have to go on at the moment. Also, this particular exchange of posts interested me:













This really sounds to me like a scum trying to warn another scum to back off, since they probably aren't allowed to talk during the night. If one of those two comes up scum at any point, I've got my eye on the other.

For now, I'm going to Vote: Shiri.

As for leader, I still think Visaeris is the best choice:

• If he's town, great! We now have an unlynchable and difficult-to-nightkill townie with whatever benefits the leader role provides.
• If we decide he's scum, he is almost certainly lying about the NK resistance (as scum with that kind of resistance would be hideously broken in a game with this elected leader role) and we have a vig kill him.

However, it still may be a good idea to wait until after a lynch.

I'll unvote: Silvanus for the moment. At least it'll give us a bit more time to discuss where we want to go from here, I guess.

Here is a list of people I think are not being helpful (aka people worth pressuring):

Rika has been active in the thread and made several posts so far, but absolutely none with anything of substance beyond vaguely echoing the opinions of others. She's just been following the bandwagon on Silvanus:



None of this expressed anything new and she didn't even say WHY she was voting for him, though it can be implied that she doesn't believe his roleclaim. What really gets my goat is that apparently she wants to lynch Silvanus... but she doesn't want to do so enough to put him at lynch-1, oh no! And then once the number of votes went down, she went ahead and recasted her vote with no explanation except:



Yeah. Progress.

Silferras has been consistently wishy-washy and scummy. Here we have a textbook example of the omnipresent "oh, well I don't REALLY think he's THAT scummy so don't blame me if he comes up town... but I'm going to vote anyway":



The rest of her posts have been vague and largely off-topic (just idle discussions of the leader mechanic and roleclaims in general, nothing specific and relevant to the actual discussion).

Lowe (Archer2) has been similarly vague and wishy-washy, engaging in bandwagoning with no real explanations. Here we have a post of him jumping on the Daganev bandwagon without explaining why (he says he thinks both Visaeris and Daganev are shifty for wanting the leader position, but gives no explanation to why he picks Daganev over Visaeris):



And then, in the very next post, he suddenly changes his mind with (surprise!) no explanation:



After that, Shiri responds again asking him to talk about why - but Shiri's post doesn't really feel like a request for information, it feels almost like he's trying to lead Lowe by the nose (ie. scum helping out an inexperienced scumbuddy), especially considering Shiri's usually a lot more aggressive than this:



Another point towards the Lowe-Shiri connection I mentioned in my previous post. (And, of course, the fact that he again follows Shiri towards voting for Requiem.)

Finally, like Silferras's post before, here is another example of that "oh I don't think he's scum but I'm voting anyway" post (resizing mine):



Ugh, now after writing this I'm even more convinced of the scumminess of these people and I almost want to switch my vote from Shiri to one of these clowns. I need to think about this a bit.