I'm just going to throw this idea out there...

Arix is mafia, and investigated Shiri to see who shiri thought might be scum.

He voted for celina because he was just looking for any sign for a reason to lynch someone. (and wasn't thinking that celina was vouched for by his own investigation)

I investigated Shiri because he was as good a person as any to investigate on night 1, and I was curious to see who he'd block.

Quite a few new posts.

Even after nearly 50 games of mafia I am bad at figuring out a 'plan' to catch scumbags based on game mechanics. Or even knowing when a plan is a good one. Especially on day 1. There's a lot of talk of such things going on, but they're kind of useless to me.

So!

Celina is confused. Understandable to a point. My vote for Celina was primarily a placeholder vote for something fairly minimal, since there was little else to go off of. As for Celina's confusion, this could be genuine, but it's also noted. Confusion is an easy excuse for scum to use so they don't have to offer anything of substance to the discussion.

At any rate, the bandwagon on Daganev is interesting. I understand a quick lurker wagon, but what I don't understand is why that wagon persists even after Daganev started posting and is obviously contributing to the game. For those still voting Daganev, is there more to your vote than the initial non-posting? If so, please feel free to share with the rest of us.

Generally, a quick bandwagon is interesting to look at because of the theory that scum like to jump on a fast-moving wagon to see if they can get a lynch off. The problem being, if the wagon is on scum, that is likely not the case. At any rate, either way, I could expect there to be maybe one scumbag on the wagon, and the others voting elsewhere or not at all. I've found more often than not, even if the person being wagonned is town, scum like to sit back and watch the town lynch themselves.

Therefore, we have:



and




With Simon unvoting after the votecount.

So Silvanus, Silferras, Simon, and Daganev are not voting.

Interesting to note, Silferras and Silvanus do not show up on the vote count at all and only have two posts each. Good way to to float under the radar. If we're going to look for lurkerscum, this is a good place. Let's see what those two have had to say in their two posts each.



Theorizing on how the nightkill was accomplished. Eh, plenty of people did that. Not such a big deal.
Not wanting to commit to a vote with the excuse that scum is random. Umm, yeah... it's mafia. This was still fairly early on though so not too much of an indicator. However, he still hasn't voted yet, or said much and there's been plenty of discussion.

The only other thing he's said:



Doesn't buy that Casilu is the terrorist? I think that's what this said. But accepts it anyways because no one else claimed. Wishy-washy. Manages to not vote, therefore keeping his name off of the vote count. (flying under the radar) And hasn't said a word since.

On to Silferras



Also discusses the terrorist role, essentially correcting Silvanus assumption that Casilu had any kind of immunity if he was the terrorist. I find it interesting that Silferras targetted the other person I'm looking at here. And I'm sure there's all kinds of WIFOM we could get into about that if we wanted to.

Just because of this statement, I have to rethink whether I will just out with my results first thing. Anyone can say they targetted whoever they wanted if I've already given my results.

The only other think he has said:



Way to contribute. I know I'm waiting for some content from you.

So I see a possible connection between these two. They both have the same lack of posts and have addressed pretty much the same topic without expanding anywhere else. They also both appear to be easily floating under the radar without notice.

Ohhh, I'm not done yet.

I'm not going to search for all of Furien's posts, but let it be noted, he's not contributing much either, and jumped on Daganev's wagon rather nonchalantly. If there's scum on that wagon, my bet right now would be Furien.

That said, who shall I vote for?

unvote: Celina
vote: Silvanus
FoS: Silferras
FoS: Furien

Well, Silvanus is reading right now, so let's give him a prod, hmm?

UNVOTE
VOTE SILVANUS

And Rhayni, did you ever say who you targetted?

Yes, it was Rika. Who was not targetted barring any switching Shaddus may have done to me.

I did ask Silvanus to post earlier, somewhat subtly. Unvote. Vote: Silvanus <-- mind the double.

To go from "not having a plan" and not knowing where to start on day one, you pull a lot of conclusions and guesses out of nowhere.

Besides, have you ever really played a mafia game on these forums before? Most of the time it's Daganev-Shiri argue-fest with everybody else throwing in a post every ten posts or so.

I think you are better off looking for lurkerscum when there's actually information to be had, and avoid making statements.

I've played some on these forums. I modded about 5 games here in fact.

But you're right to conclude that I've played elsewhere. The majority of my games are on mafiascum.

And I said I didn't have a plan to catch scum based on game mechanics on day 1. Catching scum through thread behavior is an entirely different thing.

I'm not pulling conclusions and guesses out of nowhere at all. I flatly posted what you've said and given my thoughts on it. People are more than welcome to draw their own conclusions from it. And nice way to try to shut me down and get me to stop talking. Good luck with that, because it's not going to happen.

I don't understand what WIFOM you're talking about. Why is Silferras targetting Silvanus surprising? She's also quite right that Casilu wouldn't have immunity - it's in the rules.

(Also Silferras is a she, heh)

As for why I'm still voting Daganev: no particular reason, I just hadn't gotten around to unvoting him yet. Unvote: Daganev, Vote Furien because need moar posts (although she just went to sleep.)

And yes, I don't like that "you are better off ... avoid making statements" line either, even if I assume Silvanus legitimately didn't know Rhayni had played here before.

Shiri, the WIFOM starts with this question:

Why would Silferras target Silvanus if they were scum together?

And the whole 'avoid making statements' thing is a bad thing for anyone town to say regardless of who it is directed at. Not wanting inexperienced players to talk is silly. The more people talk, the more we can learn about them. Only scum should want to stifle discussion. I'll take into consideration that there's probably a bit of OMGUS to his sentiment, which could be either nervous scum or frustrated town. But my vote isn't moving at this point.

You have been rather quiet, Silvanus. Most of us have managed to put in two cents or a vote somewhere, I think... I don't really see the forum mafia games as a "Daganev-Shiri argue-fest", and even if they are, that's a poor excuse for not commenting much even when someone gives you the kind of prodding Rhayni just did. With that in mind, I'm going to go ahead and...

Vote: Silvanus

Give us some decent input! None of us have a lot of information yet, and you seem to be avidly avoiding any sort of real comment about what we do have.

I was going to move my vote since Silvanus is now speaking, but after that comment about avoiding statements, I think I'll keep my vote as is

That's what I was saying, yes.

In fact, Unvote: Furien, Vote: Silvanus.

I don't have much of an opinion on Silferras yet, but I think it's worth pointing out that just because Silferras said she targeted Silvanus doesn't mean she actually did... I'm feeling pretty cynical about what information we can trust.

The whole avoid making statements was reference to Rhanyi's statements about me. Assuming I lurk because one, I'm not saying anything, and two, I'm not voting.

One: I am almost always quiet and lurking in mafia games, regardless of the role I am.

Two: When do I ever vote on day one? When I do vote, it's for no lynch, you can look up just about any mafia game I've played in. I don't put in my vote unless I have confidence in that vote.

This was in general reference that I have never played a game with Rhanyi and just assumed many different things about Silferras and I, that were just wrong on my end.

Silvanus is on 7 votes.

Once again, statements like these from somebody who's an experienced mafia player playing with some very inexpereienced mafia players. There's a reason Balizar avoids Lusternia mafia games.

Well, we know at least that Silvanus is not the Canadian terrorist.