Shiri2008-10-03 05:05:18
QUOTE(Arix @ Oct 3 2008, 06:04 AM) 566038
Pffft, fine. I targetted someone who the role page said did not have a night action, to see if they somehow targetted someone anyway (IE a mafia). They did not, so I don't know if it's because they could not or did not go after anyone
Ok...and who was that?
Arix2008-10-03 05:08:00
Not sure I want to say. But it was one of the three people that are not listed as having night actions
Shiri2008-10-03 05:08:55
WHY do you not want to say?
Arix2008-10-03 05:09:40
Because tonight I'm going to try it on one of the others, and I'd rather keep them guessing incase one of them IS mafia
Daganev2008-10-03 05:10:34
I sort of skimmed so, sorry if this is the wrong topic currently.
I investigated Silfferas last night, and came up with a strong suspicion that she is scum.
Now its possible that rika was roleblocked and is scum and that is why there was no kill. It is also possible that Silfferas was scum, and killed Casilu, and that is why there was no kill. (i.e., the mafia kill was used against Casilu)
Even though there is a %25 chance that I am wrong, based on Rhanyi success yesterday, I'm going to go and vote Silfferas
Now I'm going to go back and read the other posts.
I investigated Silfferas last night, and came up with a strong suspicion that she is scum.
Now its possible that rika was roleblocked and is scum and that is why there was no kill. It is also possible that Silfferas was scum, and killed Casilu, and that is why there was no kill. (i.e., the mafia kill was used against Casilu)
Even though there is a %25 chance that I am wrong, based on Rhanyi success yesterday, I'm going to go and vote Silfferas
Now I'm going to go back and read the other posts.
Shiri2008-10-03 05:14:46
QUOTE(daganev @ Oct 3 2008, 06:10 AM) 566045
I sort of skimmed so, sorry if this is the wrong topic currently.
I investigated Silfferas last night, and came up with a strong suspicion that she is scum.
Now its possible that rika was roleblocked and is scum and that is why there was no kill. It is also possible that Silfferas was scum, and killed Casilu, and that is why there was no kill. (i.e., the mafia kill was used against Casilu)
Even though there is a %25 chance that I am wrong, based on Rhanyi success yesterday, I'm going to go and vote Silfferas
Now I'm going to go back and read the other posts.
I investigated Silfferas last night, and came up with a strong suspicion that she is scum.
Now its possible that rika was roleblocked and is scum and that is why there was no kill. It is also possible that Silfferas was scum, and killed Casilu, and that is why there was no kill. (i.e., the mafia kill was used against Casilu)
Even though there is a %25 chance that I am wrong, based on Rhanyi success yesterday, I'm going to go and vote Silfferas
Now I'm going to go back and read the other posts.
Don't think that's how it works. If Silferras mafia-killed Casilu, she'd have died as well. Instead she used her Nathan powers. Now she could STILL be scum, but I'd much rather go for Rika first. You can doublecheck Silferras with another assessment tonight, there should only be another 25% of false negative.
Shiri2008-10-03 05:16:02
Although your results are a bitch to trust anyway, since even if it comes up innocent there's a 33% chance it was a false positive.
Daganev2008-10-03 05:18:38
QUOTE(Shiri @ Oct 2 2008, 10:14 PM) 566046
Don't think that's how it works. If Silferras mafia-killed Casilu, she'd have died as well. Instead she used her Nathan powers. Now she could STILL be scum, but I'd much rather go for Rika first. You can doublecheck Silferras with another assessment tonight, there should only be another 25% of false negative.
I doubt that they can mafia kill AND use the powers at the same time for a double kill.
If I investigate silferras tonight again, with that logic, I would have to investigate her 4 times, and hope that my luck is good.
I'll wait for more information from Rhyani first. But it seems really silly to investigate someone multiple times if it fits all the evidence we have. Also, you said yourself that it was in the mafia's best intrest for Casilu to be targeted, so the fact that casilu died, does not mean that she was not killed by the mafia.
(i.e, we would expect only one person to die if the mafia decided to kill of Casilu)
Noola2008-10-03 05:20:30
QUOTE(daganev @ Oct 3 2008, 12:10 AM) 566045
Now its possible that rika was roleblocked and is scum and that is why there was no kill. It is also possible that Silfferas was scum, and killed Casilu, and that is why there was no kill. (i.e., the mafia kill was used against Casilu)
I admit I'm not sure how it works, but if there are multiple scum, why wouldn't another scum person do the mafia kill while Silfferas as taking care of Casilu? Probably a Noob type question, but still. Also, your role says, "You will be right 50% of the time" so that must mean you'd guess wrong 50% of the time, right? (remember I'm horrible at math so I will not be shocked if I'm wrong!
)I think it's more likely that Rika was roleblocked, unless it's just that I'm completely misunderstanding how the whole scum kill thing works.
Of course, Arix is acting kinda weird too.
Shiri2008-10-03 05:22:33
QUOTE(daganev @ Oct 3 2008, 06:18 AM) 566049
I doubt that they can mafia kill AND use the powers at the same time for a double kill.
If I investigate silferras tonight again, with that logic, I would have to investigate her 4 times, and hope that my luck is good.
I'll wait for more information from Rhyani first. But it seems really silly to investigate someone multiple times if it fits all the evidence we have. Also, you said yourself that it was in the mafia's best intrest for Casilu to be targeted, so the fact that casilu died, does not mean that she was not killed by the mafia.
(i.e, we would expect only one person to die if the mafia decided to kill of Casilu)
If I investigate silferras tonight again, with that logic, I would have to investigate her 4 times, and hope that my luck is good.
I'll wait for more information from Rhyani first. But it seems really silly to investigate someone multiple times if it fits all the evidence we have. Also, you said yourself that it was in the mafia's best intrest for Casilu to be targeted, so the fact that casilu died, does not mean that she was not killed by the mafia.
(i.e, we would expect only one person to die if the mafia decided to kill of Casilu)
I don't understand your post.
With your assumption that they can't do mafia kill AND use their role-powers:
Scenario 1: Silferras kills Casilu with mafia powers, because she's guilty. Casilu and Silferras both die.
Scenario 2: Silferras is innocent, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 3: Silferras is guilty, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers instead of using her mafia powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 1 is ruled out because...Silferras didn't die. Scenario 3 is unlikely because why would they not just use the 2nd scum member to kill? Scenario 2 is most likely. She COULD still be guilty, but Rika is more likely to be - they could still both be, but Rika is a safer bet.
Daganev2008-10-03 05:22:46
ok, I looked over the roles again, Silfferas is actually a safer sacrifice for us than Rika is, I think, since Silfferas has used up her powers she is just a vanilla townie now.
Unknown2008-10-03 05:23:40
Mafia uses guns, pretty sure that was confirmed by the mod. Casilu was blown up as per Silferras' ability, regardless of if she's mafia or not. Therefore, if Silferras is mafia, she was not the person who attempted the mafia's nightkill.
And I'll now confirm since I believe all parties who could target someone have spoken. I agree with Arix's plan to keep his target to himself. I targetted Casilu to ensure/confirm that Silferras did what she was supposed to do.
And I'll now confirm since I believe all parties who could target someone have spoken. I agree with Arix's plan to keep his target to himself. I targetted Casilu to ensure/confirm that Silferras did what she was supposed to do.
Doman2008-10-03 05:27:34
Okay, that right there is suspicious. You would rather do a very flimsy sacrifice instead of voting against someone who has some very suspicious behavior AND A roleblock against her?
Daganev2008-10-03 05:27:34
QUOTE(Shiri @ Oct 2 2008, 10:22 PM) 566052
I don't understand your post.
With your assumption that they can't do mafia kill AND use their role-powers:
Scenario 1: Silferras kills Casilu with mafia powers, because she's guilty. Casilu and Silferras both die.
Scenario 2: Silferras is innocent, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 3: Silferras is guilty, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers instead of using her mafia powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 1 is ruled out because...Silferras didn't die. Scenario 3 is unlikely because why would they not just use the 2nd scum member to kill? Scenario 2 is most likely. She COULD still be guilty, but Rika is more likely to be - they could still both be, but Rika is a safer bet.
With your assumption that they can't do mafia kill AND use their role-powers:
Scenario 1: Silferras kills Casilu with mafia powers, because she's guilty. Casilu and Silferras both die.
Scenario 2: Silferras is innocent, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 3: Silferras is guilty, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers instead of using her mafia powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 1 is ruled out because...Silferras didn't die. Scenario 3 is unlikely because why would they not just use the 2nd scum member to kill? Scenario 2 is most likely. She COULD still be guilty, but Rika is more likely to be - they could still both be, but Rika is a safer bet.
90% of mafia games, the Head mafia person has to be the person to kill, and if they die, then the next person takes over and gets the kill ability. Since in this game, its not possible for the mafia to talk to eachother, I'm guessing that is the case here. (otherwise the mafia would have to talk to eachother to decide who gets to do the killing, but since the rules say that NOBODY can talk to eachother, that means they can't do that)
Doman2008-10-03 05:27:34
Just getting rid of a double post
Daganev2008-10-03 05:27:34
QUOTE(Shiri @ Oct 2 2008, 10:22 PM) 566052
I don't understand your post.
With your assumption that they can't do mafia kill AND use their role-powers:
Scenario 1: Silferras kills Casilu with mafia powers, because she's guilty. Casilu and Silferras both die.
Scenario 2: Silferras is innocent, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 3: Silferras is guilty, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers instead of using her mafia powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 1 is ruled out because...Silferras didn't die. Scenario 3 is unlikely because why would they not just use the 2nd scum member to kill? Scenario 2 is most likely. She COULD still be guilty, but Rika is more likely to be - they could still both be, but Rika is a safer bet.
With your assumption that they can't do mafia kill AND use their role-powers:
Scenario 1: Silferras kills Casilu with mafia powers, because she's guilty. Casilu and Silferras both die.
Scenario 2: Silferras is innocent, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 3: Silferras is guilty, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers instead of using her mafia powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 1 is ruled out because...Silferras didn't die. Scenario 3 is unlikely because why would they not just use the 2nd scum member to kill? Scenario 2 is most likely. She COULD still be guilty, but Rika is more likely to be - they could still both be, but Rika is a safer bet.
90% of mafia games, the Head mafia person has to be the person to kill, and if they die, then the next person takes over and gets the kill ability. Since in this game, its not possible for the mafia to talk to eachother, I'm guessing that is the case here. (otherwise the mafia would have to talk to eachother to decide who gets to do the killing, but since the rules say that NOBODY can talk to eachother, that means they can't do that)
Shiri2008-10-03 05:27:34
@Daganev: disagree. Rika and Silferras are both not particularly useful - Rika could be detrimental due to her misguided doublevote even if she isn't scum. And if she IS scum, she's more of a threat than Silferras (again, because of her doublevote.)
Daganev2008-10-03 05:27:34
QUOTE(Shiri @ Oct 2 2008, 10:22 PM) 566052
I don't understand your post.
With your assumption that they can't do mafia kill AND use their role-powers:
Scenario 1: Silferras kills Casilu with mafia powers, because she's guilty. Casilu and Silferras both die.
Scenario 2: Silferras is innocent, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 3: Silferras is guilty, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers instead of using her mafia powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 1 is ruled out because...Silferras didn't die. Scenario 3 is unlikely because why would they not just use the 2nd scum member to kill? Scenario 2 is most likely. She COULD still be guilty, but Rika is more likely to be - they could still both be, but Rika is a safer bet.
With your assumption that they can't do mafia kill AND use their role-powers:
Scenario 1: Silferras kills Casilu with mafia powers, because she's guilty. Casilu and Silferras both die.
Scenario 2: Silferras is innocent, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 3: Silferras is guilty, and kills Casilu with Nathan powers instead of using her mafia powers. Casilu dies, Silferras doesn't.
Scenario 1 is ruled out because...Silferras didn't die. Scenario 3 is unlikely because why would they not just use the 2nd scum member to kill? Scenario 2 is most likely. She COULD still be guilty, but Rika is more likely to be - they could still both be, but Rika is a safer bet.
90% of mafia games, the Head mafia person has to be the person to kill, and if they die, then the next person takes over and gets the kill ability. Since in this game, its not possible for the mafia to talk to eachother, I'm guessing that is the case here. (otherwise the mafia would have to talk to eachother to decide who gets to do the killing, but since the rules say that NOBODY can talk to eachother, that means they can't do that)
Shiri2008-10-03 05:27:42
@Daganev: disagree. Rika and Silferras are both not particularly useful - Rika could be detrimental due to her misguided doublevote even if she isn't scum. And if she IS scum, she's more of a threat than Silferras (again, because of her doublevote.)
Wtf, is this forum lagged to crap for anyone else? I know it's not my internet.
Wtf, is this forum lagged to crap for anyone else? I know it's not my internet.
Shiri2008-10-03 05:29:15
QUOTE(daganev @ Oct 3 2008, 06:27 AM) 566061
90% of mafia games, the Head mafia person has to be the person to kill, and if they die, then the next person takes over and gets the kill ability. Since in this game, its not possible for the mafia to talk to eachother, I'm guessing that is the case here. (otherwise the mafia would have to talk to eachother to decide who gets to do the killing, but since the rules say that NOBODY can talk to eachother, that means they can't do that)
Hm. Ok, maybe you're right, since scum can't talk. I hadn't considered that dimension, I figured it would be the usual setup where the scum gets to choose.
I still don't think that makes a strong case in either direction though. Hm. Maybe we should just one and have Celina kill the other.
