Daganev2009-03-25 19:07:21
Also, the problem with going after lurkers in this game, is that there is only 1 person who would actively lurk (the joker)... but then again, the Joker might have tried to convert a lurker... maybe it is a good idea to go after them. But I say we get rid of Shiri first since I think he is the head honcho.
Doman2009-03-25 19:52:54
Sorry I haven't posted much recently, I've been really busy, but I've been keeping up, and Shiri still rubs me the wrong way. The logic he had for the first lynch wasn't "Shiri-like" at all, the deductions were just too far off
Zynna2009-03-25 20:19:31
My goal was to go back and read over all the posts to see if I could catch any flaws in people's arguments. But I didn't sleep well last night and concentration is not my strong suit at the moment! So I just gave it a cursory look.
The only thing odd I remember about Shiri was Shiri thinking we could lynch someone by forcing them to vote for Jack. Of course, that's essentially what ended up happening. I've never played with Shiri before, so I don't have prior games to compare to.
I thought the reasoning for voting for Jack was good (after all, I voted for him too) because I found it suspicious Jack would claim right off the bat to essentially be an untouchable target. But, it was proven he told the truth...so my sensors are a little off.
I guess this is all to say I don't have anyone that I strongly suspect at the moment.
The only thing odd I remember about Shiri was Shiri thinking we could lynch someone by forcing them to vote for Jack. Of course, that's essentially what ended up happening. I've never played with Shiri before, so I don't have prior games to compare to.
I thought the reasoning for voting for Jack was good (after all, I voted for him too) because I found it suspicious Jack would claim right off the bat to essentially be an untouchable target. But, it was proven he told the truth...so my sensors are a little off.
I guess this is all to say I don't have anyone that I strongly suspect at the moment.
Daganev2009-03-25 20:42:25
Doman, shiri rubs you the wrong way, but not enough to vote for him? What do you suggest instead?
Daganev2009-03-25 20:43:17
QUOTE (Zynna @ Mar 25 2009, 01:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I thought the reasoning for voting for Jack was good (after all, I voted for him too) because I found it suspicious Jack would claim right off the bat to essentially be an untouchable target. But, it was proven he told the truth...so my sensors are a little off.
I thought it was clear that he was either the Jester or telling the truth. Oh well.
Diamondais2009-03-25 20:59:22
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 25 2009, 02:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
To be honest, I don't quite remember. I just remember Shiri being my suspect if I was wrong about Silfferas being scum.
I believe there were a few things he was saying that I didn't like.
1. He wanted to lynch jack, which I thought was just a stupid idea. I only went along with it because it would result in Silfferas dieing who I thought was scum.
2. In his first post, he tried to warn people not to vote 3rd by bringing it up right away.
3. He was trying to argue that the Joker would try to defend people who were converted, when really the Joker shouldn't care.
4. He was trying to suggest that a no lynch in this game would be a bad idea, just like it is in other games, even though the rules and odds are completely different.
5. He was saying something stupid, which I can't quite remember about how we lose 2 people every night, because 1 is the townie not being vanilla, and 2 is the new townie now being against the town. Which isn't true. (though ironically, or not so ironically, we do lose 2 people every night as it seems the Joker can turn multiple people. Probabbly because there are so many of us, but hopefully that was a 1 shot deal. I don't think it's possible for the Joker to lose if he can convert 2 people every night. )
I believe there were a few things he was saying that I didn't like.
1. He wanted to lynch jack, which I thought was just a stupid idea. I only went along with it because it would result in Silfferas dieing who I thought was scum.
2. In his first post, he tried to warn people not to vote 3rd by bringing it up right away.
3. He was trying to argue that the Joker would try to defend people who were converted, when really the Joker shouldn't care.
4. He was trying to suggest that a no lynch in this game would be a bad idea, just like it is in other games, even though the rules and odds are completely different.
5. He was saying something stupid, which I can't quite remember about how we lose 2 people every night, because 1 is the townie not being vanilla, and 2 is the new townie now being against the town. Which isn't true. (though ironically, or not so ironically, we do lose 2 people every night as it seems the Joker can turn multiple people. Probabbly because there are so many of us, but hopefully that was a 1 shot deal. I don't think it's possible for the Joker to lose if he can convert 2 people every night. )
(Okay, now that I have a minute to reply)
That seems a fair analysis. I've lost track of what I wanted to say though so give me a few to remember what else I had in mind.
Daganev2009-03-25 21:27:01
have you completely forgotten what you wanted to say?
kiriwe2009-03-25 21:34:32
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 25 2009, 02:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
To be honest, I don't quite remember. I just remember Shiri being my suspect if I was wrong about Silfferas being scum.
I believe there were a few things he was saying that I didn't like.
1. He wanted to lynch jack, which I thought was just a stupid idea. I only went along with it because it would result in Silfferas dieing who I thought was scum.
2. In his first post, he tried to warn people not to vote 3rd by bringing it up right away.
3. He was trying to argue that the Joker would try to defend people who were converted, when really the Joker shouldn't care.
I believe there were a few things he was saying that I didn't like.
1. He wanted to lynch jack, which I thought was just a stupid idea. I only went along with it because it would result in Silfferas dieing who I thought was scum.
2. In his first post, he tried to warn people not to vote 3rd by bringing it up right away.
3. He was trying to argue that the Joker would try to defend people who were converted, when really the Joker shouldn't care.
looking at this post again, I'm not quite following your logic, but I'm not good at reading into things, so I may just be dense
1. Like you said, he wanted to lynch Jack. Wouldn't the Joker be pushing to lynch other people, not the ones he's already converted? That would be optimal for his win condition.
2. Warning people not to vote third doesn't help the Joker, as it makes it so other people are reluctant to vote third, which if they weren't thinking about it, they would be more likely to do, and camouflage his own 3 vote, or help him not be the 3 vote.
3. I also was arguing the Joker would would try to defend the people who were converted, which does make sense in a way, because if the defense works, the town would kill off a vanilla, helping his win condition.
Diamondais2009-03-25 21:37:03
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 25 2009, 05:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
have you completely forgotten what you wanted to say?
Yeah, I had what I wanted to say ready in my mind when I first read your post but I got distracted by my boyfriend wanting me to do something on WoW.
It had to do with your analysis and someone's after. I know it went along with my unease at what Shiri was saying the previous day, but you are right I think. It's just little things that seem to add up together.
For now I think I'm going to Vote: Shiri and see how things go.
Dugan2009-03-25 21:58:58
I will wait to hear from Shiri before voting for him. I am a bit disturbed though that we have people who have not posted once yet. Personally I'd like to put some pressure on a few of the lurkers to see if we can at least get them to post.
Daganev2009-03-25 22:08:38
QUOTE (Kiriwe y'Kaliath @ Mar 25 2009, 02:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
looking at this post again, I'm not quite following your logic, but I'm not good at reading into things, so I may just be dense
1. Like you said, he wanted to lynch Jack. Wouldn't the Joker be pushing to lynch other people, not the ones he's already converted? That would be optimal for his win condition.
2. Warning people not to vote third doesn't help the Joker, as it makes it so other people are reluctant to vote third, which if they weren't thinking about it, they would be more likely to do, and camouflage his own 3 vote, or help him not be the 3 vote.
3. I also was arguing the Joker would would try to defend the people who were converted, which does make sense in a way, because if the defense works, the town would kill off a vanilla, helping his win condition.
1. Like you said, he wanted to lynch Jack. Wouldn't the Joker be pushing to lynch other people, not the ones he's already converted? That would be optimal for his win condition.
2. Warning people not to vote third doesn't help the Joker, as it makes it so other people are reluctant to vote third, which if they weren't thinking about it, they would be more likely to do, and camouflage his own 3 vote, or help him not be the 3 vote.
3. I also was arguing the Joker would would try to defend the people who were converted, which does make sense in a way, because if the defense works, the town would kill off a vanilla, helping his win condition.
Except for number 2, what I think you are basically saying is that Shiri's vote for jack makes him look innocent.
I can agree that it is perfectly reasonable to assume that the Joker would not want to lynch the people he converted. I think this is a strategy question and is up for debate. However, if you look at the math and such, it doesn't matter to the Joker if a person is converted or dead. Either way he is closer to his main objective. i.e. no more vanillas. People who out themselves out as being converted are no use to the Joker. Only people who have been converted and stay quite about it. Once somebody is known to not be vanilla, they serve no purpose for the Joker (mathematically)
The things I accused Shiri and Silfferas of earlier, other people are guilty of a few of those things. However, what is important is how all those things stack up into a single person creating a larger picture.
It's a bit like diagnosing a condition. Sure many people might have red eyes, and some people might laugh at stupid things, and some people might sometimes have a horse voice. However, a person who has a horse voice, red eyes, and is laughing at stupid things is likely smoking something.
Daganev2009-03-25 22:09:07
QUOTE (Dugan Diluculo @ Mar 25 2009, 02:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I will wait to hear from Shiri before voting for him. I am a bit disturbed though that we have people who have not posted once yet. Personally I'd like to put some pressure on a few of the lurkers to see if we can at least get them to post.
Perhaps the mod should ask if they want to be replaced.
Dugan2009-03-25 22:17:17
Shaddus, Renthur and Shamarah have each failed to post once. In all the games I have played with Shad before, I can't say that I've seen him do that, he's always posted something. I know he is on the forums ... just not here. Renthur was fairly quiet in the last game I was in with him. He didn't talk much at all. Shamarah I have no clue on. For the moment, I will cast a vote for Shaddus ...
VOTE : SHADDUS
VOTE : SHADDUS
kiriwe2009-03-25 22:18:18
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 25 2009, 06:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Except for number 2, what I think you are basically saying is that Shiri's vote for jack makes him look innocent.
I can agree that it is perfectly reasonable to assume that the Joker would not want to lynch the people he converted. I think this is a strategy question and is up for debate. However, if you look at the math and such, it doesn't matter to the Joker if a person is converted or dead. Either way he is closer to his main objective. i.e. no more vanillas. People who out themselves out as being converted are no use to the Joker. Only people who have been converted and stay quite about it. Once somebody is known to not be vanilla, they serve no purpose for the Joker (mathematically)
I can agree that it is perfectly reasonable to assume that the Joker would not want to lynch the people he converted. I think this is a strategy question and is up for debate. However, if you look at the math and such, it doesn't matter to the Joker if a person is converted or dead. Either way he is closer to his main objective. i.e. no more vanillas. People who out themselves out as being converted are no use to the Joker. Only people who have been converted and stay quite about it. Once somebody is known to not be vanilla, they serve no purpose for the Joker (mathematically)
Oh, I'm not saying he's innocent, I was just having difficulty following your reasoning.
@bolded
That's not true, though. A convert is a non-vanilla, regardless of whether they are out in the open or not. As long as the Joker doesn't accidentally make somebody who can re-vanilla somebody, it doesnt matter once somebody is converted, they help the Joker's win condition regardless.
Daganev2009-03-25 22:34:57
QUOTE (Dugan Diluculo @ Mar 25 2009, 03:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Shaddus, Renthur and Shamarah have each failed to post once. In all the games I have played with Shad before, I can't say that I've seen him do that, he's always posted something. I know he is on the forums ... just not here. Renthur was fairly quiet in the last game I was in with him. He didn't talk much at all. Shamarah I have no clue on. For the moment, I will cast a vote for Shaddus ...
VOTE : SHADDUS
VOTE : SHADDUS
I'd vote for Shamarah if that is your reasoning. he -always- comments as soon as people start talking about no lynch. Otherwise, like renthur is he usually quite.
Daganev2009-03-25 22:38:52
QUOTE (Kiriwe y'Kaliath @ Mar 25 2009, 03:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Oh, I'm not saying he's innocent, I was just having difficulty following your reasoning.
@bolded
That's not true, though. A convert is a non-vanilla, regardless of whether they are out in the open or not. As long as the Joker doesn't accidentally make somebody who can re-vanilla somebody, it doesnt matter once somebody is converted, they help the Joker's win condition regardless.
@bolded
That's not true, though. A convert is a non-vanilla, regardless of whether they are out in the open or not. As long as the Joker doesn't accidentally make somebody who can re-vanilla somebody, it doesnt matter once somebody is converted, they help the Joker's win condition regardless.
But out in the open they risk getting lynched by the town anyways. So you push for them to be lynched first. The tactic is known as Distancing.
kiriwe2009-03-25 22:39:27
I've seen Shamarah lurking, too, but no comments.
Vote: Shamarah
Untill I find somebody suspicious.
Vote: Shamarah
Untill I find somebody suspicious.
Daganev2009-03-25 22:41:55
hmm, but I will have to rethink this again, maybe you are right cause I doubt Shiri/the Joker would let both of the conversions get killed without an alternate plan. I have to look at the vote timings again. But I have no better ideas of who might be guilty than Shiri right now, and the only thing making me think he might -possibly- be innocent, is because he accepted what appeared to be inevitable.
Daganev2009-03-25 22:44:30
Yeah I take back what I said. Shiri was voting for me all the way untill the very last second. And when he did vote, he didn't give his own twist on the reasoning, he just repeated what I (or someone else) had allready posted.
I'm sticking to Shiri.
I'm sticking to Shiri.
Zynna2009-03-25 22:49:34
QUOTE (Kiriwe y'Kaliath @ Mar 25 2009, 05:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's not true, though. A convert is a non-vanilla, regardless of whether they are out in the open or not. As long as the Joker doesn't accidentally make somebody who can re-vanilla somebody, it doesnt matter once somebody is converted, they help the Joker's win condition regardless.
Not necessarily. The joker would still have to look out for roleblockers/serial killers that might kill him/her, etc.
It would be interesting to know if the joker knows what role its target converts into.
I would like to hear what the non-posters have to say.
