Daganev2009-03-29 18:35:50
meh, Jester is a possibility. Question is, would the jester's existance keep the game going? Also, it could just be a form of a "rage quit" gambit.
his assumptions are not far off, I agree with that. What I don't like is the fact that the numbers he has associated with his theory are way off.
If there were 3 people converted night 0, then he's numbers would be 50% for shamarah being the last scum.
If 4, then it would be 33% to be the last scum. if 5, it would be 20%
There is no "100%" chance here... It could be said about everyone, "if they are the last, then there is a 100% chance they are the last" but that isn't a true measure of the odds of us being correct or not.
It's possible he is just being too agressive and so his thinking is wrong. But for some reason he seems to insist that his conclusion of 50% or 100% are accurate, but they are not.
his assumptions are not far off, I agree with that. What I don't like is the fact that the numbers he has associated with his theory are way off.
If there were 3 people converted night 0, then he's numbers would be 50% for shamarah being the last scum.
If 4, then it would be 33% to be the last scum. if 5, it would be 20%
There is no "100%" chance here... It could be said about everyone, "if they are the last, then there is a 100% chance they are the last" but that isn't a true measure of the odds of us being correct or not.
It's possible he is just being too agressive and so his thinking is wrong. But for some reason he seems to insist that his conclusion of 50% or 100% are accurate, but they are not.
Zynna2009-03-29 20:41:33
I would think that a jester would keep the game alive because it would be possible for the jester to win instead of the town, so the game would still be in play.
Initially I wanted to kill all abnormals because I was too afraud to lose a vanilla given the joker's win condition. That has changed now that we know the joker is dead. But, I am still suspicious of Shamarah because he has told us he is a watcher, but unless I missed it, he didn't share what he learned this past night. At this point, I would think that he would share all info because he's already roleclaimed so his input can only help.
Renthur also seems somewhat suspicious to me because he stated with deifnitiveness that there were 5 converts on Night 0, although we don't know the exact number (although later he did say that was based on Cas's Batman post.)
By my count, there are at least two abnormals out there: Shamarah from Night 0 (I don't see why he would lie about which night he was converted) and at least one from Night 1. If Sham is telling the truth about his role, then there should only be 3 abnormals at most: Sham, Night one convert, Night two convert's convert. I don't see how that puts us in a losing situation automatically. I think we've done quite well so far!
Initially I wanted to kill all abnormals because I was too afraud to lose a vanilla given the joker's win condition. That has changed now that we know the joker is dead. But, I am still suspicious of Shamarah because he has told us he is a watcher, but unless I missed it, he didn't share what he learned this past night. At this point, I would think that he would share all info because he's already roleclaimed so his input can only help.
Renthur also seems somewhat suspicious to me because he stated with deifnitiveness that there were 5 converts on Night 0, although we don't know the exact number (although later he did say that was based on Cas's Batman post.)
By my count, there are at least two abnormals out there: Shamarah from Night 0 (I don't see why he would lie about which night he was converted) and at least one from Night 1. If Sham is telling the truth about his role, then there should only be 3 abnormals at most: Sham, Night one convert, Night two convert's convert. I don't see how that puts us in a losing situation automatically. I think we've done quite well so far!
Fania2009-03-29 20:51:40
QUOTE (Zynna @ Mar 29 2009, 01:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
By my count, there are at least two abnormals out there: Shamarah from Night 0 (I don't see why he would lie about which night he was converted) and at least one from Night 1. If Sham is telling the truth about his role, then there should only be 3 abnormals at most: Sham, Night one convert, Night two convert's convert. I don't see how that puts us in a losing situation automatically. I think we've done quite well so far!
Shamarah's targets didn't turn up any information from what he said. Which gives us nothing to go on.
kiriwe2009-03-29 20:57:00
well, the only way a jester could keep the game going is if we had some way to kill him other than a lynch, otherwise there is no way for the town to win, since lynching the jester makes the jester win
Fania2009-03-29 21:01:42
QUOTE (Kiriwe y'Kaliath @ Mar 29 2009, 01:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
well, the only way a jester could keep the game going is if we had some way to kill him other than a lynch, otherwise there is no way for the town to win, since lynching the jester makes the jester win
Umm what? A jester's win has absolutely nothing to do with the win of the town. Remember in the last game we played and Fylar died and the game still went on? A jester will not affect how the game is played, just how many abnormals there are.
Daganev2009-03-29 21:06:19
Kiriwe was responding to zynna who thought that a jester would make the game continue. I agree with kiriwe, it doesn't make sense. I believe that the jester loses if the town doesn't lynch him.
Also shamarah said that he watched both me and shiri, and nobody targeted either of us.
Also shamarah said that he watched both me and shiri, and nobody targeted either of us.
Zynna2009-03-29 21:09:27
Ahh, okay. In that case I agree we shouldn't lynch Shamarah right now, as having a town with some helpful power could be useful.
kiriwe2009-03-29 22:24:40
can we get a vote count, Cas?
Casilu2009-03-29 22:55:56
WELCOME TO DAY 3.
Shamarah 1 - ( Fania)
Tekora 6 - (Shamarah, Dugan, Kiriwe, Solanis, Dagane, Tekora)
With 14 alive, it's 8 to lynch.
Doman2009-03-29 23:00:15
Eh, I can't give the game the attention it deserves. Just replace me, or...whatever.
kiriwe2009-03-29 23:44:49
We're at a really bad spot to be replacing anybody right now, Doman
Fania2009-03-30 01:31:08
I'm really surprised that Kiriwe isn't on anyone's list at all right now. Seriously, she's been #3 or #4 on three separate votes in this game.
kiriwe2009-03-30 01:47:05
There's pretty good reasons for why my votes have fallen where they have, at least, I think so. I'm not afraid to vote 3 or 4 because I'm not scum. In fact, at one point I voted 3 on Silferras after Daganev asked for somebody to vote 3 to proove a point.
Fania2009-03-30 02:28:37
I'm going to go ahead and Unvote Vote Tekora
(Sorry I took so long to do this, been an off day for me. I don't fully trust people who vote for yourself. I think it's pretty silly to vote for yourself if you are vanilla just to prove a point. It doesn't help the town or yourself. Most likely he's an abnormal. It makes sense if he's either a jester, or trying to make people think he's not an abnormal. In any case.. If we don't lynch him now, then he probably wont be any help tomorrow.
(Sorry I took so long to do this, been an off day for me. I don't fully trust people who vote for yourself. I think it's pretty silly to vote for yourself if you are vanilla just to prove a point. It doesn't help the town or yourself. Most likely he's an abnormal. It makes sense if he's either a jester, or trying to make people think he's not an abnormal. In any case.. If we don't lynch him now, then he probably wont be any help tomorrow.
Tekora2009-03-30 02:54:36
Just make sure you all repost my notes on the five scenarios. You're gonna need them.
Fania2009-03-30 03:04:04
QUOTE (Tekora @ Mar 29 2009, 07:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just make sure you all repost my notes on the five scenarios. You're gonna need them.
Might as well grant one dying wish. I believe Dag also had another scenario to add, so we'll get that one in there too.
Daganev2009-03-30 04:13:14
QUOTE (Fania @ Mar 29 2009, 08:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Might as well grant one dying wish. I believe Dag also had another scenario to add, so we'll get that one in there too.
I did? I must have mispoke. I just meant that of his senarios, there are more options than just 50% or 100%
Fania2009-03-30 04:21:56
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 29 2009, 09:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I did? I must have mispoke. I just meant that of his senarios, there are more options than just 50% or 100%
Maybe that's what you said.
Anyways, we still need one more vote to lynch Tekora.
Diamondais2009-03-30 05:34:37
So voting for Tekora is the option of today?
Unknown2009-03-30 05:38:49
... do what you think is right.