can't really go into but i can assure you that this plan would fail to verrify her story

Actually getting you daykilled is more like giving your claim a better chance than it deserves from your behaviour - means if you were telling the truth we can get rid of Rika today instead of waiting for tomorrow and roleblocking her tonight (assumes Xiran is telling the truth but she seems to be sticking up for you so if you're town she probably is too, likewise if you're scum.)

I know Daganev died, I was just hoping we had used the other daykill than Noola's...if Noola used hers I don't think we have another one.

True about Myrkr, we don't really need her after rezzing the doctor seemingly as a townie though.

Uh...well that is the whole point of the plan, and if you can give a convincing enough hint as to why it wouldn't work there is really no point going for you first instead of her first, so I'll switch votes.

Well it would probably have something to do with me mentioning there was a 5% chance she is town. She'll just pull a xavius and hold out till the end lying through her teeth.

That sounds like you're not confident in your own investigation/role again. This 5% seems like a red herring. Either there's some scenario in which Rika is town due to malfunction of your ability, and we have to lynch you tomorrow (and then you use the "5%" as an excuse) or we lynch you, find you're telling the truth about the investigation and yet something other than a percentage chance in your role (which we would just ignore and kill her over anyway) would make us not lynch her? Ehhhhh.

I mean, you did see how well, "pulling a Xavius" worked for Xavius, right? I'm starting to not like this.


UNVOTE
VOTE LLANDROS

If Llandros is indeed telling the truth (by a 5% chance), we are in a lose-lose situation. You lynch him today and find out he is town, you'll lynch me tomorrow and find out I'm town. You lynch me today and find out I'm town, you'll lynch him tomorrow and find out he is town. Basically, if he is telling the truth, we're losing two townies and the potential to lynch two more SKs/scum/whatever.

I really don't know what to do now. :/ I'll still use my power to lynch whoever if you want, though.

Yes, but here's how I look at it. If Llandros is telling the truth, in that there's a 5% chance he's wrong, then it starts to make me nervous. Is it 5% everytime? Is it sometimes 90%? How many other things might be factoring in to the margin of error that he's not telling us? What if he doesn't tell us that there's a margin of error or lies about the extent of it? Now I have an investigator, whom I'm supposed to use as an information tool, that might be giving me false information.

It's akin to what's happened with people and the internet. People now are starting to believe everything they read on the internet because it's "published". We all know that 98% of the internet is crap. But when people take these "facts" and us them as such, it can make for dangerous and embarrassing situations. Just like the geniuses of the interwebs, I as well as others are ignorant as to how credible our source information is now.

On the other hand, given your scenario, then logic says we should lynch you first, because:

1. We lynch rika. rika is sk/scum/non-town. Llandros is proven right. We don't lynch Llandros next.
2. We lynch rika. rika is town. Llandros yells 5%. We lynch Llandros for generally scummy vibes, for the chance that he might be non-town, and for retribution in leading us astray.

So, you're right, I guess. You're slowly convincing me that I should go back to you first.

We -cannot- treat the 5% as having happened in any scenario. If Llandros dies and is town, we -must- lynch Rika tomorrow, 5% be damned. If we lose because of it, well, that's too bad.

But that's only if it actually is a 5% chance in the mathematical sense and not just an "I might be wrong due to X, let me assign a random probability to it", or worse, "I'm hedging my bets for plausible deniability."

Unrelated scenario: if Rika is scum, I'm going to be highly wary of Dugan.

Why me?

Also, I just want to bring this up while I remember: the front page says Kiriwe was modkilled on night two, so she didn't use an ability that night...so there's only a 25% chance Llandros was roleblocked by Xavius night 2 (because he would have died in the other 75% chance) and Xiran claimed she didn't.

1. 25% chance
2. Llandros is lying
3. Xiran is lying
4. We have a mysterious scum roleblocker lurking around here somewhere - still a few people without full claims

Number 1 is a high enough probability, unlike Llandros' phantom 5%, that we can't disregard it, and so we shouldn't really use this info for our lynch today, but let's keep it in mind for tomorrow.
The one thing that would foil this whole speculation is if Kiriwe could have sent in an action on night 2, so Casilu since she was modkilled due to qq is it possible for you to confirm whether she sent anything in that night?

Because it means Llandros is a legit town investigator, while you failed to turn up anything on her. But we'll get around to that later.

She quit day one, make a guess.

Oh, I thought she might have continued to "play" until replaced. That clears that up then. So yeah, keep that in mind guys, 75% chance something funny is going on there.

I can daykill again.

Do you want I should be killin someone?

I told Shiri to hide all of the kitchen knives!

*peer Shiri* Solanis could have lied in order to protect more people. You're being rather selective about the scenarios you're presenting.

What? Why would claiming to target me when he hadn't done so, when I could probably confirm it due to ninja boost, when he was under pressure of lynch (and indeed got lynched that day) make any sense at all? Do you have any actual smarter scenarios than that pile? I may have overlooked a legitimate one.

(Stop with the percentages! This isn't Death Note!)
Solanis could have done that because people were complaining about revealed doctors being useless. He could have just tried to make the best of it by confusing the scum to cover more people.
Or your possibility number 3. Solanis did cover you and there's one of those roleblocker-type scum, either roleblocking out-going powers or in-coming powers, that was on either Solanis or you respectively.
Or. You're scum and were happy to get protection and a power-boost the first night. But chose not to reveal your powers because they would reveal you as scummy. And getting the doctor lynched the next day wouldn't hurt.