Yeah.. Which is why Xavius's suggestion is odd, least to me. Ronin are going to want to eliminate other Ronin while avoiding leaders, least until someone recruits them. Once that happens, they would want to focus on finding and eliminating opposing leaders. Playing passive only allows you to keep more competitors in the way of your eventually recruitment and if you are in a faction adds more bodies to mask you. I don't understand this course of action being combined with the reasons stated. Xavius, mind clearing it up a bit more?

Lynch is 50% + 1. Even assuming your motives are solid (and they're not), there's no case in which a majority will appreciate a lynch.

Xavius has a fair point, but for the purposes of trolling I am going to Vote: Solanis

I agree with Xavius here. There's no reason for leaders to lynch prospective ronin, and no reason for ronin to lynch prospective teammates. I'm going to wait until sides are chosen before even thinking about strangling someone. 12 players to start, 3 leaders, 9 ronin, 3 recruited, 6 unaligned. The only logical course of action is.....

VOTE: NO LYNCH

Just as an aside, my information is on the Lusternia Stalkers page, so that we can circumvent the stupid 5 minute PM cooldown.

This post mostly intended for Othero, so that he can use PMs for something other than answer my incessant questions.

Hi! Interesting game! But I'm confused as to how the end game gonna work out, with three warring groups and no traditional 'town'. What are people lynching on the basis of? Not scumminess. Basically if you're not in the group... lynch!?

And no more cookies for you, Alianna!

We can no lynch or lynch a random. Both options are meh (for me), since there's no town, it's not like lynching a random is bad. If there's any inactive/lurker people can just lynch them!

Honestly, I think we would be able to achieve a lynch if it was pushed for, because no side is in full majority, and unaligned ronin could easily be convinced to vote for X because of reasons already stated (higher chance to get picked for a group if target is rogue). There's also the chance that Shogun may want to get rid of someone who has been recruited by someone else, since they'll know if someone was recruited by someone else if their recruitment fails, thus they have essentially cult/investigative powers.

tl;dr. Lynching on day 1 can be accomplished.

What do you people think of mass claiming? It's advantageous for ronins to claim to attract recruitment. Unless of course you're a really useless ronin...

Or an exceedingly powerful ronin. If we claim, as a random list "doctor, stalker, watcher, hider, REZZER, cop, vig" then guess whom everyone will be going after. It will also give a powerful advantage to the Shogun who gets the vig on his side, because he'll be able to have his opposition assassinated. Even more so if that vig has already been recruited since then he's pretty much guaranteed to have at least one shogun eliminated.. Since recruitment is also handled on a "first come, first served" basis, it could make for a very short and very luck-based game.

That's my prediction at least. Of course, if you want to reveal your role in an attempt to get a Shogun to recruit you, you're free to do so, but it'd be a risky, luck-based strategy.

Can't say I disagree with Kira's assessment right now. If a power role claims, it will be picked up by one of the sides, and then two of the sides will know it meaning they could work together to eliminate it. Claiming powers is a great way to get recruited, but also a very fast way to die.

Good day, all. Right now I think the no lynch makes sense. It's not like any ronin have to be killed off in order for everyone to find a faction ... if nobody died, all 3 factions could have their total of 4 people in the group and no one would be left not in a faction. So non-aligned ronin don't really have a reason to lynch, and lynching a leader (which would be a long shot) would hurt more -- because then there would be only 2 factions with only 8 people max in them. So that would leave some ronin out in the dark.

Vote: No lynch

It doesn't make sense to claim powers right now either. If someone claims a power role, and all 3 factions try to recruit that ronin, one faction will get it -- the other two will fail in their attempts to gain a new member and be hurt, and the power role will be at risk of being killed from the other two factions, who will have aligned interests on that point.

If only one faction can win, what does it matter if every ronin gets inducted into a faction or not. Non aligned ronin do have a reason to lynch. Each shogun knows two roles ... theirs and who they recruited. It is a one in ten shot on who they try to recruit the next night if no one dies. Ronin do not win simply by being recruited.

True, especially considering we don't know if every Ronin will even survive the night. If one Ronin dies, three other people are going to lose this game. I could see this as a arguement for not voting though, outing a leader this soon would be bad for all the Ronin, but I think it is a tad silly to assume that every other Ronin is your friend. 2/3 odds say they won't be or never were.

Ugh, I was meaning to say Shogun instead of Ronin there. What I get for posting after waking up.

It could, but Xavius is making the argument that it makes no sense for anyone to lynch. Wandering ronin don't want to accidentally lynch a leader, because then some of them -will- be left out in the dark with no hope for a win. Leaders don't want to lynch wandering ronin for fear of killing off a useful power role.


But they instantly lose by being left in the grimdark.

Right now we have 12 people. Assuming that the leaders' conversions were all successful early this morning, that means we have 6 already in a faction (2-2-2) and 6 without a faction.

For non-faction ronin, there is 1/4 chance of lynching a leader, which will hurt the chances of being recruited into the remaining two because there will be competition for those slots and a 1/4 chance of lynching someone in the ronin's future faction (assuming recruitment), which will also hurt chances of success. So there are 4 people total that unfactioned ronin do not want to lynch (3 shogun + their future faction's ronin that was recruited this morning), so overall there is 1/3 chance of lynching someone that will be harmful to self-interests. That risk is pretty high compared to the chance of harm with a no-lynch vote.

For factioned ronin, there is a 1/3 chance of lynching someone in another faction. And 1/6 chance of lynching another shogun. Factioned ronin likely are not harmed by lynching a non-recruited ronin either as it doesn't affect the win condition, and only lowers the amount of potential recruits left. While it would be nice to avoid lynching a power role that could potentially be recruited, there is no guarantee the faction would be able to successfully recruit that power role, and the loss of a power role for all may be worth it (especially if a faction can make up for it by recruiting other ronin and getting the bodies for the votes they want to make in the future).

Inane game-related thought:

If we the players are the faction leaders and ronin, what does that make Othero? The Emperor?

For the neutral ronin, there's also the aspect where you're not able to control what team you get drafted into. If we kill off the shogun's recruit, one of us is going to end up on the shogun's team afterwards, and we're straight up gimped.

Neutral ronin won't remain that way all game. Othero's mechanics give the lords a way to know who's already recruited. It'll take more than two days, but barring a quick ending, everyone's going to get recruited.