In your A and B, I am neither. I am playing the numbers. Day 1. Three leaders, each made one pick. They had to pick between 11 names. The odds of any ronin getting picked was one out of eleven. I wanted to increase my odds of getting picked from one out of eleven to one out of ten. Same thing on day two. Each leader could pick one other person. Depending on their luck on night one, and the leader could have a pick of one out of ten ... or one out of nine. Each name that is eliminated increases the odds that this ronin gets picked.

Dugan is right. Someone is going to have to die, unless we want the game to win in no victory.

"Result", thanks Shiri.

Dugan, your math is off for the reason posted in the quote. The odds of the first day recruit were 3/9 or 1/3 for any given ronin to be recruited, since Othero said that he informed leaders if their recruit target was already spoken for (see the quote). 12 players, 9 of which are ronin, 3 were recruited first day, leaving 6 unrecruited. The rule changed after first day (too lazy to find the post) to "if you fail recruit, it's a whiff and that's that".

Also, if you really are just a wandering ronin as you claim to be, you wouldn't want to kill off other people, because it means that the team you end up on might get short-changed, especially with trying to lynch on day 1, as you tried to do. The Day 1 lynch attempt is why I'm highly suspicious of you.

Summary: You're not a wandering Ronin, which means a good number of people have good reason to want to lynch you. Even wandering ronin will want to lynch you at this point, because if you're wandering, you're competing for the last few slots on a team to win, and if you're already on a team, then all the other aligned ronin/leaders want you removed. Therefore, I'm not surprised you got 4 votes as fast as you did. In fact, I'm more surprised we haven't hit 6 yet. Everyone who voted is still voting in a logical pattern, except for your vote for Romertien, which came out with no reasoning behind it.

Aaaaand I really shouldn't post when sleep-deprived....

And that rule was changed, Tervic.

Too early. Need coffee.

Alright. Had the coffee. Did some errands. My math was off at the start. The rule did change after the first batch was recruited, not before. Aside from that, my math is still right.

Why wouldn't any wandering ronin want to kill of people on day one, day two or whatever. By the nature of mafia, each team will get short changed. Only three ronin can be recruited on a team. On day one, we had 12 people. The only person any given leader knew was his team (them and one other). That only gave them a one in ten shot at the next recruitment. Leaders do not know the other leaders ... one in ten. I wanted slightly better odds ... one in nine in the hopes of getting recruited. That is not flawed math.

As for the last paragraph ... the game hasn't changed from day one to day three. Its still the same game ... so why is it now "safe" to start lynching. We were competing for spots on day one and day two ... this day is no different. Competing for spots is competing for spots, regardless of the day.

If there were no lynches or kills, you would have had a 100% chance of being recruited by the end of day 3 (under the rules regime in place during day 1). If you look at the rules, everyone knew that there were three leaders at the start, and 9 ronin to be recruited. Each leader gets to pick 3 ronin to recruit. 3x3=9 ronin recruited, each team having 4 total players. Othero already posted that he was informing leaders of failed recruits and letting them reroll, thus making the odds of any given ronin being 1/(x) where x is the number of unrecruited ronin. But then you also need to factor in that there were 3 leaders making recruitments, so the odds are multiplied by 3, meaning you have a 3/(x) chance of being recruited. With 6 ronin available after the Early Morning phase, your odds of being recruited were 3/6, or 1/2. Odds really can't get much better than that.

Look at it like this: If you kill off other wanderers day 1, there are fewer to be recruited into the teams. You claim this enhances your chances of being recruited. While this may be true, day 1 lynch still makes no logical sense. If Leader X recruits you first round, but one of the wandering ronin is killed off, then the next day Leader X whiffs because all remaining ronin are taken, you're on a team at a significant disadvantage. Your team has 3 people, while all the other teams have 4. That is why the day 1 lynch attempt made no sense whatsoever.

However, the game has changed a LOT since day 1. There are no longer 9 spots to be recruited into, only 6, and only 2 leaders recruiting instead of 3. It's safe to start lynching because I presume that teams are getting full, and there are surplus wandering ronin to go 'round.

A 100% chance to be recruited by day 3. Each leader knows who is on their team and their team only. They do not know who the other leaders recruited, they know who they did and they did only. Leader A recruits 1. He has a one in ten on the next recruitment. He does not know the other leaders or who they chose. He does not know that any certain player was picked for a team or not. He has a one in ten choice. not a one in six.

Second, each team can only have four people. You need six to lynch. You need other teams/ronin to eliminate the other teams.

Odds of recruitment table under the day 1 recruitment regime:
Early morning: 3/9 = 1/3 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 1/3)
Night 1: 3/6 = 1/2 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 1/3 + (1/2 * 2/3) = 2/3)
Night 2: 2/(4|3) = 1/2 or 2/3 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 2/3 + (2/3 * 1/3) = 8/9)

Odds of recruitment including rules modification midway through day 1:
Early morning: 3/9 = 1/3 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 1/3)
Night 1: 3/10 = >1/3 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: > 5/9 = 0.533)
Night 2: 2/9 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: > 5/9 + 2/9*4/9 = 0.65)

Odds of recruitment including rules modification midway through day 1 and allowing a lynch day 1:
Early morning: 3/9 = 1/3 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 1/3)
Night 1: 3/9 = 1/3 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 5/9 = 0.55)
Night 2: 2/8 =1/4 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 6/9 = 2/3 = 0.66)

You improve your odds of recruitment by 2% with a first day lynch.

Note to self: Stop playing forum mafia when at work.

Oh, I almost forgot, if you'd lynched a leader day 1 (1/4 chance):

Odds of recruitment including rules modification midway through day 1 and allowing a lynch day 1:
Early morning: 3/9 = 1/3 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 1/3)
Night 1: 2/9 (Odds that Dugan is recruited by this point in the game: 1/3 + 2/9*2/3 = 0.48)

Expected chance to be recruited night 1 assuming random lynch day 1:

3/4*0.55 + 1/4*0.48 = 0.53.

So my bad, you don't actually gain anything, you barely break even on the expected value.

Then again, I should assume you weren't recruited Early Morning, judging by your posts, so the EV under that assumption is
Day 1 lynch: 3/4*1/3 + 1/4*2/9 = 0.30
No lynch: 3/10 = 0.30

So yeah, I guess you break even.

We have players 1-12.

If player 1 is a leader, on night one, he could recruit player 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12. Player 1 has no idea who else what other numbers are leaders. Player 1 can induct any one of players 2 -12. He inducts player 2. On the next night, Player 1 can induct player 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12. One out of 10. Same odds for the other three leaders. Yes, at the end of day one, 1/2 of the ronin were inducted. For any successful induction though, it was one out of ten for night two.

Please, please, please don't turn this into "The Quest 3/touhou 2" head-pounding interest-killiing discussion of maths.

Besides, you're both wrong. The math is only valid if ronin-selection was truly random. However, it isn't. Shogun will pick ronin to induct based on certain criteria (likelyhood of being selected, likelyhood of having a useful power) and so on.

Alright Kira. will give it up on the math.

Thanks. Sorry for snapping like that. I'm just having a bad spell of stress and logic studies, so the last I wanted was this game being taken over by the math.

Anyway, what worries me is how silent so many people are. Do anyone have anything to say or speak up about?

Besides math I mean.

1+1=2