Shiri2009-11-17 13:29:09
Which is not to say that everything I said was valid, we do have to pay more attention to that than I thought, but we still have to deal with it somehow, jester is easy and profitable to fake and sheets account for the lack of conversions.
Actually, I'm gonna take a gamble and Vote: Xavius. Sheets and xavius faking seems more likely to me than jesters randomly counting as vanilla - if it's jesters counting as vanilla until it's not certain that killing him early won't cancel out his thing even if he is telling the truth. It's hard to verify but Kira's hypothetical just seems wrong to me - although it's not necessarily that Kira is scummy for claiming it since there's no obvious motive for that...
'scuse the triple post.
Actually, I'm gonna take a gamble and Vote: Xavius. Sheets and xavius faking seems more likely to me than jesters randomly counting as vanilla - if it's jesters counting as vanilla until it's not certain that killing him early won't cancel out his thing even if he is telling the truth. It's hard to verify but Kira's hypothetical just seems wrong to me - although it's not necessarily that Kira is scummy for claiming it since there's no obvious motive for that...
'scuse the triple post.
Unknown2009-11-17 13:39:21
Vote: Bali
He voted for me without giving any reason and hasn't posted since. He's either MIA or out to make trouble and neither is helpful to us, especially with so few clues to go on.
He voted for me without giving any reason and hasn't posted since. He's either MIA or out to make trouble and neither is helpful to us, especially with so few clues to go on.
Aerotan2009-11-17 17:56:54
There's also the slim chance that the bit about the next conversions being the jesters referring to the next conversion from a level 2 or the next autoconversion. I'm just guessing, though, since I'm quite frankly at a loss for ideas.
However, I can certainly still see the logic of yesterday's argument that not lynching Xavius is a good idea, at least until we know who the other two jesters are.
I'm not liking Bali's single vote with no reason and no follow up, though.
Vote: Bali
However, I can certainly still see the logic of yesterday's argument that not lynching Xavius is a good idea, at least until we know who the other two jesters are.
I'm not liking Bali's single vote with no reason and no follow up, though.
Vote: Bali
Llandros2009-11-17 18:20:14
Theory 1
Night zero everyone is an orb except for two.
*We have our ghostbuster who may have reasonably decided not to kill someone on night zero since he is town.
*We have at least one role that can convert people either virgo or gozer and they/it converts somone.
*Then we have the third, that Xavius claims to be the one converted.
Day one 3 non-vanilla
Night one
*Ghostbuster kills
*Vigozer converts a class two ghost (one that changes on the second night)
*Xavius has not night ability.
Day two 3 non-vanilla roles
Theory 2
Everyone except the ghostbuster is an orb
*Ghostbuster who chooses not to kill
*virgo is auto converted
*gozer is auto converted
day one 3 non-vanilla
night one
*ghostbuster kills
*virgo and gozer both convert class two ghosts.
day two 3 non-vanilla
In theory 1 xavius is telling the truth in theory 2 he's a big ol' liar.
Ways to tell
1) lynch xavius
2) see how many non vanilla there are tomorrow and see if the math allows for xavius to have been telling the truth
Night zero everyone is an orb except for two.
*We have our ghostbuster who may have reasonably decided not to kill someone on night zero since he is town.
*We have at least one role that can convert people either virgo or gozer and they/it converts somone.
*Then we have the third, that Xavius claims to be the one converted.
Day one 3 non-vanilla
Night one
*Ghostbuster kills
*Vigozer converts a class two ghost (one that changes on the second night)
*Xavius has not night ability.
Day two 3 non-vanilla roles
Theory 2
Everyone except the ghostbuster is an orb
*Ghostbuster who chooses not to kill
*virgo is auto converted
*gozer is auto converted
day one 3 non-vanilla
night one
*ghostbuster kills
*virgo and gozer both convert class two ghosts.
day two 3 non-vanilla
In theory 1 xavius is telling the truth in theory 2 he's a big ol' liar.
Ways to tell
1) lynch xavius
2) see how many non vanilla there are tomorrow and see if the math allows for xavius to have been telling the truth
Xavius2009-11-17 19:00:25
Your second theory is a bit eerie since it considers not the numbers we got.
Llandros2009-11-17 19:14:30
Vote Xavius
Trappy trap trap trap
Theory 1 wouldn't be possible since Xavius' conversion would dictate that the next conversion be one of his trio and not a class two ghost. Knowing that better than anyone else he still supported it.
Trappy trap trap trap
Theory 1 wouldn't be possible since Xavius' conversion would dictate that the next conversion be one of his trio and not a class two ghost. Knowing that better than anyone else he still supported it.
Xavius2009-11-17 19:53:08
QUOTE (Llandros @ Nov 17 2009, 01:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Vote Xavius
Trappy trap trap trap
Theory 1 wouldn't be possible since Xavius' conversion would dictate that the next conversion be one of his trio and not a class two ghost. Knowing that better than anyone else he still supported it.
Trappy trap trap trap
Theory 1 wouldn't be possible since Xavius' conversion would dictate that the next conversion be one of his trio and not a class two ghost. Knowing that better than anyone else he still supported it.
Vote: Xavius
Object to a lynch I do not, but I've given the information I got. You theories do not need refined when the information given is rhymed. You, however, not burdened so can take a bit of initiative and backwards go.
Daganev2009-11-17 19:58:43
QUOTE (Llandros @ Nov 17 2009, 11:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Vote Xavius
Trappy trap trap trap
Theory 1 wouldn't be possible since Xavius' conversion would dictate that the next conversion be one of his trio and not a class two ghost. Knowing that better than anyone else he still supported it.
Trappy trap trap trap
Theory 1 wouldn't be possible since Xavius' conversion would dictate that the next conversion be one of his trio and not a class two ghost. Knowing that better than anyone else he still supported it.
Xavius argued from the begining that Casilu doesn't know what a "vanilla" is, because he wasn't vanilla but the count didn't make sense to him.
I'd rather lynch bali, and then if he is an orb, lynch Xavius tommorow.
Kiradawea2009-11-17 20:06:03
Besides, tomorrow we can see how the "vanilla count" turn up with one more night of conversions...
Oh why not. Vote: BaLi
Oh why not. Vote: BaLi
Zynna2009-11-17 20:53:12
I think in addition to the rhyming, the fact that Xavius has been willing to vote for himself twice, and has, indicates that he is one of Bo/Sham group. Because they need to be out of the game to win.
I'm fine voting for Bali to try and get him to talk. I did a quick scan and think he has 3 or 4 votes already, but far short of the number needed to lynch, so I think it's safe to:
Vote: Bali
I'm fine voting for Bali to try and get him to talk. I did a quick scan and think he has 3 or 4 votes already, but far short of the number needed to lynch, so I think it's safe to:
Vote: Bali
Daganev2009-11-17 21:23:47
QUOTE (Zynna @ Nov 17 2009, 12:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think in addition to the rhyming, the fact that Xavius has been willing to vote for himself twice, and has, indicates that he is one of Bo/Sham group. Because they need to be out of the game to win.
Thats an easy scare/bluff tactic for a person to make. If he ever tried to not be lynched, that very attempt would get him lynched. Bluffing or not, his best strategy is to argue to be lynched, but not too forcefully. Which he has been doing.
Mirami2009-11-17 21:25:01
I can jump on the caboose of the Vote: Bali train.
Daganev2009-11-17 22:00:11
I'm not sure if the post I wrote in my blackberry yesterday got through, so I'll vote bali in case it didn't.
Unknown2009-11-17 23:09:53
QUOTE (Llandros @ Nov 17 2009, 10:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Theory 1
Night zero everyone is an orb except for two.
*We have our ghostbuster who may have reasonably decided not to kill someone on night zero since he is town.
*We have at least one role that can convert people either virgo or gozer and they/it converts somone.
*Then we have the third, that Xavius claims to be the one converted.
Day one 3 non-vanilla
Night one
*Ghostbuster kills
*Vigozer converts a class two ghost (one that changes on the second night)
*Xavius has not night ability.
Day two 3 non-vanilla roles
Theory 2
Everyone except the ghostbuster is an orb
*Ghostbuster who chooses not to kill
*virgo is auto converted
*gozer is auto converted
day one 3 non-vanilla
night one
*ghostbuster kills
*virgo and gozer both convert class two ghosts.
day two 3 non-vanilla
In theory 1 xavius is telling the truth in theory 2 he's a big ol' liar.
Ways to tell
1) lynch xavius
2) see how many non vanilla there are tomorrow and see if the math allows for xavius to have been telling the truth
Last night was night two, fyi. There was a night before the first day round.Night zero everyone is an orb except for two.
*We have our ghostbuster who may have reasonably decided not to kill someone on night zero since he is town.
*We have at least one role that can convert people either virgo or gozer and they/it converts somone.
*Then we have the third, that Xavius claims to be the one converted.
Day one 3 non-vanilla
Night one
*Ghostbuster kills
*Vigozer converts a class two ghost (one that changes on the second night)
*Xavius has not night ability.
Day two 3 non-vanilla roles
Theory 2
Everyone except the ghostbuster is an orb
*Ghostbuster who chooses not to kill
*virgo is auto converted
*gozer is auto converted
day one 3 non-vanilla
night one
*ghostbuster kills
*virgo and gozer both convert class two ghosts.
day two 3 non-vanilla
In theory 1 xavius is telling the truth in theory 2 he's a big ol' liar.
Ways to tell
1) lynch xavius
2) see how many non vanilla there are tomorrow and see if the math allows for xavius to have been telling the truth
Llandros2009-11-17 23:31:30
QUOTE (Sadhyra @ Nov 17 2009, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Last night was night two, fyi. There was a night before the first day round.
fyi fail
check the first post, we started on night zero
Fern2009-11-17 23:43:14
Vote: Bali
C'mon, Bali. Let's hear from you. You got some 'splainin' to do.
C'mon, Bali. Let's hear from you. You got some 'splainin' to do.
Unknown2009-11-18 01:10:22
QUOTE (Llandros @ Nov 17 2009, 03:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
fyi fail
check the first post, we started on night zero
Thanks for being unnecessarily rude. I was just trying to point out that we've had two nights already. check the first post, we started on night zero
Dugan2009-11-18 02:18:55
Can we get a current vote count?
Unknown2009-11-18 02:29:56
lol wot mega train on bali much?
Dugan2009-11-18 03:01:31
No kidding. Thats why I want to see a current vote list.