Fern2009-12-02 14:58:54
QUOTE (Aerotan @ Dec 2 2009, 01:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Oddly, I'm not sure lurker is a good idea this time. If the numbers are adding up right, then last night two hands/eyes/sheets got converted (or one sheet and one cultist) And that should be the last of the non-cult conversions, but since we had two conversions last night, and not one, we've had the jokers converting every time they could, and Shandor every time he could, which should just be last night.
We've had three non-vanillas from day one. One was Ghostbuster, one has yet to be determined, and one was Xavius.
Night zero, everyone is confused, no actions
Day one, we lynched Tervic.
Night one, Xavius converts Bali, GB blasts Tekora (orb), no auto conversions.
Day two, we still have 3 non vanilla. We lynch Bali (sheet)
Night two, Xavius converts Sadhyra, GB does nothing, no auto conversions.
Day three, we lynch Xavius (Gozer the Gozerian, the Traveler, the Destructor)
Night three, there are no standard conversions, GB misfires or something, and Sadhyra becomes Vigo and gets a free conversion that night (or something)
Day four, we STILL have three non-vanilla, with Sadyra taking Xavius' place. We summarily execute her.
Night four, Sheet becomes Shandor, who cults an orb
Day five, four non vanilla.
I don't much like this explaination, since it relies heavily on Xavius not taking an action on Night 0 when he should have, and on the GB sleeping with a mystery role we haven't seen yet.
We've had three non-vanillas from day one. One was Ghostbuster, one has yet to be determined, and one was Xavius.
Night zero, everyone is confused, no actions
Day one, we lynched Tervic.
Night one, Xavius converts Bali, GB blasts Tekora (orb), no auto conversions.
Day two, we still have 3 non vanilla. We lynch Bali (sheet)
Night two, Xavius converts Sadhyra, GB does nothing, no auto conversions.
Day three, we lynch Xavius (Gozer the Gozerian, the Traveler, the Destructor)
Night three, there are no standard conversions, GB misfires or something, and Sadhyra becomes Vigo and gets a free conversion that night (or something)
Day four, we STILL have three non-vanilla, with Sadyra taking Xavius' place. We summarily execute her.
Night four, Sheet becomes Shandor, who cults an orb
Day five, four non vanilla.
I don't much like this explaination, since it relies heavily on Xavius not taking an action on Night 0 when he should have, and on the GB sleeping with a mystery role we haven't seen yet.
No. Wrong.
Our original three non-vanilla consisted of Ghostbuster, Xavius and Sadhyra.
Please fix your timeline accordingly
Shiri2009-12-02 15:31:39
Hm. Before, I'd have said it's unlikely that Sadhyra was a joker on night one because we'd have expected way more conversions than we actually got if that were the case (delayed or otherwise), and that much more likely is that Xavius made her a sheet and she converted after that.
Sadhyra's illegal after-death post is making me wonder, though...she could just not have been thinking straight, but conversely she might have meant for real that Xavius couldn't have known who she was. That doesn't explain where all those missing conversions went though. So I still don't think we can make that assumption.
Sadhyra's illegal after-death post is making me wonder, though...she could just not have been thinking straight, but conversely she might have meant for real that Xavius couldn't have known who she was. That doesn't explain where all those missing conversions went though. So I still don't think we can make that assumption.
Llandros2009-12-02 16:29:46
I never thought about it like that Shiri but you make a good point. Also, if there had actually been a lynch, nightkill and two conversions each day/night cycle the game would be over right now.
It's possible that Sadhyra converted after xenthos got lynched. The timeline makes much more sense with only one conversion per night.
However, that would mean there has been an extra non vanilla since the begining who, as far as we can tell, hasn't done anything.
It's possible that Sadhyra converted after xenthos got lynched. The timeline makes much more sense with only one conversion per night.
However, that would mean there has been an extra non vanilla since the begining who, as far as we can tell, hasn't done anything.
Daganev2009-12-02 18:38:12
Ok, going with my original theory, let me see how these numbers work out.
Night 0: Xavius, Sadhyrda. Xavius targets Sadhydra or visa versa and gets miffed, and someone becomes a ghostbuster.
day 1: 3 non-vanilla
Night 1: Xavius and Sad both create sheets.
day 2: 3 non-vanilla. a sheet gets lynched.
night 3: Xavius and Sad both convert sheets. 1 sheet converts to vanilla type role.
day 3: 3 non-vanilla- Xavius is lynched.
night 4: Sad converts a sheet. Another 2 sheet converts.
day 5: 4 non vanilla, Sad gets lynched.
Or something like that.
If Rika is going to keep insisting that we just got lucky I'm going to have to switch my vote. We didn't get lucky, Xavius told us everything we needed to know. How he knew that information is a bit odd, but he obviously knew it, and was trying to use that info to "prove himself" town.
vote rika
Night 0: Xavius, Sadhyrda. Xavius targets Sadhydra or visa versa and gets miffed, and someone becomes a ghostbuster.
day 1: 3 non-vanilla
Night 1: Xavius and Sad both create sheets.
day 2: 3 non-vanilla. a sheet gets lynched.
night 3: Xavius and Sad both convert sheets. 1 sheet converts to vanilla type role.
day 3: 3 non-vanilla- Xavius is lynched.
night 4: Sad converts a sheet. Another 2 sheet converts.
day 5: 4 non vanilla, Sad gets lynched.
Or something like that.
If Rika is going to keep insisting that we just got lucky I'm going to have to switch my vote. We didn't get lucky, Xavius told us everything we needed to know. How he knew that information is a bit odd, but he obviously knew it, and was trying to use that info to "prove himself" town.
vote rika
Shiri2009-12-02 18:59:36
Vote: Rika in case I'm not already.
Fern2009-12-02 19:30:56
QUOTE (daganev @ Dec 2 2009, 01:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ok, going with my original theory, let me see how these numbers work out.
Night 0: Xavius, Sadhyrda. Xavius targets Sadhydra or visa versa and gets miffed, and someone becomes a ghostbuster.
day 1: 3 non-vanilla
Night 1: Xavius and Sad both create sheets.
day 2: 3 non-vanilla. a sheet gets lynched.
night 3: Xavius and Sad both convert sheets. 1 sheet converts to vanilla type role.
day 3: 3 non-vanilla- Xavius is lynched.
night 4: Sad converts a sheet. Another 2 sheet converts.
day 5: 4 non vanilla, Sad gets lynched.
Or something like that.
If Rika is going to keep insisting that we just got lucky I'm going to have to switch my vote. We didn't get lucky, Xavius told us everything we needed to know. How he knew that information is a bit odd, but he obviously knew it, and was trying to use that info to "prove himself" town.
vote rika
Night 0: Xavius, Sadhyrda. Xavius targets Sadhydra or visa versa and gets miffed, and someone becomes a ghostbuster.
day 1: 3 non-vanilla
Night 1: Xavius and Sad both create sheets.
day 2: 3 non-vanilla. a sheet gets lynched.
night 3: Xavius and Sad both convert sheets. 1 sheet converts to vanilla type role.
day 3: 3 non-vanilla- Xavius is lynched.
night 4: Sad converts a sheet. Another 2 sheet converts.
day 5: 4 non vanilla, Sad gets lynched.
Or something like that.
If Rika is going to keep insisting that we just got lucky I'm going to have to switch my vote. We didn't get lucky, Xavius told us everything we needed to know. How he knew that information is a bit odd, but he obviously knew it, and was trying to use that info to "prove himself" town.
vote rika
This makes more sense to me than anything else that's been suggested so far
Aerotan2009-12-02 19:52:58
I hadn't thought of the possibility of them targetting one another. But as I don't recall any vanilla roles being mentioned in the final set of possible roles, I think it's more likely that on night 3, one targeted one of the other's sheets.
However, I do agree that Rika is being very pessimistic, if nothing else.
However, I do agree that Rika is being very pessimistic, if nothing else.
Daganev2009-12-02 20:11:39
I gues the penguin ghost only reverts others to vanilla, but itsn't vanilla themselves.
Llandros2009-12-02 20:13:38
Rika harps on how lucky we were and then Sadhyra backs up that statement.
Could be an unconscious assist to somone she converted.
Could be an unconscious assist to somone she converted.
Daganev2009-12-02 20:15:24
QUOTE (Llandros @ Dec 2 2009, 12:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Rika harps on how lucky we were and then Sadhyra backs up that statement.
Could be an unconscious assist to somone she converted.
Could be an unconscious assist to somone she converted.
good point.
Fern2009-12-02 20:18:06
No, Rika was, I believe, referring to the fact that Xavius defended Sadhyra (when I am 99% certain that they could not speak to each other, or even know who the other is) and then when he turned out to be a joker, everybody jumped on the Sadhyra train. It was a MASSIVE coincidence that she happened to be the other joker, really bad luck on her part, and bad vote-training on the town's side.
Daganev2009-12-02 21:38:03
QUOTE (Fern @ Dec 2 2009, 12:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
No, Rika was, I believe, referring to the fact that Xavius defended Sadhyra (when I am 99% certain that they could not speak to each other, or even know who the other is) and then when he turned out to be a joker, everybody jumped on the Sadhyra train. It was a MASSIVE coincidence that she happened to be the other joker, really bad luck on her part, and bad vote-training on the town's side.
If you read Xavius's posts closely it wasn't much of a coincidence.
Mirami2009-12-02 23:16:13
Vote: Rika
Personally, I think lynching Sadhyra was just luck on our part. Rika seems as good a guess as any. I don't think lurkers are really the way to go, given that this is a conversion game and converting lurkers (who are/were likely to be lynched) doesn't really make sense, from the Scum's point of view.
Personally, I think lynching Sadhyra was just luck on our part. Rika seems as good a guess as any. I don't think lurkers are really the way to go, given that this is a conversion game and converting lurkers (who are/were likely to be lynched) doesn't really make sense, from the Scum's point of view.
Fern2009-12-02 23:22:54
QUOTE (Romertien @ Dec 2 2009, 06:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Vote: Rika
Personally, I think lynching Sadhyra was just luck on our part. Rika seems as good a guess as any. I don't think lurkers are really the way to go, given that this is a conversion game and converting lurkers (who are/were likely to be lynched) doesn't really make sense, from the Scum's point of view.
Personally, I think lynching Sadhyra was just luck on our part. Rika seems as good a guess as any. I don't think lurkers are really the way to go, given that this is a conversion game and converting lurkers (who are/were likely to be lynched) doesn't really make sense, from the Scum's point of view.
Wrong
Vote: Mirami
Zenon2009-12-02 23:23:53
QUOTE (daganev @ Dec 2 2009, 10:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ok, going with my original theory, let me see how these numbers work out.
Night 0: Xavius, Sadhyrda. Xavius targets Sadhydra or visa versa and gets miffed, and someone becomes a ghostbuster.
day 1: 3 non-vanilla
Night 1: Xavius and Sad both create sheets.
day 2: 3 non-vanilla. a sheet gets lynched.
night 3: Xavius and Sad both convert sheets. 1 sheet converts to vanilla type role.
day 3: 3 non-vanilla- Xavius is lynched.
night 4: Sad converts a sheet. Another 2 sheet converts.
day 5: 4 non vanilla, Sad gets lynched.
Or something like that.
If Rika is going to keep insisting that we just got lucky I'm going to have to switch my vote. We didn't get lucky, Xavius told us everything we needed to know. How he knew that information is a bit odd, but he obviously knew it, and was trying to use that info to "prove himself" town.
vote rika
Night 0: Xavius, Sadhyrda. Xavius targets Sadhydra or visa versa and gets miffed, and someone becomes a ghostbuster.
day 1: 3 non-vanilla
Night 1: Xavius and Sad both create sheets.
day 2: 3 non-vanilla. a sheet gets lynched.
night 3: Xavius and Sad both convert sheets. 1 sheet converts to vanilla type role.
day 3: 3 non-vanilla- Xavius is lynched.
night 4: Sad converts a sheet. Another 2 sheet converts.
day 5: 4 non vanilla, Sad gets lynched.
Or something like that.
If Rika is going to keep insisting that we just got lucky I'm going to have to switch my vote. We didn't get lucky, Xavius told us everything we needed to know. How he knew that information is a bit odd, but he obviously knew it, and was trying to use that info to "prove himself" town.
vote rika
This explanation makes sense, and Rika has been acting a little odd, especially continuing to insist that we got lucky. But doesn't the latest count say we have 3 non-vanilla? It looks like this explanation would give us four non-vanilla today: the ghostbuster and three converted sheets.
Mirami2009-12-03 00:00:05
Count said 8/12 vanilla, if I remember right.
Daganev2009-12-03 00:28:08
QUOTE (casilu @ Dec 1 2009, 09:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
8/12 vanilla count.
It is now day 5. 12 alive, 7 to lynch.
It is now day 5. 12 alive, 7 to lynch.
yeah 8/12
btw, it looks like we have 4 days to find the cult before we lose. (8/12, 7/11, 6/10, 5/9)
Casilu2009-12-03 00:47:33
Tick tock.
Rika2009-12-03 01:04:59
I'm a class one vanilla. Just thought I'd get that out there so you don't have to "pressure" me for it. Have been since day one.
You cannot deny that Xavius defending Sadhyra when both were Jokers was a huge coincidence that the town got lucky on.
You cannot deny that Xavius defending Sadhyra when both were Jokers was a huge coincidence that the town got lucky on.
Fern2009-12-03 01:20:12
QUOTE (rika @ Dec 2 2009, 08:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm a class one vanilla. Just thought I'd get that out there so you don't have to "pressure" me for it. Have been since day one.
You cannot deny that Xavius defending Sadhyra when both were Jokers was a huge coincidence that the town got lucky on.
You cannot deny that Xavius defending Sadhyra when both were Jokers was a huge coincidence that the town got lucky on.
That's exactly what Daganev is saying.
For some reason, he thinks they could communicate.
