Mirami2009-11-10 14:40:39
Vote: Xavius
Zynna2009-11-10 15:29:31
QUOTE (Kiradawea @ Nov 10 2009, 08:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You know, looking through the scenario, there's a decent chance that Xavius is lying, and if he isn't, it actually tells us a lot about the setup.
First, a converted orb into the cult is still a vanilla townie. They're just being used to empower the machine, but it does not alter their status as vanilla. Knowing this, we can conclude that both jokers are out there.
Why? Well, even knowing nothing we have the implication that a joker can convert one person a night. Last lazy mod game had the joker able to convert three people at night 0. Casi admitted that she'd do it differently in this game. However, we do know something. We know that there's 3 non-vanilla out and about. There can't be only one joker, because even if he converted someone last night, we'd be up to two non-vanilla. Hence there must be a second non-vanilla from the start. Another joker whom either didn't convert someone or converted someone to a soon-to-be non-vanilla.
So, either Xavius is a jester, or he is one of the jokers. Fern has a point in that he can be bluffing. And I don't really like his quasi-threaths. Makes me think he really does have something to hide. Vote: Xavius
First, a converted orb into the cult is still a vanilla townie. They're just being used to empower the machine, but it does not alter their status as vanilla. Knowing this, we can conclude that both jokers are out there.
Why? Well, even knowing nothing we have the implication that a joker can convert one person a night. Last lazy mod game had the joker able to convert three people at night 0. Casi admitted that she'd do it differently in this game. However, we do know something. We know that there's 3 non-vanilla out and about. There can't be only one joker, because even if he converted someone last night, we'd be up to two non-vanilla. Hence there must be a second non-vanilla from the start. Another joker whom either didn't convert someone or converted someone to a soon-to-be non-vanilla.
So, either Xavius is a jester, or he is one of the jokers. Fern has a point in that he can be bluffing. And I don't really like his quasi-threaths. Makes me think he really does have something to hide. Vote: Xavius
I read the list of roles as stating that anyone who is culted does not count as vanilla. This definitely applies to the one doing the culting and, I'd assume, anyone converted by him/her:
Shandor cultist: AHHHHHHHH! AHHHHHHHHH! YOU'RE TRAPPED!!!11!!!ELEVEN! YOU WIN WITH THE CULT OF SHANDOR.
(Can only be made by Shandor and doesn't count as vanilla.)
I'm not sure why the interest in Bali from Xavius though, is that just a random target because he hasn't been as crazy as normal yet?
Kiradawea2009-11-10 15:43:20
Ack. You're right. How'd I misread that?
I still think Xavius is hiding something though, as that doesn't change too much of my initial check. All it does is increase the chance that Xavius is the cultist, assuming that we did start with the cultist.
I still think Xavius is hiding something though, as that doesn't change too much of my initial check. All it does is increase the chance that Xavius is the cultist, assuming that we did start with the cultist.
Xavius2009-11-10 16:00:32
Mine not to reason why, mine but to do and die.
Unvote: Bali. No trip to Maui!
Vote: Xavius, which rhymes with... "".
Unvote: Bali. No trip to Maui!
Vote: Xavius, which rhymes with... "".
Fern2009-11-10 17:28:01
QUOTE (Xavius @ Nov 10 2009, 11:00 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Mine not to reason why, mine but to do and die.
Unvote: Bali. No trip to Maui!
Vote: Xavius, which rhymes with... "".
Unvote: Bali. No trip to Maui!
Vote: Xavius, which rhymes with... "".
Ok, this pretty much confirms in my eyes that he is indeed Ro/Sham/or Bo. In order to keep those three from their win condition, we have to kill all three of them the same way (preferably daykill or lynch) or leave one alive.
IMHO, I don't think both the other two are going to have the obvious tell. Even if one does, the third won't, or else there is no way they could possibly win, because the town would make sure to eliminate them properly.
There is only two ways to deal with them, as I said before, and as we don't have a guarantee that we are going to end up with an investigator, we need to keep Xavius alive in order to prevent the accidental deaths of the other two contributing to the Ro/Sham/Bo win condition.
TL;DR
Don't kill Xavius just yet.
Kiradawea2009-11-10 17:38:39
Unvote: Xavius
You have a point. It's far better to get the jokers as swiftly as possible, as the longer they are around, the more we risk scum, SKer and all that jazz.
You have a point. It's far better to get the jokers as swiftly as possible, as the longer they are around, the more we risk scum, SKer and all that jazz.
Daganev2009-11-10 17:57:29
The order of the first two kills, are the only ones that matter.
If the first two die the same way, then they lose and don't win.
Since there will be roles that eventually they have to kill everyone. The longer we delay people night killing, the better off we are.
Since we know for a fact that each day somebody is going to be lynched, and we DON'T know for a fact that each night somebody will be night killed, the odds are in our favor that we kill the first two by lynching.
I'm not concerned about the numerologist screwing up, because eventually we will lynch the other ro /sham/bo person, and they know that.
If the first two die the same way, then they lose and don't win.
Since there will be roles that eventually they have to kill everyone. The longer we delay people night killing, the better off we are.
Since we know for a fact that each day somebody is going to be lynched, and we DON'T know for a fact that each night somebody will be night killed, the odds are in our favor that we kill the first two by lynching.
I'm not concerned about the numerologist screwing up, because eventually we will lynch the other ro /sham/bo person, and they know that.
Daganev2009-11-10 17:58:19
QUOTE (Kiradawea @ Nov 10 2009, 09:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You have a point. It's far better to get the jokers as swiftly as possible, as the longer they are around, the more we risk scum, SKer and all that jazz.
Any ideas of who that might be? Cause so far I just see people shooting in the dark.
Fern2009-11-10 18:00:46
QUOTE
To win, one of you has to be nightkilled, one has to be lynched, and the last can go either way.
This line says nothing about having to be done in a specific order, just that one has to be night killed, one has to be lynched, and the last can be either.
And we cannot assume she has put a specific order on it, if it's not said that way outright.
Therefore, they all have to die the same way, or one has to stay alive.
Daganev2009-11-10 18:02:38
I think you missed this line.
(Note on these three: before the last one that can go either way,
there has to be the lynch and then the NK, if the first two get lynched, it's over.)
(Note on these three: before the last one that can go either way,
there has to be the lynch and then the NK, if the first two get lynched, it's over.)
Dugan2009-11-10 18:04:19
if two get lynched and the last ends up nightkilled, they win. If one gets lynched and the other two get nightkilled, they win. One must be lynched, one must be nightkilled, the last just needs to die one way or the other.
Dugan2009-11-10 18:06:21
Sorry, just went back an re-read it ... can't go back and edit.
Dag is right.
Dag is right.
Dugan2009-11-10 18:07:16
So ... what happens then if Xavius is spared the lynched but nightkilled. Would that mess up the condition since the nightkill took place before the lynch?
Daganev2009-11-10 18:09:49
QUOTE (Dugan Diluculo @ Nov 10 2009, 10:07 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
So ... what happens then if Xavius is spared the lynched but nightkilled. Would that mess up the condition since the nightkill took place before the lynch?
don't think so, it's given as an example not the hard fast rule.
It has to go AB(A||
If it goes AA(A||
or BB(A|| they lose.Daganev2009-11-10 18:10:56
gah...
It has to go AC(A||C)
If it goes AA(A||C) or CC(A||C) they lose
(changed B to C to avoid smileys)
It has to go AC(A||C)
If it goes AA(A||C) or CC(A||C) they lose
(changed B to C to avoid smileys)
Kiradawea2009-11-10 18:12:16
No. In fact, someone might nightkill Xavius tonight (well, would if there were any nightkillers around... but who knows. Maybe you can act the same night you become a non-vanilla) to make us more careful about if we should lynch at all.
However, I see that we instead focus on someone who might be Jester. Let me just take a re-read and I'll get back to you Dag.
However, I see that we instead focus on someone who might be Jester. Let me just take a re-read and I'll get back to you Dag.
Fern2009-11-10 18:24:40
No scum would nightkill Xavius unless their head is screwed on wrong. They don't want the jesters to win anymore than the town does.
Fern2009-11-10 18:28:06
QUOTE (daganev @ Nov 10 2009, 01:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think you missed this line.
(Note on these three: before the last one that can go either way,
there has to be the lynch and then the NK, if the first two get lynched, it's over.)
(Note on these three: before the last one that can go either way,
there has to be the lynch and then the NK, if the first two get lynched, it's over.)
Yeah, I did miss that line.
Well, that changes everything.
Vote:Xavius
We could probably use a votecount annnnny time here soon, too.
Fern2009-11-10 18:31:00
Actually no,
Unvote
I stand by my reasoning that the other two probably aren't going to have the rhyme tell, and therefore will be much harder to detect, and isn't likely to step forward Day 2 to let us know he's Sham and therefore we should lynch him to kill his win condition.
Unvote
I stand by my reasoning that the other two probably aren't going to have the rhyme tell, and therefore will be much harder to detect, and isn't likely to step forward Day 2 to let us know he's Sham and therefore we should lynch him to kill his win condition.
Aerotan2009-11-10 18:43:11
Even if the other two don't have the tell, that just means that until two of the three are dead, whoever gets the nightkills will have to think twice about doing so until the second is lynched.
