Tervic2009-12-11 19:45:14
To add to Daganev, the cost for letting your investigators work is someone gets doused in gasoline and someone else gets nommed. The investigators are prime targets. That's a pretty damn steep cost. I'd rather try to find one of them today than wait it out.
@Shiri: We know Rika didn't use a targetted kill otherwise she'd have to say "Swordtech: Target".
@Shiri: We know Rika didn't use a targetted kill otherwise she'd have to say "Swordtech: Target".
Shiri2009-12-11 19:46:52
Hm, looks like you're right actually, ignore that investigation call then, I guess odds are fairly good that she's town and just timed her move badly.
Mirami2009-12-11 19:50:22
But, if we lynch a townie, then somebody still gets doused, and somebody still gets eaten. It won't change unless we get lucky...
Daganev2009-12-11 20:11:11
QUOTE (Romertien @ Dec 11 2009, 11:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
But, if we lynch a townie, then somebody still gets doused, and somebody still gets eaten. It won't change unless we get lucky...
There's nothing lucky about lynching Shiri and being down 1 scum.
Unknown2009-12-11 20:21:37
QUOTE (Romertien @ Dec 11 2009, 01:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
But, if we lynch a townie, then somebody still gets doused, and somebody still gets eaten. It won't change unless we get lucky...
And if our tracker and watcher end up looking after the wrong people, and you roll snake eyes, we're right back where we started, with one less opportunity to eliminate a scum. As always, there's a lot of chance involved.
I still think Furien is a viable vote, given that probability will never reveal anything useful, and we're almost certain to have nothing to go on besides an act of faith if we're to believe Kefka or Ultros don't wear a Mog suit.
Rika2009-12-11 20:44:41
Hey, I thought it was once in the game, during the day, too.
Well, let's hope I don't die tonight and people actually cooperate. Since that is the case, I'm going to unvote, vote: Furien. Basically what Vendetta said. I can't really see a situation where her power would help us if she is town but I can see us having to lynch her eventually just because we can't really confirm her as being innocent.
@Xavius: If I'm not voting, am I a potential target of QuadraSlice?
Well, let's hope I don't die tonight and people actually cooperate. Since that is the case, I'm going to unvote, vote: Furien. Basically what Vendetta said. I can't really see a situation where her power would help us if she is town but I can see us having to lynch her eventually just because we can't really confirm her as being innocent.
@Xavius: If I'm not voting, am I a potential target of QuadraSlice?
Daganev2009-12-11 20:59:52
If mog is scum, his scummyness can be detected by numerous methods. Just pretend we lost our investigator on night 0 and it's a normal mafia game.
Trackers, Roleblocking, scummy behavior, voting patterns, etc. All these can be used to find scum and should be used to find scum. We should not be relying on % chances for anything.
Trackers, Roleblocking, scummy behavior, voting patterns, etc. All these can be used to find scum and should be used to find scum. We should not be relying on % chances for anything.
Rika2009-12-11 21:03:07
But this isn't a "normal mafia game". The scum have a huge advantage over us because they already know who their targets are. We need to use our powers as effectively as we can. Mog, if scum, doesn't allow that to happen.
Tervic2009-12-11 21:15:23
Call me dense but... why the FoS on Furien?
Daganev2009-12-11 21:26:15
QUOTE (rika @ Dec 11 2009, 01:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
But this isn't a "normal mafia game". The scum have a huge advantage over us because they already know who their targets are. We need to use our powers as effectively as we can. Mog, if scum, doesn't allow that to happen.
I don't see how relying on chance luck can be considered an "effective" way of using our powers.
Rika2009-12-11 21:34:06
I dunno, a 75% chance of killing at least one scum (who we don't even know) is pretty effective in my books.
Daganev2009-12-11 21:43:09
QUOTE (rika @ Dec 11 2009, 01:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I dunno, a 75% chance of killing at least one scum (who we don't even know) is pretty effective in my books.
You might also kill our best powers in the meantime. Killing Solanis was quite a blow to our available tools to knock off scum.
Rika2009-12-11 21:47:14
QUOTE (daganev @ Dec 12 2009, 10:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You might also kill our best powers in the meantime. Killing Solanis was quite a blow to our available tools to knock off scum.
75% vs 23.4375% of killing at least one townie, let alone one with a good power.
Xavius2009-12-11 21:55:00
QUOTE (rika @ Dec 11 2009, 02:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
@Xavius: If I'm not voting, am I a potential target of QuadraSlice?
At this moment, no. However, stay tuned for a tweak you may not appreciate starting on day two. I haven't made a final decision yet, but I won't change the fundamental nature of your (or anyone's) power.
Rika2009-12-11 21:58:36
3 before you even announce what it is.
Furien2009-12-11 22:25:53
I'll freely admit that I'm the safest lynch, at this point. Whether or not scum decide to follow that logic is up to everyone else, though, since I'll be dead.
Daganev2009-12-12 00:18:35
QUOTE (Furien @ Dec 11 2009, 02:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'll freely admit that I'm the safest lynch, at this point. Whether or not scum decide to follow that logic is up to everyone else, though, since I'll be dead.
I've reread your post 3 times now and I'm confused.
Are you saying that scum will try to lynch you, or that lynching you as a safe bet will give scum opportunity at night?
Furien2009-12-12 00:34:46
QUOTE (daganev @ Dec 11 2009, 04:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I've reread your post 3 times now and I'm confused.
Are you saying that scum will try to lynch you, or that lynching you as a safe bet will give scum opportunity at night?
Are you saying that scum will try to lynch you, or that lynching you as a safe bet will give scum opportunity at night?
I'm saying that a scum may jump on for the ride to lynch me since it's a pretty safe bet for everyone involved. Or they may not. Hmm.
Tervic2009-12-12 01:14:50
QUOTE (daganev @ Dec 11 2009, 04:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I've reread your post 3 times now and I'm confused.
Are you saying that scum will try to lynch you, or that lynching you as a safe bet will give scum opportunity at night?
Are you saying that scum will try to lynch you, or that lynching you as a safe bet will give scum opportunity at night?
Mog eliminates the RNG. Lynching Mog is good for everyone who relies on the RNG. I think. I'm tired
Diamondais2009-12-12 01:28:30
Been at work all day, now need to work on finals so I can actually pass my semester. I'll be checking back in a few hours when I'm done, sorry guys!