I am sorry for this obnoxiously long post 
Which means that I have two people I'm suspicious of... Either Phoebus, who has admittedly been acting a bit odd, and was going to be targetted by the inside man, or Feyrll, who also have had her (very) odd moments.
So, in closing: Vote: Feyrll
I was pretty much expecting this, and I'll do my best to reply. Over the course of the holidays weeks though, I'm kind of fuzzy on what cunning insight I had pulled from my pouring over the past posts, but whatever.
1) I'm also frustrated at Solanis not revealing who the other DE's were. Possibly this means that he did not know who they were, meaning Trinit in fact did not tell his DEs who was on their team. In that case, my analysis, which was based on the assumption that DE would not argue with each other, has serious holes. It'd be only safe in assuming that the DE all knew who V-daddy was, so I still say Gleip is not DE. Maybe dementor, whatever, but not DE. Trinit was just too harsh on him for any main boss to be on an underling, even in shifting blame. This in my opinion, is the most valid point brought up by Ssaliss, and should be seriously considered in critiquing my viewpoints.
2) It actually is a weird coincidence that everyone I voted for ended up dead the next day. I'd like to say "good ol' kiss of death!" except for the fact that, well, two out of the three were innocent fellas. First vote was an unfortunate fixation on Vendetta's suspicious reveal. Second vote, regarding Jack, I'll actually combine with point 5 in addressing: I was insecure over my Vendetta flop, because I was so gosh darn sure about him. In the Trinit vs Solanis debate, when both raised the stakes for listing to either of them, I didn't want it on my conscience if the lynch vote went the wrong way. So I voted for Jack, the least-damage choice and also because of course nobody was actually going to vote on him enough to lynch him. As the deadline neared, Trinit's repeated posting ticked off a "hmm, he sounds too desperate to stay alive" sort of ding, but I didn't want to one to tack on that final vote that would've pushed the no lynch to a lynch. So When Allecto agreed, I was like OH MAN HURRY MAKE THE DECISION FOR ME. Luckily, Casilu did. But yea, the second vote for Jack was basically just me being a big wuss. Why Jack died that night, search me, it was a waste of a hit imho.
As for the vote for Caerulo, I mean, come on, the guy was just way too obvious. I was like 80% sure he was DE and in the spirit of Solanis' super confidence, I just threw it out there. Yes, Ssaliss did vote Caerulo, but I stand by my interpretation of Ssaliss having waited until the last minute to tack on his vote. Ssaliss defends himself by saying the situation didn't change when he voted, so he wasn't pressured. Quote: "the circumstances were identical when I gave him the time limit and when I voted for him." That's exactly the point, there was no change in situation, ideally maybe Caerulo could've said something that caused other people to start believing him, and you can join in on the bandwagon without blatantly siding with Caerulo. But the situation stayed the same, the evidence was compelling, and if you didn't make a stand to separate yourself from Caerulo, when he went down, people were going to wonder why you didn't vote for him. Yea, maybe you were being a really fair guy, but...let's just say I found Caerulo's last-minute-no-lynch vote so suspicious that purely out of how bad that Caerulo's timing was, I would've voted for him, so people who didn't are on my watchlist.
3) If I was DE and if I didn't know Caerulo was DE, his last minute vote for Trinit would've tipped me off big time and I wouldn't have been the first to point the big finger of vote on him. That's not smart, because it's too much of a gamble to think that leading one witch-hunt will get everyone to trust you eternally. A single DE is way vulnerable, if I was DE, I'd never have made that move.
4) She was investigator. Who doesn't mourn the loss of that FIRST THING in the game. I was just too newb to realize we weren't supposed to mourn the dead.
Moving onto more general things, Ssaliss also made a point of how I accused him of being 'supportive of Gleip' at odd times and he goes, "No, I wasn't, I even voted for him' and etc. Actually when I said "supportive", I meant "supportive of the notion that he was guilty". It just seemed timely the way he fell back on the "maybe gleip is suspicious" train when Trinit or Caerulo was under fire. (Or did he? I don't know, don't have the energy to find the exact sequence but I'll assume it was something like that).
I do concede that, perhaps, if Ssaliss was truly DE, he'd have pushed more for Solanis during the big Trinit vs Solanis face off. Maybe it was the fact that nobody besides Caerulo was really speaking up for Trinit so it'd be suspicious for him to join in. Maybe it's because Ssaliss actually used my confusion over Trinit's blocking role to sneak in his subtle defense of Trinit. Yes Ssaliss I know you're worked up about me accusing you of defending Trinit as doctor, but o sneak in some defense of Trinit by explaining that possibly, Trinit could be a valid role blocker, or a doctor, but let's look at it:
Me: Wtf, that's an awfully lot of roleblockers give the number of people playing.
Ssaliss: Trinit is more of a doctor than a roleblocker. According to his claim, he targets someone, and if they're targetted during the night they don't die, but if he targets a Death Eater he can't do anything next day.
Me: He says he only heals them if they are on his team, and, that if he helps DE, he gets knocked out for a day. I'm not saying that's impossible, since it makes the game more realistic, but I wonder if we're supposed to have a doctor that isn't active every day.
Ssaliss: He's a bodyguard in the books, so the role of doctor is actually rather apt. He protects those that would otherwise be killed.
Me: Yea, but again, he's only active every other night, whether or not he accidentally tries to 'heal' a DE.
Ssaliss: Well, his exact words were:
QUOTE (Trinit @ Dec 16 2010, 08:23 PM) *
Except for the fact that I didn't actually do anything last night, so whoever blocked me, blocked me standing around. I can only use it every other night to target two people. If I target a certain person, they don't die if they were going to. However, if either of the people was a DE , I'm knocked out cold and I can't post the next day.
Which could be taken as "he's only able to protect a single person". If that's the case, then only being able to do so every other day kinda makes sense.
Yes, it's true, the above can be seen as Ssaliss just "pointing out your mistakes in your post when you claimed he was a roleblocker, and later your arguments that he didn't make sense as a doctor". But even if he's not outright going DON'T VOTE FOR TRINIT HE's DOCTOR, it seems like a pretty convenient way to open up the very powerful idea that Trinit was doctor, which could have significant impact on whether people want to vote for Trinit or not. Which is why I find it suspicious. Plus you voted for Gleip that night. You said that vote was "my way of saying I wasn't getting in the middle of Solanis and Trinit" but given how it definitely kept the possibility of whether Trinit not getting lynched in play, I'd say that's getting in the middle of things.
My wishy-washy statement refers more to my impression of Ssaliss's participation style, especially now where you seem more focused on getting my vote off you than the actual progress of the townie mission. Maybe I am wrong about you, but you could've responded with a clear "No, this is the direction you should be looking" instead of presenting a few scraps of suspicious points about a few different people like a ninja smoke bomb. Then trying to build a case against me, but keeping the Phoebus flame alive...well, I'll stop because I tend to think too much into things.
Am I swayed by Ssaliss' claims of innocence? Yes, a little more than I thought I would be. Could I be wrong? Hell yea I could, and I'll look like a huge ass too, but...uh...if there's only one DE left...one townie lynching isn't fatal right....
The notion of the last DE having every-other day kills is not half bad. Will have to think about.
QUOTE (Ssaliss @ Jan 2 2011, 07:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
- Solanis aiming at both Trinit and Caerulo, and both turned out scum. He also said Phoebus was next on his list.
- My problems with this is that one: It doesn't seem as if he actually knew who the rest of the Death Eaters were. Caerulo was rather easy to spot, after all. If he knew who the others were, I would hope that he had said that. Or, it could be that was his way of saying that.
- Could just be a coincidence, of course, but it looks odd to me.
If we extrapolate from my thoughts about Solanis and make the assumption that she's a Death Eater (no, I'm not saying she is; this is purely a "what if" situation), it might mean that she didn't actually know who the rest of the Death Eaters were. Considering all their communications apparently went through Trinit, we have no way of knowing what he told the rest of them.
She also made the odd remark about how we could've used Rika right after she died, as well as her post which only brought up half the story (at least in my case, I don't know what the rest of you think).
One of her posts during the Trinit/Solanis discussion also struck me as odd; she said "SO REALLY FAST, DECIDE WHO TO BACK", while she herself voted for Jack because he was inactive. Huh?
Everyone Feyrll has been voting for has ended up dead. On day 1, she voted for Vendetta, he ended up lynched. On day 2, she voted for Jack, who was nightkilled on night 2. On day 3, she voted for Caerulo, who ended up lynched.
Which means that I have two people I'm suspicious of... Either Phoebus, who has admittedly been acting a bit odd, and was going to be targetted by the inside man, or Feyrll, who also have had her (very) odd moments.
So, in closing: Vote: Feyrll
I was pretty much expecting this, and I'll do my best to reply. Over the course of the holidays weeks though, I'm kind of fuzzy on what cunning insight I had pulled from my pouring over the past posts, but whatever.
1) I'm also frustrated at Solanis not revealing who the other DE's were. Possibly this means that he did not know who they were, meaning Trinit in fact did not tell his DEs who was on their team. In that case, my analysis, which was based on the assumption that DE would not argue with each other, has serious holes. It'd be only safe in assuming that the DE all knew who V-daddy was, so I still say Gleip is not DE. Maybe dementor, whatever, but not DE. Trinit was just too harsh on him for any main boss to be on an underling, even in shifting blame. This in my opinion, is the most valid point brought up by Ssaliss, and should be seriously considered in critiquing my viewpoints.
2) It actually is a weird coincidence that everyone I voted for ended up dead the next day. I'd like to say "good ol' kiss of death!" except for the fact that, well, two out of the three were innocent fellas. First vote was an unfortunate fixation on Vendetta's suspicious reveal. Second vote, regarding Jack, I'll actually combine with point 5 in addressing: I was insecure over my Vendetta flop, because I was so gosh darn sure about him. In the Trinit vs Solanis debate, when both raised the stakes for listing to either of them, I didn't want it on my conscience if the lynch vote went the wrong way. So I voted for Jack, the least-damage choice and also because of course nobody was actually going to vote on him enough to lynch him. As the deadline neared, Trinit's repeated posting ticked off a "hmm, he sounds too desperate to stay alive" sort of ding, but I didn't want to one to tack on that final vote that would've pushed the no lynch to a lynch. So When Allecto agreed, I was like OH MAN HURRY MAKE THE DECISION FOR ME. Luckily, Casilu did. But yea, the second vote for Jack was basically just me being a big wuss. Why Jack died that night, search me, it was a waste of a hit imho.
As for the vote for Caerulo, I mean, come on, the guy was just way too obvious. I was like 80% sure he was DE and in the spirit of Solanis' super confidence, I just threw it out there. Yes, Ssaliss did vote Caerulo, but I stand by my interpretation of Ssaliss having waited until the last minute to tack on his vote. Ssaliss defends himself by saying the situation didn't change when he voted, so he wasn't pressured. Quote: "the circumstances were identical when I gave him the time limit and when I voted for him." That's exactly the point, there was no change in situation, ideally maybe Caerulo could've said something that caused other people to start believing him, and you can join in on the bandwagon without blatantly siding with Caerulo. But the situation stayed the same, the evidence was compelling, and if you didn't make a stand to separate yourself from Caerulo, when he went down, people were going to wonder why you didn't vote for him. Yea, maybe you were being a really fair guy, but...let's just say I found Caerulo's last-minute-no-lynch vote so suspicious that purely out of how bad that Caerulo's timing was, I would've voted for him, so people who didn't are on my watchlist.
3) If I was DE and if I didn't know Caerulo was DE, his last minute vote for Trinit would've tipped me off big time and I wouldn't have been the first to point the big finger of vote on him. That's not smart, because it's too much of a gamble to think that leading one witch-hunt will get everyone to trust you eternally. A single DE is way vulnerable, if I was DE, I'd never have made that move.
4) She was investigator. Who doesn't mourn the loss of that FIRST THING in the game. I was just too newb to realize we weren't supposed to mourn the dead.
Moving onto more general things, Ssaliss also made a point of how I accused him of being 'supportive of Gleip' at odd times and he goes, "No, I wasn't, I even voted for him' and etc. Actually when I said "supportive", I meant "supportive of the notion that he was guilty". It just seemed timely the way he fell back on the "maybe gleip is suspicious" train when Trinit or Caerulo was under fire. (Or did he? I don't know, don't have the energy to find the exact sequence but I'll assume it was something like that).
I do concede that, perhaps, if Ssaliss was truly DE, he'd have pushed more for Solanis during the big Trinit vs Solanis face off. Maybe it was the fact that nobody besides Caerulo was really speaking up for Trinit so it'd be suspicious for him to join in. Maybe it's because Ssaliss actually used my confusion over Trinit's blocking role to sneak in his subtle defense of Trinit. Yes Ssaliss I know you're worked up about me accusing you of defending Trinit as doctor, but o sneak in some defense of Trinit by explaining that possibly, Trinit could be a valid role blocker, or a doctor, but let's look at it:
Me: Wtf, that's an awfully lot of roleblockers give the number of people playing.
Ssaliss: Trinit is more of a doctor than a roleblocker. According to his claim, he targets someone, and if they're targetted during the night they don't die, but if he targets a Death Eater he can't do anything next day.
Me: He says he only heals them if they are on his team, and, that if he helps DE, he gets knocked out for a day. I'm not saying that's impossible, since it makes the game more realistic, but I wonder if we're supposed to have a doctor that isn't active every day.
Ssaliss: He's a bodyguard in the books, so the role of doctor is actually rather apt. He protects those that would otherwise be killed.
Me: Yea, but again, he's only active every other night, whether or not he accidentally tries to 'heal' a DE.
Ssaliss: Well, his exact words were:
QUOTE (Trinit @ Dec 16 2010, 08:23 PM) *
Except for the fact that I didn't actually do anything last night, so whoever blocked me, blocked me standing around. I can only use it every other night to target two people. If I target a certain person, they don't die if they were going to. However, if either of the people was a DE , I'm knocked out cold and I can't post the next day.
Which could be taken as "he's only able to protect a single person". If that's the case, then only being able to do so every other day kinda makes sense.
Yes, it's true, the above can be seen as Ssaliss just "pointing out your mistakes in your post when you claimed he was a roleblocker, and later your arguments that he didn't make sense as a doctor". But even if he's not outright going DON'T VOTE FOR TRINIT HE's DOCTOR, it seems like a pretty convenient way to open up the very powerful idea that Trinit was doctor, which could have significant impact on whether people want to vote for Trinit or not. Which is why I find it suspicious. Plus you voted for Gleip that night. You said that vote was "my way of saying I wasn't getting in the middle of Solanis and Trinit" but given how it definitely kept the possibility of whether Trinit not getting lynched in play, I'd say that's getting in the middle of things.
My wishy-washy statement refers more to my impression of Ssaliss's participation style, especially now where you seem more focused on getting my vote off you than the actual progress of the townie mission. Maybe I am wrong about you, but you could've responded with a clear "No, this is the direction you should be looking" instead of presenting a few scraps of suspicious points about a few different people like a ninja smoke bomb. Then trying to build a case against me, but keeping the Phoebus flame alive...well, I'll stop because I tend to think too much into things.
Am I swayed by Ssaliss' claims of innocence? Yes, a little more than I thought I would be. Could I be wrong? Hell yea I could, and I'll look like a huge ass too, but...uh...if there's only one DE left...one townie lynching isn't fatal right....
The notion of the last DE having every-other day kills is not half bad. Will have to think about.
I'm kind of at a loss, really. It's an interesting point that maybe kills can only happen on certain nights. That might merit more investigation, but I'm not entirely convinced.
Don't the scum groups kill as a group? If Trinit had a nightkill, to me that says the DEs could kill twice a night as long has he's around. Now that there's one DE, whether or not nightkilling is part of their role, they'll still kill, right? Because he/she is all that's left of the group? I thought that was how scum groups in mafia work, but maybe not, for this setup.
As far as defending myself against suspicion, and also putting more information out there, I'm tempted to roleclaim. Is this a good idea? This late in the game, it seems like the risk would be less, and could give us something concrete to talk about.
Also, is there anyway to look at all the posts made by one person? That would really help me out, in looking at one person at a time.
QUOTE (Ssaliss @ Jan 3 2011, 09:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
At the time, Solanis was crusading against Trinit, so that might be why it's been overlooked. Also, among the three DE that has been killed (or two, if you don't count Snape), Trinit was the only one with a nightkill. Snape had no powers at all from what I could gather, and Gibbon could turn day into night once. Still, someone died during night 2 and 3 after Trinit was lynched. Could be a sign that the DE can only collectively kill someone during odd nights and our mystery group can kill during even nights? If so, Lilia is looking mighty suspicious...
Don't the scum groups kill as a group? If Trinit had a nightkill, to me that says the DEs could kill twice a night as long has he's around. Now that there's one DE, whether or not nightkilling is part of their role, they'll still kill, right? Because he/she is all that's left of the group? I thought that was how scum groups in mafia work, but maybe not, for this setup.
As far as defending myself against suspicion, and also putting more information out there, I'm tempted to roleclaim. Is this a good idea? This late in the game, it seems like the risk would be less, and could give us something concrete to talk about.
Also, is there anyway to look at all the posts made by one person? That would really help me out, in looking at one person at a time.
QUOTE (Lilia @ Jan 5 2011, 12:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Don't the scum groups kill as a group? If Trinit had a nightkill, to me that says the DEs could kill twice a night as long has he's around. Now that there's one DE, whether or not nightkilling is part of their role, they'll still kill, right? Because he/she is all that's left of the group? I thought that was how scum groups in mafia work, but maybe not, for this setup.
I'm not sure, since I've never been scum, but it seems to vary from game to game. For instance, in Casilus last game, each of the cards had their own nightkill. This doesn't seem to be the case this round though, since only one of the two DEs killed this round had a nightkill (or one of three, if you see Snape as a DE). And since I only have two completed games under my belt, I still can't quite grasp all the general scum-powers.
