Dugan2009-03-29 16:18:16
Here we seem to go again. Why the vote Dag?
Tekora2009-03-29 16:30:35
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 29 2009, 11:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
@Tekora: I see Shamarah as either haveing a 20% chance to be the last scum, or end the game. But that is true with just about anybody. Because we just arn't sure how many abnormals there are. The 5 number from renthur is quite possible.
Where'd you get that number? Is that just a level of suspicion? Because I didn't just pull my 50%/100% chance of Shamarah being the last scum out of my arse.
QUOTE (Tekora @ Mar 28 2009, 06:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Possible current situations
----------------------
#1 - 3 conversions on Night Zero
Night 0 - 3 conversions (Jack, Silferras, Shamarah)
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Unknown person converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
----------------------
#2 - 2 people converted on Night 0
Night 0 - 2 people converted (Jack, Silferras)
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Shamarah converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
----------------------
#3 - Four or more people converted on Night 0
Night 0 - Four (or more) people converted (Jack, Silferras, Shamarah,
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Unknown person converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
----------------------
This is a list of all the possible current scenarios, in one of them, Shamarah is the only remaining abnormal, and in two, he's one of the remaining abnormals.
----------------------
#1 - 3 conversions on Night Zero
Night 0 - 3 conversions (Jack, Silferras, Shamarah)
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Unknown person converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
----------------------
#2 - 2 people converted on Night 0
Night 0 - 2 people converted (Jack, Silferras)
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Shamarah converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
----------------------
#3 - Four or more people converted on Night 0
Night 0 - Four (or more) people converted (Jack, Silferras, Shamarah,
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Unknown person converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
----------------------
This is a list of all the possible current scenarios, in one of them, Shamarah is the only remaining abnormal, and in two, he's one of the remaining abnormals.
In all, there are 5 current possible situations we could be in, the above 3, and the 2 I outlined for the cult problem.
In #1, Shamarah has a 50% chance of being scum. In #2, Shamarah is the last remaining abnormal, and thus, the last scum. In #3, his chance drops to 33% or below. In Cult #1, Shamarah has a 100% chance of being the cultist leader, based upon a 3-person conversion by the Joker on Night 0. In Cult #2, Shamarah has a 100% chance of being cultist and a 50% chance of being cult leader.
All of you need to slow down, read all that I've posted, and work out the math for yourselves. It's all right there in front of you, clear as day.
Daganev2009-03-29 16:30:52
QUOTE (Dugan Diluculo @ Mar 29 2009, 09:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Here we seem to go again. Why the vote Dag?
I explained earlier why the vote. What I'm interested now is evidence to the contrary. I guess in the meantime, I'll try to mine the thread and find the posts I find worrysome, and hopefully by the time I post the full argument some evidence to the contrary will appear and I'll look for someone else to vote for, or we will have arguments which can be discussed and go from there.
Dugan2009-03-29 16:33:47
yeah, I remember ... voting pattern I believe. Thats what confuses me a bit.
Daganev2009-03-29 16:39:03
QUOTE (Tekora @ Mar 29 2009, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Where'd you get that number? Is that just a level of suspicion? Because I didn't just pull my 50%/100% chance of Shamarah being the last scum out of my arse.
In all, there are 5 current possible situations we could be in, the above 3, and the 2 I outlined for the cult problem.
In #1, Shamarah has a 50% chance of being scum. In #2, Shamarah is the last remaining abnormal, and thus, the last scum. In #3, his chance drops to 33% or below. In Cult #1, Shamarah has a 100% chance of being the cultist leader, based upon a 3-person conversion by the Joker on Night 0. In Cult #2, Shamarah has a 100% chance of being cultist and a 50% chance of being cult leader.
All of you need to slow down, read all that I've posted, and work out the math for yourselves. It's all right there in front of you, clear as day.
In all, there are 5 current possible situations we could be in, the above 3, and the 2 I outlined for the cult problem.
In #1, Shamarah has a 50% chance of being scum. In #2, Shamarah is the last remaining abnormal, and thus, the last scum. In #3, his chance drops to 33% or below. In Cult #1, Shamarah has a 100% chance of being the cultist leader, based upon a 3-person conversion by the Joker on Night 0. In Cult #2, Shamarah has a 100% chance of being cultist and a 50% chance of being cult leader.
All of you need to slow down, read all that I've posted, and work out the math for yourselves. It's all right there in front of you, clear as day.
I think your math is a bit off.
There are many more secnarios than you mentioned.
In addition to the 5 you said, you have the possiblity that 5 people were converted night 0, and shamarah is one of the innocent people. If we assume that only 1 person of those 5 was made scum, then we have a 20% of shamarah being one of them. I guess since 2 are dead, the percentage goes up to 66% (something tells me that isn't correct, but it might be) it's still not 50% So where do you get the 50% number from?
Tekora2009-03-29 16:50:26
QUOTE
#1 - 3 conversions on Night Zero
Night 0 - 3 conversions (Jack, Silferras, Shamarah)
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Unknown person converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
Night 0 - 3 conversions (Jack, Silferras, Shamarah)
Day 1 - Jack and Silferras die
Night 1 - Unknown person converted
Day 2 - Shiri dies
Night 2 - ???
Day 3 - Current
The 50% scenario assumes that there were 3 conversions on Night 0. Read the entire post, Daganev.
Shamarah2009-03-29 16:52:54
As I've already explained, lynching me on that premise is faulty logic. Since killing me doesn't help narrow down a list, it doesn't help along any process of elimination. And remember that a cult isn't like a normal scum group; the longer we take to kill the cult, the bigger it gets. We can't afford to waste lynches on people who aren't actually scummy.
Daganev2009-03-29 16:53:00
QUOTE (Tekora @ Mar 29 2009, 09:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The 50% scenario assumes that there were 3 conversions on Night 0. Read the entire post, Daganev.
Ok, well that's just a bad assumption. Why would we make that assumption?
Tekora2009-03-29 16:54:19
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 29 2009, 11:53 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ok, well that's just a bad assumption. Why would we make that assumption?
I didn't say it was a perfect assumption, nor that it's what exactly happened. That's why I provided the four other scenarios.
Daganev2009-03-29 16:55:07
QUOTE (Shamarah @ Mar 29 2009, 09:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
As I've already explained, lynching me on that premise is faulty logic. Since killing me doesn't help narrow down a list, it doesn't help along any process of elimination. And remember that a cult isn't like a normal scum group; the longer we take to kill the cult, the bigger it gets. We can't afford to waste lynches on people who aren't actually scummy.
Yeah ok... well I looked back over the posts and my assumptions about Dugan was wrong. Dugan only voted number 3 for Shamarah (some reason I thought he voted 3 for shiri also)
so I'm going to unvote
and Vote Tekora because of his insistence of numbers that aren't accurate.
Tekora2009-03-29 16:55:55
QUOTE (Shamarah @ Mar 29 2009, 11:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
As I've already explained, lynching me on that premise is faulty logic. Since killing me doesn't help narrow down a list, it doesn't help along any process of elimination. And remember that a cult isn't like a normal scum group; the longer we take to kill the cult, the bigger it gets. We can't afford to waste lynches on people who aren't actually scummy.
It DOES narrow down a list, it narrows down the list of known abnormals, which currently only includes you.
Daganev2009-03-29 16:56:41
QUOTE (Tekora @ Mar 29 2009, 09:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I didn't say it was a perfect assumption, nor that it's what exactly happened. That's why I provided the four other scenarios.
Ok, but you said it's either 50% or 100% ... and I while I understand the 100% it's a long shot, and not really 100% just a statement that says "if shamarah is scum then he is scum" but that statement is meaningless. We could easily say "if Tekora is scum then he is scum" and there is a chance that we have 100% chance of tekora being scum. (which I guess we do?)
Daganev2009-03-29 16:57:46
QUOTE (Tekora @ Mar 29 2009, 09:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It DOES narrow down a list, it narrows down the list of known abnormals, which currently only includes you.
Therefore it doens't narrow down a list, because there is no list of known abnormals, only shamarah. If we lynch you and we are wrong, about you then I guess we'll lynch shamarah tomorow.
Tekora2009-03-29 16:59:24
QUOTE (daganev @ Mar 29 2009, 11:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Therefore it doens't narrow down a list, because there is no list of known abnormals, only shamarah. If we lynch you and we are wrong, about you then I guess we'll lynch shamarah tomorow.
Fine. I'll take that offer.
Unvote
Vote: Tekora
Daganev2009-03-29 17:01:39
Ok, I think that is 5/6 votes for Tekora??
Tekora2009-03-29 17:08:47
One last word. When the lynch goes through and I'm shown to be vanilla, I want someone to repost the five scenarios I've summarized, updated to reflect the events of today and tonight.
They're your best chance at actually having people make decisions on their own instead of just blindly following Daganev or Shamarah or some other leader.
They're your best chance at actually having people make decisions on their own instead of just blindly following Daganev or Shamarah or some other leader.
Dugan2009-03-29 17:17:37
Can you vote for yourself? I have never seen that done ....
Fania2009-03-29 17:18:45
QUOTE (Dugan Diluculo @ Mar 29 2009, 10:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can you vote for yourself? I have never seen that done ....
I voted for myself in the Mario game.
Fania2009-03-29 17:27:56
Since Tekora voted for himself, I'm worried that he would win based
Fania2009-03-29 17:32:07
Well I didn't mean to send the above post at all, but I might as well finish my thought. Since there is the chance of Tekora winning when he gets voted out I'm not completely convinced that he's scum. Also I don't think his assumptions are that far off. I keep getting distracted so it'll be a little while before I make a decision.
