Jack2009-03-23 04:06:00
Let's not blow this out of proportion
Fania2009-03-23 04:06:03
And if you blow someone up when you die, then maybe you blow someone up while you are still alive. So either way you will kill someone before day two, but this way we know you will die.
Jack2009-03-23 04:07:43
Afraid not. I have one bomb which is strapped to me. I die, it goes boom. (This is the last time I say this, by the way, since some of you seriously lack reading comprehension as far as I can tell.) Also, I'm unvoting for the time being until someone arouses my suspicion. Lurkers, get your asses into plain sight!
Unknown2009-03-23 04:10:06
QUOTE (Jack @ Mar 23 2009, 12:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Afraid not. I have one bomb which is strapped to me. I die, it goes boom. (This is the last time I say this, by the way, since some of you seriously lack reading comprehension as far as I can tell.) Also, I'm unvoting for the time being until someone arouses my suspicion. Lurkers, get your asses into plain sight!
It's not that they don't understand you. It's more like they don't trust that you are saying the truth, or the complete truth.
Unknown2009-03-23 04:15:43
Personally, I'm somewhat convinced (something like 55-60%) that Jack is pro-town. I don't get any scum vibes from him so far, other than the early claim.
Shiri2009-03-23 04:28:50
QUOTE (Caerulo @ Mar 23 2009, 04:15 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Personally, I'm somewhat convinced (something like 55-60%) that Jack is pro-town. I don't get any scum vibes from him so far, other than the early claim.
The claim is important, though. It's also not like we have a lot to go off.
kiriwe2009-03-23 04:48:49
I'm going to chime in here, and say that we should be looking at non-voters for joker tells atm, since the joker wins when there are no vanillas left.
Unknown2009-03-23 05:07:09
I don't follow your logic there, Kiriwe. It would be to the Joker's advantage to eliminate as many townies as possible so that he wouldn't have to convert them all. At our current numbers, given that the Joker can convert one person per night (and not even at 100% certainty, per Casilu's post in the signups), it would take an inordinate amount of nights for him to win. Why are we looking at non-voters, again?
Unknown2009-03-23 05:12:52
QUOTE (Kiriwe y'Kaliath @ Mar 23 2009, 12:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm going to chime in here, and say that we should be looking at non-voters for joker tells atm, since the joker wins when there are no vanillas left.
At this point, that would be Reiha, Shaddus, Renthur and Shaddus.
@Shiri: True. Although, he has been fairly consistent about it, and there isn't any way for us to get more information from him. Lynching him would be 50-50, because no way a vanilla townie would pull something like that, so it means that he either is a anti-town role, or really a bomber.
Shiri2009-03-23 05:14:20
QUOTE (Silferras @ Mar 23 2009, 05:07 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't follow your logic there, Kiriwe. It would be to the Joker's advantage to eliminate as many townies as possible so that he wouldn't have to convert them all. At our current numbers, given that the Joker can convert one person per night (and not even at 100% certainty, per Casilu's post in the signups), it would take an inordinate amount of nights for him to win.
But Jack is clearly not a townie in any sense the joker cares about. The joker wants the abnormals to survive as long as possible and the vanillas to die.
QUOTE
Why are we looking at non-voters, again?
Because the joker wants to keep him alive due to his being abnormal. So anyone hiding, in addition to all the normal issues with lurkers, has the possibility of avoiding killing abnormals. We seem to have more than 1 lurker and there's only one scum + Jack atm, but we can at least help narrow it down by looking at that.
Shiri2009-03-23 05:16:51
P.S the reason I'm not voting for him is that I still like my "make the person we would otherwise lynch, kill Jack, because then we either slow down the joker winning (1/3 options) or kill a scum (2/3 options)" plan. Well, it's not quite as clean as that in case we would lynch a vanilla, but we always run that risk so it seems worth it anyway.
Unknown2009-03-23 05:17:06
QUOTE (Shiri @ Mar 23 2009, 01:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
But Jack is clearly not a townie in any sense the joker cares about. The joker wants the abnormals to survive as long as possible and the vanillas to die.
Not true in this case. If the bomber kills off a vanilla, that's one less for him to convert.
Unknown2009-03-23 05:18:57
QUOTE (Shiri @ Mar 23 2009, 01:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
P.S the reason I'm not voting for him is that I still like my "make the person we would otherwise lynch, kill Jack, because then we either slow down the joker winning (1/3 options) or kill a scum (2/3 options)" plan. Well, it's not quite as clean as that in case we would lynch a vanilla, but we always run that risk so it seems worth it anyway.
I'm just curious how you are going to pull it off unless the lynch-ee is a townie. If it was the Joker or some other converted person, if they were going to die anyway, why die helping the townies?
Shiri2009-03-23 05:20:44
QUOTE (Caerulo @ Mar 23 2009, 05:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Not true in this case. If the bomber kills off a vanilla, that's one less for him to convert.
It's still true. It isn't a TOTAL loss, but it's like how trading scum 1 for 1 with townies is a bad move. The joker only has 2 people "on his side" out of 17 right now. If the bomber is lynched that drops to 1/15 which proportionally is even lower. The night after, he has 2/15 instead of 3/16 if they lynched a vanilla, also worse odds for him.
It seems to me that his priority is to get as many scum converted as he can before he dies in this game, since he's likely to get lynched as there's only 1 of him and we'll figure it out eventually. He's not just out to whittle down the town's numbers like a normal mafia.
Fania2009-03-23 05:21:05
QUOTE (Silferras @ Mar 22 2009, 10:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't follow your logic there, Kiriwe. It would be to the Joker's advantage to eliminate as many townies as possible so that he wouldn't have to convert them all. At our current numbers, given that the Joker can convert one person per night (and not even at 100% certainty, per Casilu's post in the signups), it would take an inordinate amount of nights for him to win. Why are we looking at non-voters, again?
I think it's more the lurkers who haven't said anything that we should be worried about (which could be seen as the non-voters too). All we can go on right now is by the people who have posted. At this point I'm not convinced that anyone is the joker, yet. Until we get an investigator we can't know for sure about Jack. We just know his claim which isn't a known fact. It doesn't help his case that he is insulting people left and right.
Unknown2009-03-23 05:23:12
It's a fair point about the lurkers, but at this stage, I think what we've established is that as vanilla townies, we want to kill off the abnormals. At the same time, it's not feasible to ask a lynch target to finish Jack off, because if they really are the Joker, what are the chances that they will? Only townies would be willing to make the sacrifice.
Shiri2009-03-23 05:25:40
QUOTE (Caerulo @ Mar 23 2009, 05:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm just curious how you are going to pull it off unless the lynch-ee is a townie. If it was the Joker or some other converted person, if they were going to die anyway, why die helping the townies?
I already explained this. If they refuse to do it for that reason we can just kill them anyway.
It ends up looking like this.
A) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla cooperates. We lose one abnormal and one normal. A decent trade for day 1.
Jack is telling the truth, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla doesn't cooperate. We lose a vanilla but it's their own fault.
C) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch the joker, joker cooperates. Not going to happen.
D) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch the joker, joker doesn't cooperate. We kill the joker. Sweet.
E) Jack is lying, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla cooperates. We lose no townie and kill an SK/joker/mafia/cultist/something! Sweet.
F) Jack is lying, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla doesn't cooperate. We lose a vanilla but it's their own fault.
G) Jack is lying, we lynch the joker, joker cooperates. We miss out on killing the joker, but we do get an SK/whatever, so good deal.
H) Jack is lying, we lynch the joker, joker doesn't cooperate. We kill the joker. Also great! And then we can get Jack tomorrow.
I'm not seeing a bunch of negative outcomes here. Am I missing something?
Unknown2009-03-23 05:27:04
QUOTE (Shiri @ Mar 23 2009, 01:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It's still true. It isn't a TOTAL loss, but it's like how trading scum 1 for 1 with townies is a bad move. The joker only has 2 people "on his side" out of 17 right now. If the bomber is lynched that drops to 1/15 which proportionally is even lower. The night after, he has 2/15 instead of 3/16 if they lynched a vanilla, also worse odds for him.
It seems to me that his priority is to get as many scum converted as he can before he dies in this game, since he's likely to get lynched as there's only 1 of him and we'll figure it out eventually. He's not just out to whittle down the town's numbers like a normal mafia.
It seems to me that his priority is to get as many scum converted as he can before he dies in this game, since he's likely to get lynched as there's only 1 of him and we'll figure it out eventually. He's not just out to whittle down the town's numbers like a normal mafia.
Actually, I don't think it works that way. You seem to be treating the Joker as a cult-leader, but I don't think the abnormals even know who the Joker is, let alone side with him.
Also, I think the Joker's priority is to get as many people non-vanilla, not necessarily scum. A vigilante would be as useful as a SK to the Joker. He doesn't win with the scum, I believe.
Unknown2009-03-23 05:29:30
QUOTE (Shiri @ Mar 23 2009, 01:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I already explained this. If they refuse to do it for that reason we can just kill them anyway.
It ends up looking like this.
A) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla cooperates. We lose one abnormal and one normal. A decent trade for day 1.
Jack is telling the truth, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla doesn't cooperate. We lose a vanilla but it's their own fault.
C) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch the joker, joker cooperates. Not going to happen.
D) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch the joker, joker doesn't cooperate. We kill the joker. Sweet.
E) Jack is lying, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla cooperates. We lose no townie and kill an SK/joker/mafia/cultist/something! Sweet.
F) Jack is lying, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla doesn't cooperate. We lose a vanilla but it's their own fault.
G) Jack is lying, we lynch the joker, joker cooperates. We miss out on killing the joker, but we do get an SK/whatever, so good deal.
H) Jack is lying, we lynch the joker, joker doesn't cooperate. We kill the joker. Also great! And then we can get Jack tomorrow.
I'm not seeing a bunch of negative outcomes here. Am I missing something?
It ends up looking like this.
A) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla cooperates. We lose one abnormal and one normal. A decent trade for day 1.
Jack is telling the truth, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla doesn't cooperate. We lose a vanilla but it's their own fault.
C) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch the joker, joker cooperates. Not going to happen.
D) Jack is telling the truth, we lynch the joker, joker doesn't cooperate. We kill the joker. Sweet.
E) Jack is lying, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla cooperates. We lose no townie and kill an SK/joker/mafia/cultist/something! Sweet.
F) Jack is lying, we lynch a vanilla, vanilla doesn't cooperate. We lose a vanilla but it's their own fault.
G) Jack is lying, we lynch the joker, joker cooperates. We miss out on killing the joker, but we do get an SK/whatever, so good deal.
H) Jack is lying, we lynch the joker, joker doesn't cooperate. We kill the joker. Also great! And then we can get Jack tomorrow.
I'm not seeing a bunch of negative outcomes here. Am I missing something?
For option B, we still wouldn't know if Jack was lying or not. Other than that, I think this plan looks fine.
Daganev2009-03-23 05:31:49
You are all missing the possibility that Jack wins if he is lynched.
Vote Silfferas
Also, I don't like Shiri's logic, it's just bad.
If Silfferas is innocent I say we lynch shiri tommorow.
Vote Silfferas
Also, I don't like Shiri's logic, it's just bad.
If Silfferas is innocent I say we lynch shiri tommorow.