Siam2009-07-24 13:44:44
While Llandros might act scummy(to some) I think we should all consider the considerable amount and substance of the things he has contributed. I am inclined to believe that Llandros is not a part of the mafia/scum group, although that 5% really disturbs me when I think about Rika's allegiance. It is also a waste and a danger to us all if we lynch Llandros just to prove what he is saying is true which leads me to this: I think we should really consider what Rika posted regarding what -could- be a lose-lose situation between Llandros and her earlier.
So my question is this: why would we rather lynch someone who has, to an extent, proven that he has investigative powers over someone who has power to automatically kill someone with majority of the votes? I know that it'll be a compromise between an investigator with a % chance and a person whose role potentially allows us to kill two scummy people during a day(at least that's how I understand rika's power - do correct me if I'm wrong)? I think we should really start thinking of someone who -might- a scum aside from focusing on these two mentioned above.
Also, someone mentioned Noola getting boosted - has she stated this explicitly?(i don't recall her saying she got boosted)
So my question is this: why would we rather lynch someone who has, to an extent, proven that he has investigative powers over someone who has power to automatically kill someone with majority of the votes? I know that it'll be a compromise between an investigator with a % chance and a person whose role potentially allows us to kill two scummy people during a day(at least that's how I understand rika's power - do correct me if I'm wrong)? I think we should really start thinking of someone who -might- a scum aside from focusing on these two mentioned above.
Also, someone mentioned Noola getting boosted - has she stated this explicitly?(i don't recall her saying she got boosted)
Unknown2009-07-24 13:55:51
She was boosted by Aerotan before he died that night.
Shiri2009-07-24 13:59:18
A bunch of your assumptions are wrong. Llandros hasn't proven he has investigative powers at all. In fact his only verdict so far (Rika is scum) contradicts the findings of an investigator who inadvertently found a survivor - this could have been elaborate collaboration but given that Dugan misunderstood the survivor role and went off on Shamarah as though he was scum this seems unlikely - it just has that natural touch to it. He also covered Shaddus by saying he was Mello...and townie...then went back on the townie verdict...but we have yet to find any proof there (if Llandros is scum, Shaddus probably is too - also notice how Llandros only jumped to Shaddus' defence after I started trying to lynch him for his even-worse-than-Rika-level lurkiness.) ALSO we have that 75% missing roleblock in the works.
He has yet to have said anything about Rika that she didn't reveal herself except that she's scum, so we can't gain any useful insight there.
The 5%, beyond being highly suspicious in its own right because that is a really weird percentage, is something we can't plan around even if it's true and we MUST lynch either one or both of these two people. Going for neither is simply not an option and at this stage in the game we learn more from going after Llandros than any other individual because of the knock-on effects his role reveal will have on the veracity of everyone else's (for example, if he's town, Rika and Dugan are more likely scum, Shaddus and Siam are less likely scum although Shaddus isn't clear still), so there's not really a lot to say about better options than one of these two either.
I almost let up after Llandros implied that lynching him wouldn't confirm Rika's identity, but it turns out that all he can offer is this mysterious 5% chance - even if he's operating under a claim restriction the fact he can specify this fact we have to disregard without saying there's another factor too means it's just not good enough.
P.S don't actually lynch Llandros, in the retarded scenario Rika doesn't actually have that power and claimed it anyway we should at least let it play out and there's no disadvantage.
He has yet to have said anything about Rika that she didn't reveal herself except that she's scum, so we can't gain any useful insight there.
The 5%, beyond being highly suspicious in its own right because that is a really weird percentage, is something we can't plan around even if it's true and we MUST lynch either one or both of these two people. Going for neither is simply not an option and at this stage in the game we learn more from going after Llandros than any other individual because of the knock-on effects his role reveal will have on the veracity of everyone else's (for example, if he's town, Rika and Dugan are more likely scum, Shaddus and Siam are less likely scum although Shaddus isn't clear still), so there's not really a lot to say about better options than one of these two either.
I almost let up after Llandros implied that lynching him wouldn't confirm Rika's identity, but it turns out that all he can offer is this mysterious 5% chance - even if he's operating under a claim restriction the fact he can specify this fact we have to disregard without saying there's another factor too means it's just not good enough.
P.S don't actually lynch Llandros, in the retarded scenario Rika doesn't actually have that power and claimed it anyway we should at least let it play out and there's no disadvantage.
Siam2009-07-24 14:07:22
Now, you make more sense with regards to you voting for Llandros. Still, don't lynch him - he has made more sense to me than anyone else so far.
Noola2009-07-24 14:18:31
QUOTE (thisismydisplayname @ Jul 24 2009, 08:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Also, someone mentioned Noola getting boosted - has she stated this explicitly?(i don't recall her saying she got boosted)
I did specifically state it. I'll specifically state it again.
I was boosted.
Llandros2009-07-24 14:24:09
I NEVER said Rika was scum Shiri, stop making crap up.
I said she wasn't town. I mentioned the 5% when pressed but I was willing to take that chance. If you lynch Rika and she's town I'll vote for myself.
I said she wasn't town. I mentioned the 5% when pressed but I was willing to take that chance. If you lynch Rika and she's town I'll vote for myself.
Noola2009-07-24 14:34:42
Ya'll want me to daykill Rika?
Shiri2009-07-24 14:38:19
QUOTE (Llandros @ Jul 24 2009, 03:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I NEVER said Rika was scum Shiri, stop making crap up.
I said she wasn't town. I mentioned the 5% when pressed but I was willing to take that chance. If you lynch Rika and she's town I'll vote for myself.
I said she wasn't town. I mentioned the 5% when pressed but I was willing to take that chance. If you lynch Rika and she's town I'll vote for myself.
...that's not making crap up. Unless she's another survivor and she's not town, she's scum. You've been backtracking on your own claims all day but that last one was just pathetic.
Siam2009-07-24 14:41:16
QUOTE (Noola @ Jul 24 2009, 10:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I did specifically state it. I'll specifically state it again.
I was boosted.
I was boosted.
Thanks Noola! I must've missed/ forgotten it (it's been days!)
Shiri2009-07-24 14:42:19
QUOTE (Noola @ Jul 24 2009, 03:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ya'll want me to daykill Rika?
IMO: there are good sides and bad sides to that. On the minus side, Llandros is more likely to be scum from his behaviour so we're more likely to hit a townie that way, but on the plus side if he's telling the truth we save a more relevant townie ability than if Rika is, and also if he's lying we can just lynch him without giving him another night to punk someone.
I think it comes out in favour of the plus side, but wait and see if anyone else has a good reason not to first.
Siam2009-07-24 14:43:48
QUOTE (Shiri @ Jul 24 2009, 10:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
...that's not making crap up. Unless she's another survivor and she's not town, she's scum. You've been backtracking on your own claims all day but that last one was just pathetic.
I think he's been doing that (backtracking) to 'acknowledge' the really sad 5% chance thing.
Llandros2009-07-24 14:53:09
QUOTE (Shiri @ Jul 24 2009, 10:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
...that's not making crap up. Unless she's another survivor and she's not town, she's scum. You've been backtracking on your own claims all day but that last one was just pathetic.
WTF Shiri, you accuse me of lying, but when i correct you for putting words in my mouth i'm suddenly pathetic. I can only tell you what I know. I'm confident that Shiri isn't town. Now there is a tiny chance i could be wrong, but I think it's worth that chance to get you off my case.
Llandros2009-07-24 14:56:09
QUOTE (Noola @ Jul 24 2009, 10:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ya'll want me to daykill Rika?
Yes please. If Rika is town then you can lynch me. Worst case scenerio: i get lynched and Siam steps up to the plate in my place.
It's worth the risk in my opinion.
Shiri2009-07-24 14:57:28
QUOTE (thisismydisplayname @ Jul 24 2009, 03:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think he's been doing that (backtracking) to 'acknowledge' the really sad 5% chance thing.
If he was a townie though, that would be a really poor thing to do. Since he specifically cited 5%, which we have to ignore, all it serves to do is give him super weak deniability in case she does come up town - "but I said there was a chance she was town!" Yeah, no. There is no need for a townie with a legitimate investigation ability to not only make this point in the first place, but accuse people of "making crap up" when called on it.
Also, he's backtracking on more than just chances now, he's trying to say he didn't say Rika was scum, only that she wasn't town. What exactly does this accomplish? Hedging bets in case she's a survivor (when we already have one semi-confirmed?) Is there any townie-motivated benefit to backtracking on this one you can think of?
Maybe I'm just overestimating how much Llandros thinks this stuff through but I don't remember him being completely incompetent in Kiradawea's game and he had us all fooled as mechanazi in...whatever game that was. So I think it's being too naive to treat this nonsense as townie caution.
THAT SAID since Noola daykilling is an option it's probably easiest to just let her off Rika and analyse from there.
Llandros2009-07-24 14:59:35
Doh! When i said that I'm confident Shiri isn't town, i meant Rika.
Shiri2009-07-24 15:01:13
QUOTE (Llandros @ Jul 24 2009, 03:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
WTF Shiri, you accuse me of lying, but when i correct you for putting words in my mouth i'm suddenly pathetic. I can only tell you what I know. I'm confident that Shiri isn't town. Now there is a tiny chance i could be wrong, but I think it's worth that chance to get you off my case.
The only reasonable way to interpret saying someone is "making stuff up" for interpreting "not town" as "scum" in a game where we already have one survivor is a really bad scum bet-hedging. If nothing else it's super-defensive to a point that would be kind of silly of a townie about to be proven right to be saying.
I don't even know what the rest of this paragraph is about, since even as a potential sort-of-investigator you should be able to follow the risk/reward ratios of the various actions we could take here.
Shiri2009-07-24 15:01:36
QUOTE (Llandros @ Jul 24 2009, 03:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Doh! When i said that I'm confident Shiri isn't town, i meant Rika.
Oh, that explains what the rest of that paragraph is about.
Unknown2009-07-24 15:01:58
Yeah, I was confused, too.
Shiri2009-07-24 15:08:06
Kira, Allergic, since you're reading, thoughts on having Noola kill Rika?
Unknown2009-07-24 15:11:46
I'll have a thought in a moment, I have to go look at something a bit back.