Not lie, just poor contextualization.

Is that misrepresenting Arix, or a misunderstanding/bad memory?


btw, whats the current vote count?

Hello all! */in*
I'll be going back through old posts, sorry if I don't respond to anything immediately.

So, the two most useful posts I have seen for the first day are the census triggered by Casilu and Xavius's Wall of Text. There's also Daganev's view of individual posting activity. Is that about right?

Pretty much.

Being that you just recently went through the whole thread, do you have any thoughts or insights on Ayisdra, TIMDN, and Salvation?

To be fair, mine's only mildly useful in terms of the game. It was a very shiny educational opportunity which might improve gameplay here and beyond.

I decided to go back over the votes cast by Rika and Furien to see what they said/didn't say. Because it could be that Xavius is town, but Rika and Furien are not and jumped on the wagon of someone that they thought they wouldn't have to vocally support, thinking Xavius would do the work for them. This is an analysis after Dag's vote for Llandros and Xavius' vote for Dag.

We have Othero vote for Dag:



who then unvotes after Dag explains his position more:



Then we have Furien's vote for Dag. He quotes Xavius' post:



and says simply on page 4:



Rika then votes for Dag on p. 5:



So at this point both have voted for Dag based on no independent thought process that they've shared with us, rather just agreeing with someone else's analysis.

Rika doesn't post again until p. 9 where she just says:



Furien speaks for the first time since p. 4 on p. 11. He makes several posts on this page. First talking about Silferras, then talking about a time he was a vig in another game. He then makes a post about his suspicions about Dag:



This contradicts his reasoning (the quoted Xavius post) for voting for Dag in the first place.

Rika pops back in towards the bottom of p. 11 not discussing Dag:



Furien comes back on p. 13 addressing Dag:



This again seems to contradict what he said last time about the fishing.

And that's all we've gotten to date.

Both seems somewhat suspicious on this basis, but given that Furien at least did engage some on his vote for Dag, I'll:

Vote: Rika

That was a dark and bitter post you made there, Xavius. It'll take me a while to drink it all down.

One thing sort of bothers me, though. Was anyone quick to vote with instead of against Daganev, seeing as he is a more vocal player and Llandros would likely be a semi-easy lynch as the mafia-playing puppy?

Good points there too. And documented! Yay for documentation! There's a special circle of hell for people who don't cite their research. Makes finding primary sources impossible.

Anyways!

One way by which you can sometimes find selective reasoning is the way in which someone constructs their case. A contributor over at MafiaWiki disagrees with me here (but this particular guy doesn't seem very bright to me -- link), but I find that someone who stalwartly reinforces one point in an inconsistent manner is probably looking more at the target and less at the argument. Augmenting rather than evaluating an argument is bad mojo. Someone who doesn't know (i.e. non-investigative town) should generally be open to suggestion.

I'm not really feeling a Furien lynch, but in the absence of anything better,
Vote: Furien

Only 3 people agreed with my logic.
Zynna, Othero and Arix.
Zynna did not vote, Othero first voted against me, and Arix voted with me directly.

As for the current discussion I see too many possible directions to go in.

Re: Furien
Xavius makes a good argument, in general, I would have said that Furien contradicted himself, and that should be our main target.

Re: Rika
I want to go after lurkers, I don't want that to be a viable playing tactic in our games. The lack of reasoning from Rika wants me to go after her.

Re: Ayssidra, TIMDM, Salvation:
To they count as lurkers? Are there better lurkers? Should we pressure them just to make a point?

re: Arix
Llandros made a mistake in context, but Casilu brings up a separate point which might be valid.

I think Rika, Furien, and Arix might all be scummy at this point. (despite my initial biases towards feeling the need to defend Arix, just as he always finds me scummy for some reason)

I can be convinced to vote for any of them.

I'm always quiet in anything I do, most of you should realize this about me now. I make very short posts about odd things I notice, if they haven't been stated from me.

is there anything specific you was trying to 'pressure from me, Dag?

Oh you know, just the usual... thoughts, opinions, ACTIVITY!

Justice is blind, but she’s not deaf. Sometimes you have to know when not to talk. Arix has, in the past, as scum on day one, hidden to only jump on what appear to be easy bandwagons. Check my little ponies mafia on day one for an example, he quickly jumps on both the bandwagon on Shiri and the one on myself. When you look at it with his vote on Llandros, it looks like it should have been an easy one to ride to the top.

I'm feeling lazy. I think of Arix as a disinterested player in general. Are there counterexamples where he's done more than that on a day start?

Of the three named, I've only interacted with TIMDN before (in the ongoing Fanfic Mafia). I don't have a good idea of their usual play.

Arix doesn't talk much when he's a townie either.

"But this dark hour, I must do nothing
Though I've heard your unbearable cry
The power in your blood destroys all of the lies
Soon you'll see past their unmerciful eyes
Look there below, see the child
Trembling by her father's side
Now I can tell you why
She is why you must die."
"Why". Nichole Nordeman.

Vote Count

Othero: 1 (TIMDN)
Shaddus: 1 (Dugan)
Llandros: 2 (Othero, Arix)
Daganev: 2 (Furien, Rika)
Salvation: 1 (Shaddus)
Dugan: 1 (Salvation)
Arix: 1 (Llandros)
Rika: 1 (Zynna)
Furien: 1 (Xavius)

With 22 rebels, it's 12 to lynch.

Not a day start, but: page one, day one Kickapoo Mafia.



And yes, I know for a fact that he was town in that game since he was the last lynch.

Another example is all of day one in Rika's occupation mafia, he seems much more chatty there: http://forums.lusternia.com/index.php?showtopic=17483

*gets a new coffee*

However, I did just notice that the second one was also a night start, but he seems less chatty when he has something to hide, normally.

Okay so it seems like, slowly, progress is being made. I think Xavius and Daganev have backed down a little back, although it's mildly tempting to say this is in consideration of the Daganev+Xavius thought. I see Xavius seems to have brushed past that. I too would like to hear from the people who hold votes but few posts, or even the people who have recently unvoted but were up until then in that position.