What strikes me the most about all this is that, two days ago, I wasn't bothering to put my 30 sorcelglass vials into my Envirofinity Vacuum. They have a 300-decay decay, after all, and they're not terribly expensive to replace (at least, they hadn't been). Also, tossing my current clothing into the Master Ravenwood in favor of something new and exciting on occasion seemed trivial.

After yesterday, you'd better believe those vials go into the Vacuum before I log out every single time now. I have two aliases for it: One to take them out when I log in, and one to put them back when I log out. Too, my attitude towards trivial things like for-fun clothing has changed. Unless it's used for influencing specifically (and those, too, will go in the Vacuum, if I have room), I'm going to have it mended instead of throwing it away, and I'll be more conservative about buying new outfits.

Even if the commodity increases aren't nearly as bad as they seem on the whole, they'll make people think, "Hey, perhaps I should watch my spending more closely." In an environment where merchants have a tough enough time moving wares as-is, that's really not a good thing.

I think the net effect of these commodity changes will be: Consumers become significantly more conservative, merchants sell significantly fewer products (even fewer than before), and commodity stockpiling won't be affected. In fact, it might even be exacerbated. Not even the org governments will have more money, because in selling fewer items, merchants are using fewer commodities. Everyone gets a bite of the sandwich, in other words... I'm repeating myself at this point, though.

I wonder whether this factor making dressers more valuable might help cancel out with the fact that they also are more expensive now. (I know having a dresser in the spot I log off from made me spend tons more on "just because it's what my character would do" clothes than I ever had before.)

Man, Bookbinding is going to be used even less now. Joy.

It occurs to me that the equilibrium of commodity supply is probably very delicate. If Glomdoring accrues 1100 leather per RL day and craftspeople buy 1000 of it (all hypothetical averages, of course), then that comfortably meets the demand for leather. After a RL year, though, the surplus will have built up to 36,500 leather, give or take. That's a big number, but the actual moment-to-moment surplus is quite small. It's a big number because it's been slowly building up for an extremely long time, as Talan mentioned earlier in this thread.

Now, let's say that an average of 50% more leather is suddenly required for designs that incorporate leather, and that craftspeople continue making just as many leather products as before (not likely, but for the sake of argument); that works out to 1500 leather per day. Instead of operating on a commodity surplus, Glomdoring is now operating at a deficit, taking a hit of -400 to its leather stockpiles each RL day.

Three months later, that surplus of 36,500 leather has shrunk to 0... and craftspeople still demand 1,500 leather per day! In a big commune like Glomdoring, which owns tons of villages to begin with, I doubt we'd be able to pull in 50% more commodities than we could before the changes. The commodities cache would be cleaned out continually. Then, craftspeople who can't get their leather in Glomdoring will go elsewhere for it, to Hallifax for example. But Hallifax won't have any, either, because they've been in the same boat as Glomdoring for the past three months.



In summary: Enacting gigantic commodity increases because of the size of commodity stockpiles right now, without taking into account the ??? RL years that said stockpiles have been building up, is a mistake. No good can come from this, and yes, I'm working myself into a froth over it, but I genuinely can't see any good in it, for anyone.

Newbies, craftspeople, customers, organizations... who stands to have their playing experienced enhanced by this change? None of them, as far as I can tell.

The only reasonable solution is to leech off surplus commodities through another sort of implementation entirely, one that doesn't tamper with design commodities... and preferably in a way that can be tweaked on the fly, if necessary, to make sure stockpiles don't get too high, but don't get too low, either.

I don't see this as a "positive change" nor do I, to be honest, see any inherent problem with the idea that 100ish players will, at any given minute, have 100k+ gold to their name. Does having a lot of gold cause lag? Crash or cause unwanted inflation in the credit market? Stop people from buying OOC credits? If the fact that 40 people have 500k to their names is a big problem, then there must be a reason for that problem.

Honestly, the problem I see with tradeskills, one that will never go away unless the entire design system is redone, is that items require so many commodities (allegedly so that items do not take several minutes to make). This causes problems because other than cooking, the commodities-based tradeskills use so many of the same few types.

There's a significant amount of overlap because almost everyone needs the same small set of commodities. Because of this, and because the useful items require anywhere from "a lot" to "a ridiculous number" of comms, there creates a system of false scarcity. Increasing the requirement exacerbates the problem.

In addition to not alleviating what it's designed to fix, this change causes a hardship not for those 40 people who have "too much" gold, but for newbies who will now be expected to pay more for everything - anywhere from 15% - 50% more on necessities such as robes and weapons. Go-to "cheapie" robes are now significantly more expensive; nice robes are now exorbitant, because the commodities market isn't going to randomly bottom out when you increase demand.

Exactly what Felicia said. This is a short sighted way to clean out stockpiles, even if it works. No one is going to be producing 50% more comms, so once they bottom out we're boned.

I never said there was a problem. I was saying that those who were crying out about the death of tradeskills because no one will be able to afford them are overreacting.



There is no scarcity of any given commodity, 'false' or otherwise. If you cannot find it, you either are not looking very hard (I'll admit, trekking to every village is annoying) or your city is hoarding.



Of course it won't. There is, however, a mass amount of commodities - including 'needed' commodities that are 'hard to find' - simply sitting about. In my opinion (simply as a spectator), cities can choose to release them, or they can choose not to. Each has their own implications. Yes, the former means they will have to surrender their reserves - which are stockpiled for no purpose other than to have them stockpiled and see big numbers for a placebo-esque sense of self-approval (which is fine - I'm all for feeling good).

If they choose the latter, their crafters suffer and they have to face the very real reality that, if another org chooses to open their reserves up, their crafters will very likely lose a lot of business to the business-savvy merchant in another city (or commune). They may also face a lot of internal political pressure to open the reserves, and I wouldn't be surprised if someone would ended up contested over taking such a stance - I certainly would, if I was a crafter in a city where the gov't refused to release needed goods to the people.

There's been a steady and marked gain of commodities under the previous design costs - I mean, really - Glomdoring, right now, could produce 225 (and a half) masterweapons (or kata weapons) with a 100% iron design. This about doubles if we include the amount of steel in reserves, as well. With a half silk, half cloth design, they could produce more than twice that number (almost 600) splendors. If we add in rope (which is derived from hemp, a very viable clothing material) we increase that number by more than 33%, that's roughly around one -thousand- splendor robes - from one org. Those are splendors, of course - if we look at great robes instead, there's 1,211.16 great robes that can be made from Glomdoring alone. Magnagora isn't far behind, and Celest isn't too far behind that. Serenwilde's somewhere between Mag and Celest.

Magnagora would only be a hundred or so behind Glomdoring in most of these - and realize, these were very bare basic figures. If we wanted to, I could go through and add in things like gold, silver, platinum - all of which are viable materials for forging at the least - and we would see this number -more than quadruple-. That's a lot of robes!



The glut had to come from somewhere - if excess commodities are produced each tithe to be stockpiled to this amount, then excess commodities exist to handle an increase in demand. 'More' is not required.

I don't think people realize that by stockpiling commodities like this, the player governments (and they probably don't realize it, either - or they did it intentionally - and it's not necessarily a bad thing!) artificially inflated the price of commodities (and thereby crafting costs). This change, I suspect, will remove the need for cities to do so, make commercial government types attractive (they get more each tithe) and the actual cost of items won't really end up too much higher than it is not (which, honestly, will probably be resulting from paranoia and fear - "Commodities are going to cost more! We need more per design! Costs are going to go through the roof! I need to charge more now!").



I think that is a likely initial reaction, yes. I think the perceived loss of supply (or lack of change in supply but large increase in demand) will always result in a consumer panic. I think that, with a bit of control and steady, regular flow of commodities out of stocked up reserves while examining current government styles and political structures - and, similarly, looking at an increase in commodity quests and ways to encourage them - people will, over time, realize the perceived panic was not worthwhile.

For a modern day comparison - people panicked and said oil was rare. The effect was speculators drove the price of oil up. Resulting from this, oil companies are posting record-shattering profits for the past several years. Similarly, people are reacting in what could evolve into a frenzy - yes, there is one possibly outcome that is very bad. Actually there's two, in my opinion - an organization (I'm not picking on Glomdoring here, they just have the largest - in fact, Magnagora could probably do it too) could take their reserves and stitch, forge and bake up a massive pile (well over a thousand of each) of 'necessary' items and then sell them cheap. That would actually drive the price of goods down, since the organization's cost-to-make would be 0. Can't compete with that.

This is the crux of the whole problem: fundamentally different definitions of "glut" and "drought" being used by the admin and the players. When the players who play crafters talk of droughts or gluts, they're talking about the actual availability of goods, or lack thereof, to those participating in the economy. But when the admins talk about it, they're talking about total worldwide stocks, and counting those in circulation precisely the same as those wholly removed from the economy and entirely inaccessible. They do this because of the presumption that if they assume it is that way, and balance the economy accordingly, we'll be forced to make it be that way. If we did that kind of thing in the real world, we'd build an entire economy around unrealized potential future returns, and the resale of their speculative value, disconnected from actual movement in the economy. Oh... wait, we did that, didn't we? Worked out great, too.

If the commodity increases being implemented right now are high enough to force a steady reduction in stockpiles over a long period of time, what's going to happen once the stockpiles are gone?

There are three "states of being" for the inflow of a resource: Surplus, deficit, and equilibrium. If you're operating at a deficit, you're dipping into savings to meet supply. Once the savings run out, you have a serious problem on your hands.

That is the problem I foresee.



How has stockpiling artificially inflated the price of commodities? They're already completely dirt-cheap as it is. There are always plenty of commodities for sale at reasonable prices.

If people buy 1000 leather from Glomdoring and Glomdoring has 100 leather left over at the end of the day, and this becomes a pattern, what should Glomdoring do with that extra leather? Throw it away? Drastically reduce prices so that they sell every scrap of leather day in and day out, a huge hassle of micromanagement? Or save it for a rainy day?

Well, now we know the answer: Reduce prices or throw it away. Save up too much, and bad things will happen.

There's no conspiracy to stockpile, it's just how the game works. It's the natural order of things, and there are ways to combat this without dramatically jacking up commodity requirements.



Unfortunately, Lusternia is a much simpler (and closed-off, and controlled) economic system than that of the real world. People panic and act the fool in real life because they don't have a damned clue what the facts are.

In this case, we know exactly what the facts are: Only one basic variable has been changed in Lusternia's economic equation, that variable being universal comm requirements. Everything else remains exactly the same. Until now, Lusternia's economy has been very close to equilibrium, just with a modest surplus in general. But this huge change in comm requirements is going to reverse that, and then reverse is past zero (or if not that, have other permanent negative effects).

Good god.

I know sucessful orgs have a lot of coms, but gaudi is not successful, nor is it likely to be in the forseeable future. This is murderous to my whelps. The effort to get geared up was steeper for knights before anyway.

I wouldn't call it a 'modest surplus'. I think the economy would be just fine if we deleted everything that was in every city's reserves, really. My suggestion of letting it out at a steady pace was to handle the panic that has already been whipped up. I don't really understand what the issue is with reducing prices - I don't consider 185g per steel 'dirt cheap', as it can certainly get cheaper ('dirt cheap' to me is in the range of 5-10g, which is where eggs/milk/meat probably are, and as they should be I imagine). They can certainly sell them cheaper too, if they'd like.

The commodity reserves were built up over time by 'skimming' off tithes. If they receive 1100 commodities, they put 300 in reserves and sold the remaining 800. If sale stock hit 0, sale stock hit 0. Which I suspect it rarely did.

One alternative I can think of, in regards to addressing commodity shops, would be to implement new mechanics and increase costs elsewhere. So say when constructs come back, it now costs (arbitrary numbers) 15,000 steel and 15,000 wood to build the Tainted Altar, 15,000 marble and 15,000 wood to build the Moon Altar, 30,000 meat and 15,000 wood to build the Crow Nest, etc - in addition to the gold and power costs it already would. Or commodity upkeeps - you are a city, after all. Your citizenry need food - so if you do not supply 300 meat, 300 grain, 300 eggs per day, vital quest mobs for your epic quest start disappearing, as citizenry are too sick/starving to come out, etc. Could also start requiring commodities for guard upkeeps, along with the current gold/power - they do need to eat, after all. Also, patron purchases. Adding forest rooms for communes should take wood and eggs and vegetables and fruits - nutrients for growing trees, mulch... So instead of 150,000 gold, 150 wood/150 marble they'd become 150 wood, 2,000 egg, 2,000 vegetable, 2,000 fruit., 150,00 coins. City rooms, Celest might need 1,000 marble per room plus 150,000 coins, Mag might need iron/steel in similar numbers, Gaudiguch marble, Hallifax 1,000 gemstones per room...

I can't see any of that as being more desirable (honestly, I can see the very real implications of that - it'd basically bring expansions to a screeching hault, encourage stockpiling and further wound crafting beyond the direct removal of commodities from the market) than the chosen route, which I still do not believe is going to have the drastic results you all seem so keen on believing are to come. I think you're all greatly overreacting - and I think in a couple of months the feared 'bottoming out' won't come to bear.

That said, if any organization does 0 commodity quests, and is a benign conquest gov't, I believe they should have a lack of steel, iron, gems, silk, cloth in their city/commune shop. I certainly believe a commercial gov't should be the ideal haven for crafters.

I resent the implication that the lack of certain commodities generally, is because cities hoard them for no particular reason. Since the introduction of skillflex, our reserves have basically been bleeding commodities. We had 35k wood, and are now down to 28k. We had 65k cloth, and are now down to 40k (splendours). We had 30k gems, and are now down to 22k, and these are just the standouts. This surge of use will taper off some - but increased consumption appears here to stay.

Wood is one of the commodities that we players consider scarce.

The primary producer of wood is Estelbar. About 200 wood per rl day are created there, some being tithed to the controlling org, some going directly into the village market. Shanthmark, Paavik, and Delport produce wood - at a rate of 50-100 per rl day. Rikenfriez seems to be about 30-80. So, best case scenario - 600 wood commodities are produced in one day, with only a percentage of these becoming available in markets, and then factor in things like enemy statuses (can't buy), general access (guards), opportunity (they produce at intervals, not constantly - if you miss the influx, you're out of luck), and you really ARE dealing with a fairly small amount of available commodities at a given time.

The floor price for wood is 28 gold in villages. People will spend almost 4 times this much (of course not everyone, but certainly some people) just to get it - because if they leave, and try to go find some trees to cut down for raw lumber to make it cheaper, it may well have been bought in the mean time. We are selling wood at our market for 60gp per. We have tried selling it lower, and it gets completely bought out. We release it in 500 or 1000 increments whenever available stock needs replenishing. This is rationing, not hoarding. We don't release it all today so there will be some to release tomorrow.

You're pretty far out of it if you truly believe that freeing up all the current reserved stock will do anything to increase general availability of the most-used commodities. I am reminded of Richter's experiment with credits. Throwing up 700 on the market for a comparably cheap price didn't lower the price of credits - they were bought up almost immediately, primarily by the already-wealthy - and either consumed or resold for a higher price. That is what happens when the demand is perpetually high. Trusting people to buy only what they need is frankly naive. It is only when the availability of a commodity is increased generally that the value of that commodity decreases -- when supply consistently outpaces demand.. Anything else is a blip - a temporary boon to the few who will benefit.

I am not panicked about the new requirements. I'm considering this to be the rainy day for which we have prepared. To a degree, the changes may help reduce the stock of some of the mid-range used commodities. But I stand by my initial point - which was that this change will do almost nothing to prevent the continued surplus of less used commodities - and will in the mean time make the most used commodities even more difficult to obtain, which annoys everyone. But we will get over it, mostly. Except maybe Felicia. And Lendren. And anyone who ever wants to have a dining room table or bookcase made ever again.

Well, fingers crossed it is, then.

I'll say this: If I were an org leader and Estarra said, "Dump 90% of your current stockpile in the river and quit stockpiling in the future, or we'll drastically increase comm requirements for crafted items," I'd beat feet to the river so fast I'd be naked when I got there. My clothes would still be hovering in midair at the Master Ravenwood Tree.

*perk*

I am reminded of when I bought out every village, our commune, used my own reserves, and then had to buy someone else's reserves of wood in order to refurnish the guildhall. I found out just how rare it was that day, both in my own uses, and all the angry aethers about there being no wood...

Well, I'll say this - your concerns have been heard. If nothing else, I've heard them, and I know they've been brought up. I still think we should see how things play out - wood being a rarity is, yes, something that may or may not need to be addressed. Still, at a glance, there's 1,666 pieces of raw lumber sitting almost entirely (all but 45 or so) in player stockrooms.

Communes also produce wood (and are the only sort of org that has any inside-their-org production of commodities, particularly something so needed) - obviously - so those numbers are at least -somewhat- skewed. Similarly, Tolborolla can be used to produce an extra 35 or so raw lumber per run of the quest (I remember originally working the heck out of that poor quest, selling it to Estelbar and driving the price way down, then buying it out). It can also be used to produce silk. I'm just skeptical is all - and in an ideal world, yes, Glomdoring probably, in its current state politically/governmentally, will feel the pressure of a commodity shortage, if they do not hold on to a lot of villages. Similarly, I imagine some cities will start to stock a 'lot' more than others - like Hallifax, since it is a commercial gov't.

Maybe one way to address the problem of people hoarding commodities (presuming it is a problem) is to limit the amount of pocketbelts people can wear. Currently, if my memory serves, there isn't one. Not really suggesting it (or speaking against it), but it's certainly one way of approaching that.

Estarra's always said she wanted to do a review of the construct conflict system and bring them back, when we have the time and resources to do it!

Well, it's scarce. If I were an artisan, I'd certainly buy my wood whenever I could get it for a good price, stockpile it, and use it when needed. Otherwise, you run the risk of needing wood on a day when it's all been cleaned out from everywhere to, for example, re-furnish Iktomi's guild hall.

Why was the Riken shop shut down?